ProfessorMJ Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 NFL Picks - Week #16 PICK #1: Buffalo Bills +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 4 stars) In the first meeting between these two squads back in Week #4, the Pats won a close 16-to-10 game despite four turnovers by the Bills. Buffalo racked up 375 total yards versus 224 for New England. If not for Josh Allen’s ill-advised passes, the Bills could have won this game. He has learned the importance of protecting the ball since then, as shown by his 15 TD passes versus just three interceptions. New England is 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, notice that the Bills are 3-1-1 ATS over their past five matchups at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots have been a shaky team recently; their 34-to-13 win over the lowly Bengals doesn’t mean much. As for Buffalo, after a small mid-season slump, they are definitely trending up and playing smart football. In my opinion, the point spread is inflated due to New England’s 20-year domination. They haven’t been that good recently. Their defense has been regressing a bit, although still good. Julian Edelman will likely suit up, but he’s battling a couple of injuries and he didn’t look comfortable last week (he only caught two passes). Buffalo’s defense has allowed 16 points per game on average. Their pass defense is outstanding, and their run defense has improved a lot over the past few games. It seems clear to me that the Patriots have much less than a 50% chance of beating the Bills by 7 points or more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo won the game outright. I’m taking the Bills to cover. PICK #2: Houston Texans -3 at Tampa Bay Bucs (rated 3 stars) When the regular season is nearing the end, the motivation factor is big. I find it difficult to pick a team that has nothing to play for, when facing a team that is fighting for the playoffs or for its seeding. It might even be possible that referees tend to favor the team that needs the game the most. In this case, the Bucs have won five of their past six games, but these wins didn’t occur against power houses. They beat Detroit, Indy, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Arizona. Also, their two receivers by far, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both out. That leaves Jameis Winston with much fewer reliable targets. Speaking of Winston, he leads the league with 24 interceptions; the player in second position has 18. At first sight, this game might be viewed as a sandwich game for the Texans since it is right between two meetings with the Titans. However, the game against Tampa is so important that there’s not way they will take it lightly. If Houston wins and the Titans lose against the Saints (a likely scenario, the Texans would be crowned AFC South champions and wouldn’t need to fight hard next week. Only the Dolphins have allowed more points than the Bucs this season. Watson, Hopkins, Fuller and company won’t have trouble scoring this Saturday. I am predicting a 14-point win for Houston. PICK #3: New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Tennessee Titans (rated 3 stars) Boy, the Saints offense has looked unstoppable the past two weeks. After scoring 46 points against the stout 49ers defense, they added 34 more Monday night against the Colts (all 34 points were scored through the first three quarters, and they didn’t try hard in the final quarter because of the large lead). I know the Titans will be fighting for their playoff lives at home, but I wouldn’t feel good betting against the Saints offense. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill looked more shaky last week against a mediocre pass defense from Houston. I noticed that Tennessee has faced just three winning teams this season: Buffalo, Kansas City and Houston. If you think the Saints might struggle on grass, think again. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in their four most recent games on grass. PICK #4: Dallas Cowboys -1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (rated 1 star) Man, these two teams have been fairly unpredictable this season, but I’ll give it a shot. Even though some of my betting angles are favoring Philly, I’m still going to go with the most talented team, the Cowboys. I wouldn’t feel good betting this Eagles team that is missing so many wide receivers. After losing speedy DeSean Jackson earlier this season, they now lost Alshon Jeffery to a foot injury and Nelson Agholor seems unlikely to be on the field this Sunday. That leaves the Eagles with unproven guys at wide receiver. Hopefully, the Cowboys’ coaching staff will be smart enough to double-cover Zach Ertz, who is basically the lone catching threat left in their roster. On top of that, running back Jordan Howard does not look ready to be back in action either. