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ELO Ratings Based Football Picks


NickP

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On 8/7/2020 at 10:25 PM, NickP said:

Ok just setting it back up and one pick appears for Sunday.

 

These are based on the profitable selections from the last run, so here we go and good luck

Date League Selection Bet Type Odds Stake
09-Aug-20 Swedish Allsvenskan Elfsborg Away Lay at 1.72 £10.00

Elfsborg won 1-0 with 10 men!

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On 8/10/2020 at 11:57 PM, NickP said:
           
No bets until Friday          
     

 
   

No bets given the splintered nature of the various seasons.

Appreciate one showing as a Home Win above, but as my cross check with another site has nothing, will not be advising it.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, NickP said:

image.thumb.png.781a53cbe87918fb26f23fb5e6401d82.png

This is what I am getting for 16th August, given my settings are as below

image.thumb.png.4d30b68a2a1dc5e6646a3739daec969d.png

I see u added a columm to check if it is a bet or no bet, u take bets only if it has the same result in the 4avg and 2avg? Despite the fact you cross with some sites like u said.

Sry for the questions, kinda new to the ELO system. Still learning

 

Keep the bets and the good work, thanks :D

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Ok was going to write a Word doc and attach, but you cannot attach word docs, so here goes....

First off grab the sheet created by @froment from this link :-

https://rvasi.me/files/Punters-Lounge-parse-ELO-ratings.xlsx

This has an instructions page which is very simple to follow. I assume a level of Excel ability in the below guide.

All I have done, having unprotected the sheet as described, is add in a column (N) "Selection" on the "ELO Ratings" sheet, and put the following function in each row (you can copy and paste this into Row 5, then drag down the page to duplicate for all rows :-

=IF((K5=""),"No Bet",IF((L5="Draw")*AND(M5="Draw"),"Draw",IF((J5>=K5)*AND(K5<-29.99)*AND(L5="Away")*AND(M5="Away"),"Away Win",IF((J5<=K5)*AND(K5>29.99)*AND(L5="Home")*AND(M5="Home"),"Home Win","No Bet"))))

image.thumb.png.5f45877524a18a9a8168f5ee57107dd5.png

As you will see in the above example I have grabbed the data for next Saturday, 22nd August

This has given me a selection of Home, Draws and Away Wins, based on these settings

image.thumb.png.765fe187e9073b6461c652b7001767a5.png

Now obviously you can set these to what you want, but based on the ELO Ratings I found these to be a decent range to play with.

Then I select all selections that are not "No Bet"

image.png.acbc3f0a4b02986548684f9f95afbe7a.png

image.thumb.png.6c934e9570f2d2118b2570d93559458a.png

and then copy and past the boxed data, into this sheet....

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12SyZ9_4JG3SZ_VX96MPb8rUJqBJio5Vv/view?usp=sharing

image.thumb.png.9dc4d91046380bb7ea5ef8141a59aec8.png

For examples sake I have entered my own values into Columns P and Q, to represent the rating and result for the game from www.soccervista.com, plus the Odds in Column R

image.thumb.png.31571371f094eac53ff6a29fc2fcf7b5.png

So having at this point identified suitable games via the ELO Rating, I then validate that against the Soccervista ratings, and end up with the set of selections in Columns AA to AN, which, based on my criteria in the spreadsheet, get auto populated into these columns

image.thumb.png.babfcf4b01f53b7bd3dec903289a5da2.png

And the picks and values are as displayed here.

As you can see, for my criteria, some games are discounted. But this sheet is competely editable to what you want to do.

Once you know the result of the game you can input the "H"ome and "A"way goals into columns T and U and everything should update for you, including all the stats at the top of the sheet

image.thumb.png.c111160ac8a814896931f544d8c8a85b.png

image.thumb.png.6bb34d65d284c554c5c2b80827d36351.png

Now I have been updating these sheets as I write this guide, so if you spot anything please advise, or you can update yourself.

Hope that helps!

 

To use this sheet yourself just delete the data from Columns B to N (some columns copied from the first sheet are hidden in here, do not remove them or the copy and paste will not work) and P,Q,R,T, and U and it is ready to go.

 

 

 

Edited by NickP
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