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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 7 - October 13

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Matteo Berettinni (-3.5) to beat Cristian Garin || 1.8 @ OLYBET!  

Ruhless italian smashed Jan Stefan in Shanghai opener 6:2 6:1,  while Garin overcame Pablo Cuevas 6:4 6:1

Theese two met before once where south american won on clay in Munich! Things got bit different since, Matteo started play very good tennis on hard courts, and had that heroic US OPEN.He plays with such a power and makes u work every point,  also Cristian isn't that good on hard. SO i pick Barrettini to smash past him in style! GL! 

 

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Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.44 with Pinnacle

I think that Hurkacz was quite lucky to get drawn against Monfils in the previous round, as the Frenchman always has some problems, but Tsitsipas is going to be a much tougher proposition, as he looks to finish the final few tournaments on a high and as he's on a very decent run at the moment. He also has a 4-1 lead in the H2H, so I was also considering some sort of a handicap, but I decided to go for the outright instead given that it wouldn't surprise me that much to see Stefanos conserve some energy if he goes behind in one of the sets.

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Can anyone explain why Carreno Busta is being backed v Thiem ?  (from 9/4 into 7/4) 

He's playing the No.5 player in the world, someone he has never beaten on the pro tour (Thiem has a 5-0 record), and Thiem has just won the Chinese Open.

This looks a terrible match up for PCB, what am I missing ?

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Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat Elena Rybakina at 2.18 with Coolbet

 

Anna-Lena is on fire now and yesterday she had the audience completely on her side. I think she can play another good match today.

Daniel Elahi Galan to beat Juan Pablo Varillas at 2.02 with Coolbet

Juan Pablo is coming from his first challenger title last week and I think he's fatigued mentally at least now and I think Daniel E Galan is a better player. Also the h2h speaks in favor of the colombian as he's beaten JP Varillas both times they've met on clay. On hard JP Varillas won but hard is surely a surface DE Galan doesn't master in any way. Clay in Dominican republic shouldn't make JP Varillas favorite although he won his first challenger title last week on clay. Seems best to be on DE Galan.

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Alexander Zverev to beat Andrey Rublev at 1.58

Zverev and Rublev will be playing for the 3rd time in their career, after Monte Carlo in 2016 and Beijing in 2017. The German has never lost, not even a heat. This is the 3rd year in a row that Andy Rublev has participated in this Masters 1000 Chinese, and the 1st time he reaches this level of competition.

This week, he has already won (solidly) against Borna Coric and John Millman. Zverev, for his part, plays this tournament in Shanghai for the 4th year in a row. The German has a semi-final to defend this week, and he was eliminated twice at this level of the competition. In addition, he won his first match of the week against Jérémy Chardy, in a meeting that was decided after two tie-breaks.

We are dealing with two guys who come back very well. Concretely, I am convinced that these two players can leave with the victory. Andrey Rublev is sharpened to the service this week, and takes advantage of the speed of this surface to release a monstrous forehand. But I still have a preference for Alexander Zverev. Apart from the fact that he has never lost to this opponent before and he seems to have regained his determination, the German knows very well how to use his backhand. This side should allow him to be very effective to accelerate the game and control the ardor of the Russian. Rublev is much less comfortable when he has to play on his backhand. He has a tendency to abuse forehand offsets and this should penalize him against Zverev.

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Roberto Bautista to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.00

These two players have already clashed 3 times before. Berrettini has won twice, still on clay, while Bautista won the only game played on hard (in Doha, last season). Berrettini is taking part in the Shanghai Masters 1000 for the 1st time in his career, and he seems to like it. The Italian has won this 1/8 final after victories over Struff and Garin. All without losing a set. Bautista, meanwhile, knows a little better this Chinese tournament. This is indeed his 6th participation. He had not managed to pass this stage last season, and his best performance is a final in 2016. Moreover, the Spaniard took advantage of his ranking to skip the 1st round, and won his first match against Opelka (in 2 sets and without tie-break).

After mediocre passages in St. Petersburg and Beijing, Berrettini seems to find colors in Shanghai. The Italian seems to appreciate this fast surface and it shows in his performances. I speak in particular of its effectiveness in the service but also during its offensive phases. On paper, Berrettini seems to be an interesting favorite, especially on this surface that favors large servers.

However, I sincerely believe that Bautista has what it takes to win the match. Even if the Italian plays well this week, he is not yet at the level of the one he proposed to us at the US Open. Then, because Bautista is not to take for a 3 weeks rabbit. The Spaniard has proved against this monster Opelka he had the weapons to counter the big servers. But he also showed that he was comfortable on fast surfaces and that he knew how to hold his games of service (it only has to see his statistics in this area during his last match). Finally, Bautista knows how to play with his head and is a very good tactician of the baseline. He knows that Berrettini's forehand is a danger and that he will have to insist on his setback. I will therefore focus on the experience and tactics of Bautista, to counter the ardor of a Berrettini who obviously has every chance in this game.

