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harry_rag

Rugby World Cup 2019

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after a solid opening match, i’m now 2-2 with overall less than a unit lost. 

ive bet on russia +29.5 against samoa, i haven’t seen yet a blowout in this world cup and teams are struggling to cover big handicaps (italy , england, japan). i was quite impressed by the russian side on friday. they put up a decent performance for about 50 minutes against japan. samoa is not a team that scores lots of points , in fact their highest score in the last 3 years was against usa B (48-26). so i think a 29.5 is quite a big task for the samoan side. had russia not play just a couple of days before the match this would definitely be a full stake bet for me. 

also i think the current handicap on argentina tonga is quite short. tonga was really poor yesterday against england, they never were a threat in attack and if england hadn’t made lots of handlings mistakes this would have been a huge loss for tonga. on the other side , argentina needs to win this match to keep alive any chance they might have to qualify to the QF. in theory they should go all in to win this match and to get the bonus point. i’ve already bet on -29.5 a days ago but the spread now is set at 23.5-24.5.. i’ll just wait the confirmation of the line ups ... 

i’m quite tempted on the handicap for uruguay against fiji as well. the line is currently at 31.5 i think and this might be a bit high given that fiji play on saturday. 

other than that, the outright bets are going better than expected. this is so far a low scoring world cup. i saw today one bookie is offering 1.80 on -308.5 tries. i think they just  didn’t update the odds so i’m almost certainly betting on that. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, LePapo said:

i saw today one bookie is offering 1.80 on -308.5 tries. i think they just  didn’t update the odds so i’m almost certainly betting on that. 

Good luck if you do, spreads still 304-307 so price doesn't look too out of line.

Have played drop goal scored at 15/2 in today's game, seems a bit big.

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It may look like I've been a bit indecisive with my bets on tomorrow's games but I'd say I've split my stake across the main "shortie" bets and had smaller bets (sometimes smaller than I'd have liked) on the long shots.

Russia +31 at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >10.5 points at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >1.5 tries at 27/20 with Lads
Buy Russia tries squared at 3.7 with SX
Russia to win race to 10 points 9/1 Betway
Russian player man of the match 20/1 Betway
Russia most converted tries 17/1 888
At least 1 yellow card for each team at 11/2 Betway

I'm expecting Russia to at least attempt a more expansive game tomorrow and hoping that fatigue from a short turnaround won't be too much of a factor. Samoa have only won 6 of their 27 games over the last 4 years and only 1 (by 51 v Germany) by more than 20. The yellow card bet is only 5/2 with Hills.

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solid bets all of them, russia first team to score 10 points at 9/1 is just massive value. I will bet on that. I'm on +3.5 penalties scored as well, weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.. so fly halves might have a big role in the match. 

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17 hours ago, LePapo said:

solid bets all of them, russia first team to score 10 points at 9/1 is just massive value. I will bet on that. I'm on +3.5 penalties scored as well, weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.. so fly halves might have a big role in the match. 

I assume that's Russia +3.5 penalties, in which case well done. Shame they couldn't win the race to 10 points while they had the 2 man advantage. No joy for me on the points and tries lines but at least they covered the handicap and the yellow card bet landed.

Looking ahead to the 3 games over the next couple of days, these are my thoughts so far.

Fiji/Uruguay: Don't think I'll be betting on the handicap in this one, too close to call at +31. If you gave me a free bet that I had to use on that market I'd take the +31 but without a great deal of confidence. I do think Fiji will put on a show here, maybe from the start, but finding a value bet to side with them might take some doing.

Italy/Canada: Another trappy one, Italy not a team who do many big margins of victory but Canada are certainly capable of being on the wrong end of a spanking. Again, I'd stick a free bet on the +21 line but I don't think I'll do so with any real money.

England/USA: I think I'll be taking the best available + line on this one (currently +34 at evens). England are a team who often run up a big winning margin but USA have only failed 3 times in the last 4 years with that big a start (twice against Ireland and 64-0 v South Africa in the last World Cup). Next biggest defeat after that is by 23 points v Scotland. Given the circumstances, this looks a more confident pick. Opening game for USA and fairly quick turnaround for a much changed England.

Best check the weather and see if that is likely to be a factor in these games.

