NickP Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) Astounding result for Dijon beating PSG 2-1, but I did tell you....? That is why I never like backing away at odds on, look at the value in these so far... Level for these games with a couple of Draws disappearing late on. 3 of these just one goal away so close but no cigar, including Palmeiras which would have been a huge win. Away Lays proving a real winner at the moment, with a few more lined up this weekend. Edited November 1, 2019 by NickP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 1, 2019 Author Share Posted November 1, 2019 This weekends selections thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 Results for the weekend, rescued by the 8/1 winner on Osasuna +3.5 goals without doubt! So overall results mean slightly down for the weekend. froment 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 Just one selection this week due to the European games, Will give me some time to evaluate the results to date and see what tweaks can be made to improve the results further. Draws not exactly working so will decide going forward what to do with these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 On 11/3/2019 at 8:30 PM, NickP said: Just one selection this week due to the European games, Will give me some time to evaluate the results to date and see what tweaks can be made to improve the results further. Draws not exactly working so will decide going forward what to do with these. 1-2 was the result so that gives us an overall total sheet of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 (edited) Ok so following on from analysis, a slight tweak to things, and hopefully an improvement based on history to date. Home wins have been striking well but obviously we need to do something to up the odds given the prices. Based on what I have seen in nearly 700 games to date, we will be backing the Home Wins, but throwing in a Bet Builder of +2.5 goals in the game as well. + 3.5goals has been profitable as per above, but we up the strike rate and profit by reigning it in by a goal. So again based on the prices available on Bet365, we will back Home Win + 2.5goals in the game, along with the Away Lays which have proven very profitable to date. Selections for Friday / Saturday are.... Sundays should go up tomorrow night once the odds have been updated. As ever, do your best with the odds wherever you can find it better. Edited November 7, 2019 by NickP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 (edited) Full list for the weekend, Edited November 8, 2019 by NickP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Results updated for Saturday's matches. Note we nearly double the profit, even though Monaco didnt come in, but was a Home win, due to the addition of goals market, based on what these were purely to win. Long may it continue! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 @NickP Have to say excellent returns so far. Would you explain something for me please. Your away lays ...... you are backing the away teams not to win ? On November 3rd you posted Lausanne Sports as an Away Lay @ 1.4 . £10 stake returned £35. ? Am I missing something ? Keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 (edited) Hi. Yes "Away Lay" means just that, backing the away teams NOT to win. Either can do this by laying the team on betfair, or backing double chance home and draw with normal bookmakers. So the result "W" is the result of the bet rather than the selection. So we won as Lausanne lost 3-2. Good luck. Edited November 10, 2019 by NickP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 hours ago, NickP said: Hi. Yes "Away Lay" means just that, backing the away teams NOT to win. Either can do this by laying the team on betfair, or backing double chance home and draw with normal bookmakers. So the result "W" is the result of the bet rather than the selection. So we won as Lausanne lost 3-2. Good luck. Thanks I understand that but £10 stake @ 1.4 surely pays 14.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 No. Remember you are being the bookmaker, so you are laying the odds of 1.40 not backing at 1.40. https://betting.betfair.com/how-to-use-betfair-exchange/beginner-guides/placing-a-lay-bet-010819-51.html Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Weekends results in full, not a great Sunday to say the least, but this is a long term thing.... Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 Ok we are back in action, Friday's selections below, the weekend to arrive by Friday night. Rey86 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 Ok the rest of the weekends selections, some biggies in there if they go in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 This weekends results Nice result in Poland for us given the number of actual winners, but this is slowly proving the point that adding the goals in is given us value. Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Hi there, looks very interesting. Not sure how you work your lays out? Lay Rangers for £10 at 1.14 loses £1.40 (unless your stake is a liability lay). Liking the Home + 2.5 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 hours ago, Pirate53 said: Hi there, looks very interesting. Not sure how you work your lays out? Lay Rangers for £10 at 1.14 loses £1.40 (unless your stake is a liability lay). Liking the Home + 2.5 bets. £10 is your liability for laying Rangers at odds of 1.14 so if Rangers either lost or drew the game your win would be £71.42 (£10 divided by .14) Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 This weekends selections. Good luck all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 Results for the weekend Not good at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 Ok one game so far this week, with a couple more likely to come up in Brazil once the odds are up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 Lorient Won 4-0 so that went down Two in Brazil thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted December 5, 2019 Author Share Posted December 5, 2019 (edited) Ok after these two tonight that is it for the time being. Feel I have lost my way with this from the original plan, so best to back off and refocus. What we have learned though, on the basis of these Ratings, plus Soccervista, is it is a good source of information, finding the best way to use it is the knack. Draws on both sites for a games prediction are profitable, as is laying well rated away teams (backing odds on teams away from home NOT to win) Keep going with that and you wont go far wrong. Back soon! Edited December 11, 2019 by NickP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
note3user Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 @NickP Are you still using the spreadsheet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 On 5/28/2020 at 6:30 PM, note3user said: @NickP Are you still using the spreadsheet Hi there, sorry for the delay in replying, Covid, Working from home, Sim Racing and Golf have got in the way hehe. Yes I still have the sheet, and with us looking toward new seasons starting hope to review previous and start up again shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
note3user Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 Hi thats ok its been a busy time With your sheet have you made any chances to it ? if yes could you share a copy, please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted August 7, 2020 Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 On 8/5/2020 at 1:59 PM, note3user said: Hi thats ok its been a busy time With your sheet have you made any chances to it ? if yes could you share a copy, please No changes to the Sheet, still using the one from Froment in post 5 in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
note3user Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 Cheers, what are your setting set to in setting please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted August 7, 2020 Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 (edited) These are my settings from when I was doing things last season. As I say used this as a starter then see how it compared to other ratings and went from there. Home win 4 Avg 2 Avg ELO lower limit 19.99 29.99 Draw 4 Avg 2 Avg ELO lower limit -4.99 -3.99 ELO upper limit 4.99 3.99 Away win 4 Avg 2 Avg ELO upper limit -19.99 -29.99 Edited August 7, 2020 by NickP note3user 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickP Posted August 7, 2020 Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 (edited) Ok just setting it back up and one pick appears for Sunday. These are based on the profitable selections from the last run, so here we go and good luck Date League Selection Bet Type Odds Stake 09-Aug-20 Swedish Allsvenskan Elfsborg Away Lay at 1.72 £10.00 Edited August 7, 2020 by NickP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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