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been holding on to the ball too long, and he often ends up getting sacked or fumbling the ball. The situation won’t improve with so few weapons at his disposal. He has to hope left tackle Lane Johnson will be able to suit up, otherwise he’ll have Demarcus Lawrence in his face all game long. The possibly cold weather could help Philly, though, especially when facing a dome team like Dallas. However, did you know the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS over their past seven games in Philadelphia? They have also beaten the spread in each of the past four meetings with the Eagles overall. Let’s be honest: Philly won its past two games, but they struggled mightily to get victories against the lowly Giants and Redskins. Those wins were unimpressive. I am not grading this pick higher because of the cold weather, but also coaching. I trust Doug Pederson a lot more than Jason Garrett to make smart moves during the game. Morever, both teams have been pretty inconsistent so it seems harder to get a good grasp of what’s likely to happen this Sunday. Merry Christmas, my sports investing friends! Enjoy your time with family! Professor MJ Sportwetten 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanotherdonkey Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Happy holidays to you Professor MJ and good luck for 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 week 16 update total selections 7/16 or 43.75% Broncos gave the LIONS a kicking Jets flew too high for the STEELERS Selected bets go into the red Even with both Nap & NB bets losing this week they are still in profit overall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Week 17 selected bets for this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProfessorMJ Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Week 17 selected bets for this week I certainly do not want to discredit all of your work, but I always wondered if your "expected" spreads incorporated key information like missing players. Based on what I'm seeing above, it's not. How can you expect the Ravens to be 14-point favorites against the Steelers when Baltimore has nothing to play for and have announced they will rest MANY starters, including star quarterback Lamar Jackson? Maybe they'll beat the spread and you'll win your bet, but there is no way they should be 14-point underdogs. Same for the Buffalo Bills. No way they should be favored by 11.5 points. They are locked into the number 5 seed and will rest most of their best players at some point during the game. Again, I'm not saying you should bet your house on the Jets; I'm just saying the actual spread of 1.5 is more reliable than 11.5 for sure... The Vikings have also announced they would rest may good players since they are locked into the number 6 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 6 hours ago, ProfessorMJ said: I certainly do not want to discredit all of your work, but I always wondered if your "expected" spreads incorporated key information like missing players. Based on what I'm seeing above, it's not. How can you expect the Ravens to be 14-point favorites against the Steelers when Baltimore has nothing to play for and have announced they will rest MANY starters, including star quarterback Lamar Jackson? Maybe they'll beat the spread and you'll win your bet, but there is no way they should be 14-point underdogs. Same for the Buffalo Bills. No way they should be favored by 11.5 points. They are locked into the number 5 seed and will rest most of their best players at some point during the game. Again, I'm not saying you should bet your house on the Jets; I'm just saying the actual spread of 1.5 is more reliable than 11.5 for sure... The Vikings have also announced they would rest may good players since they are locked into the number 6 seed. Its all automated,so it is as it is The only input on my part is posting it up . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Week 17 Roundup (some of the game times are different ) Overall selections 8/16 or 50% Selected Bets 3/5 or 60% Nap Only won NB Only Lost All selections fell below the required break even point of 52% with a poor 48% SELECTED BETS, NAPS ONLY & NB ONLY all managed scrape a small profit (treat yourself to a meal deal @ Wendys ) Sportwetten 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) No SELECTED BETS for the wildcards but here are the predicted spreads Edited January 4, 2020 by Valiant Thor Stats update & formatting JPee 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 My Oh My what were the BILLS playing at cruising the game then went and threw it away While the PATRIOTS get beat in a close game The VIKINGS & SEAHAWKS go through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 No SELECTED BETS for the Divisionals but here are the predicted spreads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Wow anyone watch the Chiefs game, Texans set off like a house on fire and the chiefs looked all over the place, next thing the Texans went into meltdown and just couldn't cope with the Chiefs , great viewing had it all Glad there wasnt any SELECTED BETS as they would all have been losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 No SELECTED BETS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Had a few weeks off the TD scorer betting but taken a look at tonight's games. One bet for me. Tennessee at Kansas: 12 points on Jonnu Smith TD at 7/2 Hills I share the prevailing view that he should be slightly less than 3/1 rather than a half point more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Chiefs v 49ers make the superbowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 (edited) Superbowl prediction Edited February 1, 2020 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/1/2020 at 5:59 PM, Valiant Thor said: Superbowl prediction Never in doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 25 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Never in doubt it was a great comeback! I did have doubts too hahaha Well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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