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ProfessorMJ

NFL 2019/20

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14 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

WEEK  9  * UPDATE *

* Carolina Panthers expected spread was wrong making Tennessee Titan a bet selection *

image.png.d5fd96a22242765218a8324f79163f61.png

image.png.0a96bdaa94173c07033b898593d4b758.png

 

So we agree on 49ers and Bears, but not on Lions-Raiders and Pats-Ravens. I was leaning towards the Titans, so good to see you like them as well.

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On 10/31/2019 at 1:08 PM, ProfessorMJ said:

So we agree on 49ers and Bears, but not on Lions-Raiders and Pats-Ravens. I was leaning towards the Titans, so good to see you like them as well.

With my current SR on selected bets I would be expecting 3 out of the 5 at least :hope

OH DEAR OH DEAR :sad

Edited by Valiant Thor

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WEEK  9 ROUNDUP

I know this was Halloween but this was definitely  💀☠️💀 A NIGHTMARE ON NFL WEEK 💀☠️💀

image.thumb.png.21254ea16f6b94d212dfa7d70634b823.png

Week 9 total selections 4/14 or 28% 💀

image.png.c77a88ab1b92370a6e905649c0e25a51.pngNo picnic for these bad BEARS ☠️

image.png.583fdc39200b11447cc2b1b331094ed1.pngMore of a squeak than a roar for the LIONS ☠️

image.png.9d9e1968885f2a1f8f4d332207b1207e.png49ers Won the game but missed the spread ☠️

image.png.797d26d23db6993dc59214cea8ea13f1.pngTITANS easy prey for the panthers ☠️

image.png.68c8c64cfcb62777337dc68de47b767c.pngRavens too much for the PATS ☠️

image.png.7c2761411f33e9473a829446c07a51a3.png

:sad

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On 11/5/2019 at 1:04 AM, Valiant Thor said:

WEEK  9 ROUNDUP

I know this was Halloween but this was definitely  💀☠️💀 A NIGHTMARE ON NFL WEEK 💀☠️💀

image.thumb.png.21254ea16f6b94d212dfa7d70634b823.png

Week 9 total selections 4/14 or 28% 💀

image.png.c77a88ab1b92370a6e905649c0e25a51.pngNo picnic for these bad BEARS ☠️

image.png.583fdc39200b11447cc2b1b331094ed1.pngMore of a squeak than a roar for the LIONS ☠️

image.png.9d9e1968885f2a1f8f4d332207b1207e.png49ers Won the game but missed the spread ☠️

image.png.797d26d23db6993dc59214cea8ea13f1.pngTITANS easy prey for the panthers ☠️

image.png.68c8c64cfcb62777337dc68de47b767c.pngRavens too much for the PATS ☠️

image.png.7c2761411f33e9473a829446c07a51a3.png

:sad

Rough week for you, but I'm sure you'll rebound nicely buddy!!

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Thursday Night Football - Week #10

LEAN: Los Angeles Chargers pick’em at Oakland Raiders

Wow, what a critical game this is for both teams! The loser will suffer a significant blow to its playoff hopes.

Can you feel the Chargers train picking up speed? That big win over the Packers last weekend may become their season turning point. Last year the Chargers started the season 1-2 before winning 11 of their last 13 games. In 2017, they got off to a disappointing 3-6 record before going 6-1 during the last stretch of the season. Can they do it again this year?

The largest margin of defeat by Los Angeles this year has been just 7 points! Meanwhile, the Raiders lost games by 20-, 18- and 18-point margins.

After holding out the first four games of the season, Melvin Gordon seems to be back to game speed. He had his best game of 2019 with 20 rushes for 80 yards and a couple of TDs versus the Packers.

Both teams have a solid and well-balanced attack. On the Chargers side, you’ve got Rivers, Gordon, Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and underrated tight end Hunter Henry. On the Raiders side, you’ve got Derek Carr under center with rookie sensation Josh Jacobs running the ball, along with Tyrell Williams and the surprising Darren Waller catching balls.

