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StevieDay1983

LOI, NIFL, and WPL Predictions > Sep 27th - 29th

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In Wales...

The Friday night matches went to form, although I thought Bala and Caernarfon were too short.  As I went to Bala I used up a free bet backing them to add interest, but that after-event brag comes with an acknowledgement it's a bet I wouldn't otherwise have put on.  It's also tempered by admitting that I was nearly tempted by Bangor in the North and Midland as Bet365 offered what looked like a decent price (seven-nil cough) although Bangor did finish with eight men.

At the bottom I can't predict Airbus v Carmarthen so I'm keeping away.  Carmarthen already have a coup[le of credible away draws (but not much else) and at the price if I was going to bet it would be the away side DNB.

Cardiff MU have maintained their good form of last season, and Cefn Druids are hovering above the relegation zone, again like last season.  The students' home form has been consistent rather than spectacular (a couple of 1-0 wins and a draw, albeit against TNS).  The Druids have only one win all season.  A home win is highly likely, but as with a lot of games I think the price is too short.

Connah's Quay have returned to form after a slow start.  They play Penybont who I saw hold out against for long periods against Caernarfon but still lose, and Connah's Quay will be a further step up.

While I don't like the individual prices, a Cardiff MU/Connah's Quay double pays out about 1.15/1 in most places and I've taken it.

The big game is TNS v Barry, and I've really stuck my neck out and gone for Barry/draw double chance at the general 16/5.  The reasons to back TNS are still good ones: they're rammed with good players; they beat Barry 6-2 in a pre-season friendly; I still think Barry's place at the top comes with a caveat they've not been fully tested against the stronger sides.  However, I give Barry a chance for a few reasons:  TNS 'only' won 75% of their home matches last season and have looked a little shaky at times this season (losing at Bala, going two down to Carmarthen, one down to Penybont (I think), going out of the League Cup to Bangor with what the web site suggests was a strong side); they're apparently suffering from injuries (their web site suggests a strong starting XI but no depth on the bench), and the wins this season haven't always looked convincing scorelines on paper.  So, if TNS are going to be taken on, this might be the time to do it.

I was going to go to TNS but instead have opted for Corwen v Gresford in the North and Mid as Oswestry is a bit far on a day when the roads are busy with holidaymakers leaving.

Edited to correct typos

 

Edited by Wiltshire Shot

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Connah's Quay vs Pen-y-Bont

Firstly, I just want to say that @Wiltshire Shot, that's a heck of a round-up mate! Even venturing into the regional Welsh leagues. You're mad... but that's exactly what we love around here! I'm going to focus my preview on the interesting clash between Connah's Quay and Pen-y-Bont tomorrow that kicks off at 2:30pm BST from the Deeside Stadium in Connah's Quay.

Connah's Quay, as Wiltshire Shot mentioned, have re-discovered a bit of form. It's now 10 matches unbeaten in all competitions for the Nomads who are progressing really well under former Swansea player Andy Morrison. The club remain unbeaten in the league but due to the large number of draws they've ground out they are only placed 6th in the league and 4 points off the pace of league leaders Barry Town.

Pen-y-Bont had secured their first league win of the season in emphatic fashion at home against Airbus UK in their last league game. Rhys Griffiths and his players would have undoubtedly wanted to carry that victory into their Welsh League Cup 3rd Round tie away to Newtown but unfortunately they couldn't build on it and lost 2-1. Pen-y-Bont are slowly adjusting to this level of football but this will be a long trek to a tough away game.

I'm going to have to share Wiltshire Shot's view and back Connah's Quay here. They are looking like dark horses for a potential title push this season and they've looked very good at home. Pen-y-Bont have just been left wanting all season. Is it a lack of quality? Maybe. I can see Connah's Quay winning this game with relative ease so I'll be backing a handicap.

Connah's Quay -1 @ 1.83 with Betfair

Connah's Quay HT/FT @ 1.83 with Paddy Power

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