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I might be buying into the narrative (players being lucky to get away with yellow rather than red) but tomorrow's game certainly won't be one for shrinking violets. With that in mind, I've bought bookings at 16 with SX (was 14 just before I bet, 19 with SPIN) and had a bit on a red card at just better than 9/1 with Hills (dutching 16/1 and 25/1 for which team will get the first red card). Hills go 7/2 for a yellow card in both halves and 4/1 a yellow card for each team which might not be a bad alternative angle to the spread bet. Red card is 9/1 in a couple of other places.

Only other bet so far is Veitokani to score a try at 5/4 with Fred.

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Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match has seen 8 conversions in this world cup so far, and the only ones with more than 5 were ITA-NAM and WAL-GEO.. Wales and Italy have accurate shooters. Tomorrow, Volavola is not starting and I imagine it will be Matavesi who'll shoot the penalties and conversions. From what I could find, he has an all time record of 17/25 conversions which equals to 68%. Alright but far from outstanding. In Uruguay, I found that Berchesi has around a 73% conversion rate (8/11). It's true that the sample is not big enough to correctly assess the shooting ratio but it can show more or less some trends. Then with a 70% conversion rate, there should be around 8-9 tries to have over 5.5 conversions.. The spread on tries is currently at 7.5 (1.80-1.90 more or less), so -5.5 conversions at 2.45 represents nice value to me. I think -6.5 is a safer option but would have loved higher odds than 1.65...

-5.5 conversions at 2.45 with Unibet

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That looks a great bet but I couldn't see it anywhere with the firm you mention. Probably would resist following as I've sold converted tries and missed kicks pre-tournament.

Had a few more bets based on a tip I saw elsewhere. Didn't look at Uruguay tryscorers but I'm 100% certain I'd have taken this bet if I had.

Kessler to score a try at 10/1 with Fred and 2 or more at 130/1 with Lads (using boost, 150/1 with 365). Also bought Uruguay front 5 try minutes at 12 with SX. The other 4 are makeweights but it's still a decent enough bet.

He's scored 12 tries in 34 starts and 6 in the last 5 (two braces).

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First shock of the tournament today! Matavesi had a shocker today scoring just 1/3 conversions and missing a penalty... same for Volavola who missed two conversions which eventually costed them the match. Probably not betting for tomorrow's matches, maybe backing USA on the handicap is the most interesting option as teams have struggled to cover big handicaps but I'm not entirely conviced.. Any suggestions for tomorrow?

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I've also bought USA front 5 try minutes at 8 with SPIN. That's largely on the back of Joe Taufete'e who has scored 18 tries in 16 starts for the USA! Not the worst anytime bet at 9/2 but I just missed 6/1 with Lads so will stick to the spread bet (with a quid on him scoring a brace at 130/1 with Lads).

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For tomorrow, I've gone for a buy of the USA front 5 try minutes at 10 (sticking with Taufete'e) and Canada hotshots at 8 (not often you get the chance to break even in the event of one of the players phoning in sick)! Both of those with SPIN. Also on Van der Merwe try at 13/2 Skybet.

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For tomorrow, I’ll just bet on Scotland-Russia. The spread a week or so ago was 43,5 which was huge for this match. I just forgot to bet on that and now it’s around 33-35 I think which I think is a bit high but not enough to get involved. Scotland is resting their main players for their crucial match against Japan and Russia imo has performed really well during this WC. So I can’t see this being a blowout like SA or NZ against Canada and Namibia. I’m on -5.5 conversions @2.20. Laidlaw is not playing so it should be Adam Hastings who kicks the conversions and penalties. I did some research on his stats and he has an all time record of 52/72 conversions , about a 72.20% conversion rate. The other one that might kick conversions as well is Peter Horne but according to the stats he has a lower conversion rate than Hastings. On the other hand, Russia have shown little in attack in this WC, their one try came after a mistake in the opening match so I expect little from them tomorrow and their Fly half Kushnarev is not starting tomorrow and it will be Gaisin who kicks the penalties and conversions (I imagine) I found he has an all time record of 18/25 = 72%. So to have +5.5 conversions with that conversion rate (72% for both) there should be around 8-9 tries which I just think it’s quite a lot for this match. Also I’m on no team to score 40 points at 2.25. Both teams have been really poor offensively in this WC and even if Scotland manage to score a few tries early in the match I can see them playing with less intensity and resting more players once they got the bonus point. 4 tries are 20 points if they are converted it’s 28, still 12 points away from 40...