The big difference to me lies on the defensive side of the ball. Oakland lacks playmakers; they don’t have guys that can really put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram can. These guys pressured Aaron Rodgers all game long last Sunday, despite very few blitzes. One of the few bright spots for the Raiders on defense, Arden Key, broke his foot and will miss the remainder of the season.

Firing their offensive coordinator and replacing him with a new guy did wonders to the Chargers’ offense. They moved the ball very well against Green Bay. The players seemed to enjoy his playcalling. None of their 9 possessions ended with a three-and-out, and Los Angeles had to punt just once!

Josh Jacobs’ shoulder seems to be bothering him. He played last week, but he is still listed on the injury list. He might feel sore on such a short week.

It should be an entertaining game, but in the end I expect the Chargers to come out on top.

Enjoy the game folks!

Professor MJ

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4 NFL Betting Tips by Stats University Professor (Week #10)

PICK: Indianapolis Colts -10 vs Miami Dolphins (rated 3 stars)

When I told a friend I was thinking about picking the Colts in my survivor pool, he replied: “What? Are you sure? Even though Brissett is hurt?” That shows me most people are afraid of betting Indy because of this injury, and also because of Miami’s good recent performances.

First, let’s address the QB situation. Brissett has a sprained MCL, the Colts might be able to get past the Dolphins with Brian Hoyer under center, but Brissett is expected to try and play. Indianapolis is pushing hard for a playoff spot and they cannot afford to lose this game.

Speaking of injuries, the betting public might underestimate the impact of the Dolphins missing two key pieces to their offense. Running back Mark Walton got suspended for four games, while the very impressive wide receiver Preston Williams is done for the year after hurting his right knee.

One could argue the Colts may look past Miami since they are expecting matchups against their three divisional rivals in the next three weeks. But I could counter this argument by saying this is a sandwich game for the Dolphins; indeed, they played the Jets last week and have a meeting with the Bills in Week #11.

I believe Miami may not play as hard, now that they’ve finally earned their first win of the season. Meanwhile, the Colts are certain to give everything they’ve got, considering how tight the playoff race is.

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +10 vs Baltimore Ravens (rated 3 stars)

We have many ingredients to an inflated point spread here.

First, the Ravens received great publicity following an impressive win over the undefeated Patriots on primetime television. Secondly, the Bengals are starting a rookie at quarterback, Ryan Finley, a fourth round pick out of NC State.

Winning by 11 points or more on the road is a difficult task. The elements I just mentioned have contributed to boosting the line.

Winless teams coming off a bye week are one of my favorites betting angles in the NFL, and that applies here. Cincinnati has had plenty of time to rest and game plan for their next opponent. Giving 2 weeks to the rookie QB to work with the first stringers was a smart move.

Ryan Finley is 24 years old so he’s a more mature rookie. From the reports I’ve read, he looked bad during offseason practices, but he improved significantly during preseason games.

He is considered a game manager. He’s an accurate passer, but not explosive. But that’s okay! We want him to sustain drives to keep Lamar Jackson off the field, and running out the clock to shorten the game.

Head coach Zac Taylor declared he expects star wide receiver A.J. Green to make his debut against the Ravens. However, Green didn’t feel well enough to practice Wednesday, so he is considered questionable to play. Even if he plays, he could be rusty and be limited to a specific number of plays. But he might still draw attention for Baltimore’s defense.

The Bengals will be looking for payback after dropping a Week #6 meeting with the Ravens by a 23-to-17 score earlier this year.

I expect the crowd to fully support his team despite an 0-8 record, considering they’ll be excited to see their new QB at work and also because it’s a divisional game against a hated rival.

PICK: Dallas Cowboys -3 vs Minnesota Vikings (rated 2 stars)

These two teams have a similar record and a comparable point differential. Therefore, a spread of three points favoring the home team isn’t surprising.