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Fabio Fognini (+4.5) to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.87 with Pinnacle

While I do understand why Medvedev is such a big favourite here, Fognini loves playing against hyped guys and this is a situation he should enjoy being in. I remember backing him against Zverev in a similar position and he didn't deliver on that occasion, but Medvedev wasn't really that great in his last outing here and who knows, perhaps the fatigue is starting to catch up with him, which would only be logical. There's also quite some value in the outright, of course, but I'm going to play it safe this time around and go for the fairly large handicap instead. Medvedev is cool and all that, but Fognini has shown a surprising amount of fighting spirit against both Murray and Khachanov, so, hopefully, he isn't going to start clowning around now that I'm on him.

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Alexander Zverev to beat Roger Federer at 2.65 with Parions Sport

Zverev is young, but he has already played Federer 9 times and the German won 4 times. For his 8th participation, Federer reached the 1/4 final for the 5th time (and raised the trophy twice). This week, Switzerland won against Ramos-Vinolas and Goffin. The latter may blame himself for not having managed to realize one of the opportunities that would have allowed him to get his hands on the first set (and perhaps change the turn of this meeting). For his part, Zverev is still in the race to find the semi-finals he had left last season (his best performance in the Masters 1000 by the way). In his first two games of the week, the German beat Chardy and Rublev.

Federer will obviously be favorite to pass this round. Apart from the fact that he remains an exceptional player, he has very good sensations on this fast court. This week, the Swiss has a very offensive spirit and is very comfortable at the service (which has also saved his previous games). I must admit that I have a little crush on Zverev since the beginning of the week. He has regained his determination that he lost during a rather dark period of his season, and this allows him to properly handle complicated situations. But that's not all. The German is very solid at the service (which has not always been the case) and this is a sign that he is good in his head. In his last match, Zverev did very well against a dangerous Rublev. Even if the latter has made many mistakes, the German has mostly managed to compete against his power and aggression. So I think Zverev would be able to cope with the Maestro's explosive shots.

Federer is playing at a good level but has shown some signs of excitement in his last matches. Faced with Goffin for example, Federer has tried a lot, and has not always succeeded (making some annoying mistakes). I also think that Goffin did not have a very conquering mindset that Zverev might have in this new encounter. Federer takes advantage of the surface to shorten exchanges. But this week, Zverev manages to hold him and force his opponents to put a little more physically. I'm afraid that the current world number 3 is in a real trap, and he can not follow.

This is obviously a risky bet, but I believe it.

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8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Do not post your own links to the bookies please though, that is strictly forbidden :lol. Just post the name, that is enough :ok.

Ok sorry what do you think about the semi-finals for Linz? The rating of 2 for Alexandrova seduces me but I do not follow as much WTA...

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Cori Gauff (+5) to beat Kiki Bertens at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Might be my last bet for the week honestly, but I'm not sure that Gauff deserves to be this big of an underdog against Bertens, who struggled quite heavily yesterday and who might not exactly fancy having to deal with some big hitting again. She still has some season goals to deal with and that might help her or hurt her here, I don't know, but the fatigue might be starting to accumulate and Gauff is exactly the player that could take advantage of that. She's playing with house money after two lucky occasions and can hit quite freely, so I think that there's a good chance that she isn't going to lose by a big margin, if at all.

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8 hours ago, FrenchPunter said:

Ok sorry what do you think about the semi-finals for Linz? The rating of 2 for Alexandrova seduces me but I do not follow as much WTA...

I took this bet as well when saw price...but unfortunately looks I did it to early as Alexandrova looks not in best physical shape, yesterday she got medical break during her match, so I just wandering about my money now...on other side, Mladenovic is in good shape, and if she will find first serve much earlier than yesterday...Alexandrova will be in big trouble.

Now I see some value on Mladenovic.

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Alexander Zverev to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.70 with Parions Sport

Berrettini is in the semifinals of this Shanghai Masters 1000 for his 1st participation. The Italian won against Struff, Garin, Bautista and Thiem (who may regret the opportunities he had in the 1st set). For his part, Zverev managed to offer an incredible level of play to win against Federer this Friday. After the difficult loss of the 2nd set tie-break, he was able to recover in very quickly to make sure to make life easier. Before that, he won against Chardy and Rublev (2-0).

Moreover, the German found this level of the competition he had left last year. Matteo Berrettini is gaining momentum in this tournament, and is getting closer to his top level of the last US Open. He is extremely sharp at the service (especially on this fast surface) and his power is doing damage (as against Thiem).