Argentina Usa: nothing that I particularly like. Argentina are already out but a victory against Usa will guarantee qualification for the next WC. I read that there’s still some motivation as it’s probably the last world cup match for several players.. If I had to bet, I’d be more on the argentinian side 

Wales Fiji: I have an outright on Fiji , I need them not to score 3 tries. Regarding the match not much appeals here. Wales have not disappointed in the WC and I think they can easily beat France in the QF.

So all in all it’s just two bets for me tomorrow both with Unibet

-5.5 conversions (2.20)

No team to score 40 points (2.25)

 

 

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Ufff bad loss here, Russian defence all over the place and Scotland punishing every Russian mistake.. Hastings pretty accurate today. Failed analysis from my part. Have a bet remaining on fiji -1.5 tries... 

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On 10/15/2019 at 11:26 AM, mikefoot123 said:

is there anything good looking for the quarters?

Just been looking at the handicap lines and my picks would be:

England -8 v Australia

New Zealand -12 v Ireland

France +8 v Wales

Japan +15 v South Africa

New Zealand would be my strongest pick and Japan the only other I can see myself putting hard cash on. The other two are more like what I'd go for if you gave me a free bet that had to be used on the handicap, with England the closest of all of them to being a coin toss.

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19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Just been looking at the handicap lines and my picks would be:

England -8 v Australia

New Zealand -12 v Ireland

France +8 v Wales

Japan +15 v South Africa

New Zealand would be my strongest pick and Japan the only other I can see myself putting hard cash on. The other two are more like what I'd go for if you gave me a free bet that had to be used on the handicap, with England the closest of all of them to being a coin toss.

Yeah agree - Ireland have been pretty ropey this WC so could easily see NZ putting a lot on them. Would be very surprised if Japan and SA isnt very close

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What's up guys, long time.

I am looking at:

England by 1-12 @ 2.60

I am most confident in England, ironically. The statistical models has them on +12 but Australia are WC game raisers and are also playing their strongest team. England show up for big games and are in great form. 

Wales by 1-12 @ 2.50

Wales are just too good for France yet historically their games are quite close. Nothing from the French has really impressed me and they should have lost that game vs Argentina in the group stages, personally.

All Blacks by 13 or more @ 1.91 (-12.5 Handicap)

I can see Ireland targeting their lineout as it's been their weakest point but ABs have their Whitelock/Retallick pairing back. Also haven't lost their own scrum in forever, it will be a forwards battle and phases while they spread the ball for their wingers to get it over probably. Or an intercept while Ireland are coming forward. New Zealand can withstand phases and target them on the counter too so will be interesting.

Murray and Sexton need to have a good game, but specifically Murray's redistribution at the breakdown in finding players and space (looking at you Stockdale)

Jack Goodhue anytime try scorer @ 3.75 has value, for me

Springboks by 15 or more (-14.5) @ 1.80

Springboks, pretty self explanatory. Demolished Japan in a friendly pre-WC (41-7) and are even stronger now. Le Roux is a liability however, would have preferred to see Willemse given a start here. I also prefer Nkosi over Mapimpi at 11 however Mapimpi is good for rebound tries/width whereas Nkosi is better for counters IMO.

Watching Japan vs Scotland, they gave 150% and I am sure they are gassed. Their bench is also not even close and we (Springboks) have an absolute monster front-row to come on ~60th minute and pin them back. 

Once we score, we don't let teams back in so getting a try in the first 10 minutes will be crucial. 

Might be a bit biased so take that with a grain of salt.

 

A 4-fold of the above comes in 22.35.

 

Enjoy the games!

 

Edited by KikoCy
some extra thoughts

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On 10/16/2019 at 2:54 PM, harry_rag said:

Just been looking at the handicap lines and my picks would be:

England -8 v Australia

New Zealand -12 v Ireland

France +8 v Wales

Japan +15 v South Africa

New Zealand would be my strongest pick and Japan the only other I can see myself putting hard cash on. The other two are more like what I'd go for if you gave me a free bet that had to be used on the handicap, with England the closest of all of them to being a coin toss.

2 out of 2 so far but only had cash on the All Blacks. Playing Japan +15 as a single tomorrow with a small double adding France +8 into the mix.

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