However, the injury to Adam Thielen will make the Vikings more one-dimensional. The Cowboys will stack the line of scrimmage and dare Kirk Cousins to beat them. He looks good at times, and bad at others. Without one of his top targets, I expect a long night for him.

The Cowboys defense is solid. Thielen’s absence will make it easier for them to stop Dalvin Cook. The Vikings defense is also good, but facing a more well-balanced attack will create more problems for them. In case you are wondering, Amari Cooper is expected to play despite being bothered by a knee injury.

Dallas is losing one day of rest after playing the Monday Nighter against the Giants, but Minnesota will be on the road for a third time over the past four weeks.

LEAN: Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5 vs Arizona Cardinals

Bruce Arians coached the Cards for five years and he will now face his former team. Do you think he’ll be motivated to beat them? I think so!

It has been six weeks (!!!) since the Bucs last played at home, so their players should be pumped. That was one of my arguments when picking the Raiders last week, as they were in the same situation. It worked out well, so let’s give it a try once again!

The rest factor favors Arizona, though, since they played last Thursday so they benefit from three more days of rest. However, the Cards will be traveling a couple of time zones to play an early Sunday game, which will make things tougher.

Tight end O.J. Howard is “ready to roll”, according to his coach. The timing for his return couldn’t be more perfect since the Cards have allowed league-highs in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year.

Arizona has beaten three teams this season. Do you know what those teams’ combined record is? An abysmal 3-22!! Meanwhile, the Bucs have just won a couple of games, but they were significantly more impressive: at Carolina and at the Rams.

I wish you the best of luck with your NFL plays!

Professor MJ

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NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #9)

Sorry I could not post them last weekend because I went on a trip to Buffalo. I barely had enough time to release my YouTube video presenting those picks.

Here they were (you can check my YT video if you need proof that I'm not cheating!):

  • PICK #1: Melvin Gordon over 40.5 rushing yards (at -122 or 1.82) (WIN)
  • PICK #2: DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93) (WIN)
  • PICK #3: Mark Walton over 2.5 receptions (at -140 or 1.714) (WIN)
  • PICK #4: Russell Wilson under 264.5 passing yards (at -121 or 1.83) (LOSS)
  • PICK #5: Taylor Gabriel under 2.5 receptions (at +133 or 2.33) (LOSS)
  • PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 2.5 receptions (at -180 or 1.556) (LOSS)
  • PICK #7: Mitch Trubisky under 235.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.833) (WIN)
  • PICK #8: Odell Beckham over 4.5 receptions (at +103 or 2.03) (WIN)

Thus far in 2019: 18-15 record (profit = +1.85 units)

NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #10)

  • PICK #1: Hunter Henry over 65.5 receiving yards (at -110 or 1.91 with MyBookie.ag)
  • PICK #2: Keenan Allen over 68.5 receiving yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)
  • PICK #3: Philip Rivers under 314.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)
  • PICK #4: Derek Carr under 34.5 passing attempts (at -115 or 1.87 with MyBookie.ag)

More to come on Sunday games!

Professor MJ

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It never ceases to amaze me how often the hottest favs manage to lose straight-up (money line). Take yesterday; Indy -10.5 managed to lose. NO -13.5 managed to lose. (Of course Balt -10.5 did win and cover.).

It would be great to see a historic stat on the backing the week's biggest dog money line.

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19 hours ago, Snoopdog said:

It never ceases to amaze me how often the hottest favs manage to lose straight-up (money line). Take yesterday; Indy -10.5 managed to lose. NO -13.5 managed to lose. (Of course Balt -10.5 did win and cover.).