I will still turn to Zverev to go to the final, because it is he who makes the best impression since the beginning of the tournament. The German has proved this week that he knows how to control the big servers (his last 3 opponents are pretty good in this area of play), the finesse of Federer and the impressive power of the forehand Rublev. Also, Alexander Zverev knows how to hold his service games again. In the exchanges, he will undoubtedly use his powerful and explosive setback to put that of Berrettini in difficulty. Not sure that the latter manages to systematically make his shifts in forehand. Finally, the Italian is still feverish when it comes to conclude. As if he put unnecessary pressure on his shoulders while he did the hardest. Zverev looks good in his head right now, and much more determined.

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10 minutes ago, FrenchPunter said:

Alexander Zverev to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.70 with Parions Sport

Berrettini is in the semifinals of this Shanghai Masters 1000 for his 1st participation. The Italian won against Struff, Garin, Bautista and Thiem (who may regret the opportunities he had in the 1st set). For his part, Zverev managed to offer an incredible level of play to win against Federer this Friday. After the difficult loss of the 2nd set tie-break, he was able to recover in very quickly to make sure to make life easier. Before that, he won against Chardy and Rublev (2-0).

Moreover, the German found this level of the competition he had left last year. Matteo Berrettini is gaining momentum in this tournament, and is getting closer to his top level of the last US Open. He is extremely sharp at the service (especially on this fast surface) and his power is doing damage (as against Thiem).

I will still turn to Zverev to go to the final, because it is he who makes the best impression since the beginning of the tournament. The German has proved this week that he knows how to control the big servers (his last 3 opponents are pretty good in this area of play), the finesse of Federer and the impressive power of the forehand Rublev. Also, Alexander Zverev knows how to hold his service games again. In the exchanges, he will undoubtedly use his powerful and explosive setback to put that of Berrettini in difficulty. Not sure that the latter manages to systematically make his shifts in forehand. Finally, the Italian is still feverish when it comes to conclude. As if he put unnecessary pressure on his shoulders while he did the hardest. Zverev looks good in his head right now, and much more determined.

Zverev in the final where he will take revenge over tired Tsitsipas :)

 

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Alexander Zverev to beat Daniil Medvedev at 2.40 with Parions Sport

This will be the 5th time that these two players will compete, the 1st of the year. Medvedev has never managed to beat Zverev. Medvedev seems unbeatable lately. He is in great shape and plays with great success. It is true that Zverev has always managed to win but they have not played since the Masters 1000 of Canada in 2018. Since then, the Russian has become another player. It is difficult to see him lose the final. Still, I do not think we will attend a one-way match.

For me, these two players have arguments to win the trophy. I'm going towards a Zverev victory because he has always managed to control Medvedev's tennis. In addition, the German has found colors in this Masters 1000 Shanghai. He is well in his head (and his statistics in the service are the proof) and showed a big determination. When he's like that, he's an entirely different player who can compete with the best (he recently showed that against Federer).

We are dealing with two players who serve very well. That's why I expect at least a tie-break in this meeting. But there will undoubtedly be many exchanges where these two opponents will have to take the game on their own if they wish to earn points. Again, they both have the ability to make winning shots. Zverev may be slightly less regular in trading but is more explosive. If he manages to play at his best, and I believe in it, then he will have a good chance of succeeding in what he does.

In addition, Medvedev won 50% of the finals he played (out of 12), while Zverev is 65% (out of 17).

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Totally unrelated to this week - or indeed any recent weeks - but I came across the Dimitrov v King match from before the US Open again and the numbers are staggering. It's possibly the most ridiculous tennis match I've ever seen from a heavy favourite. Dimitrov gave up 23 break points across the match, with those points spread across 10 of his 11 service games. I've never seen anything like it - maybe others have. I've no idea what was wrong with Dimitrov that day but that performance really was something else and is possibly Exhibit A in terms of not betting on heavy favourites - you just don't know what frame of mind they're in or if they're carrying niggles that they don't talk about or if they're totally without motivation for whatever reason. The bottom line - at least for me about that match - is that Dimitrov just wasn't there physically or mentally or both. If he was, there's no way to my mind he cedes those numbers on serve and there's no way he loses. I wouldn't have expected to see those numbers if he'd played against Djokovic or Nadal or Federer - and of course he played Federer in the US Open shortly after and won :eek

Edited by Torque

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Somewhere I once read the memories of Genie Bouchard where she described her disappointment because when Grigori visited her once, he preferred watching TV series instead of making love to her. Therefore his behavior will never surprise me :)

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Gauff to beat Ostapenko @1.9 bet365

Gauff looked solid whole tournament. She did beat Bertens and her opponents were more solid. She is confident and worked her way with confidence. For Ostapenko this tournament is sort of comeback.  But her unstability, underconfidence and double faults should make the difference.

 

Edited by LuckyLoser

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