It would be great to see a historic stat on the backing the week's biggest dog money line.

image.png.612d32e06084a3fb375ee3b3bb0a28d7.png

These are the Fav's results for each week +/-  0.5 on the spread 6/11 or 54.5%

Obviously backing the dog would give the inverse results 5/11 or 45.5%

Week 10 was NOS @ -12.5

So making it an even split @ 6/12 fav's & Dogs 50%

Spread Stats (seems like the books have them pretty much nailed on as would be expected)

image.thumb.png.ae634a51e2b96841834173c3954783f1.png

Edited by Valiant Thor
Stats update & formatting

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I am not a favourite of backing on handicaps on matches but that is just me as I would rather back outright,Yes you get better odds but was only brought in for the bookies so they can have a tie with a 3 way go.A 1-4 Horse got turned over yesterday at Navan and it happens but sometimes you just need that bit of luck.My 4 bets never did anything but at least I got 25-1 5 timer up on my football bets at the weekend.Good Luck and keep the faith.

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5 minutes ago, notanotherdonkey said:

I am not a favourite of backing on handicaps on matches but that is just me as I would rather back outright,Yes you get better odds but was only brought in for the bookies so they can have a tie with a 3 way go.A 1-4 Horse got turned over yesterday at Navan and it happens but sometimes you just need that bit of luck.My 4 bets never did anything but at least I got 25-1 5 timer up on my football bets at the weekend.Good Luck and keep the faith.

Whether you back on the h'cps or the outright odds if your estimation is less than the actual return rate you will lose money regardless

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9 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Whether you back on the h'cps or the outright odds if your estimation is less than the actual return rate you will lose money regardless

That is if you are picking the wrong bets you will lose money but if you pick the right bets and are selective you can win money.

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Week 10 Roundup

image.thumb.png.8bcd72083889388649811617cd838dbe.png

Week 10 total selections 5/13 or 38% :$

image.png.c3d373b6caebd6a99a7728d7468480b6.pngCOLTS were misfiring this weekend  :$

image.png.83f29c13d827124b49b9defcc68c6f56.pngVIKINGS stronger than the cowboys :cigar

image.png.e1d1f9ee9378360485290f68a9b2c033.pngSEAHAWKS flew high over San Francisco :cigar

image.png.daea89494bd26969ac4a50926629ec3a.png

 

Still keeping my head above water (just :lol )

Edited by Valiant Thor
Full season Stats had error (not updated fully)

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Week #11 Picks

PICK: Houston Texans +4 at Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

The Ravens have impressed a lot of people, including myself, with their three most recent wins: 30-16 in Seattle, 37-20 against the Patriots and an easy 49-13 victory in Cincinnati last week.

Lamar Jackson is such a different animal. No other quarterback matches his elusiveness. He is a lot of fun to watch!

However, I like the Texans to cover the spread here. DeShaun Watson is also very good and he can make plays out of nothing. Plus, he has more experience.

The Texans are a very solid team and you couldn’t tell they had lost J.J. Watt after allowing just three points to the Jaguars in their last game.

Obviously, I also like the fact that Houston is coming off its bye week. They have had plenty of time to analyze game tapes.

PICK: Carolina Panthers -5 vs Atlanta Falcons (rated 3 stars)

I tip my hat off to the Falcons for such an impressive performance in New Orleans last week. It must have been great relief for head coach Dan Quinn, who is certainly on the hot seat.

With that win out of the way, I expect a letdown for Atlanta, especially against a team that simply cannot drop this game. The Panthers are sitting at 5-4, and with such a crowded playoff race in the NFC, this is a must-win game for Carolina. They won’t let their feet off the gas.

The revenge factor comes into play since the Panthers lost both meetings to Atlanta last season. As a matter of fact, the Falcons won by a 7-point margin in Atlanta and by a 14-point margin in Carolina. That’s not gonna happen this year.

LEAN: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts

I’m really looking forward to seeing Nick Foles at quarterback for the Jaguars. He suffered a broken clavicle in Week #1 and had to be replaced by Gardner Minshew.

The backup QB with the mustache did very well at times, and not so good at others. After a bad performance in London against Houston, Doug Marrone decided to make the switch.

Both teams have very comparable defenses with 21 points allowed per game. Their offenses are similar too, maybe with a slight edge to Indy. But who knows what’s going to happen with Foles under center. Jacoby Brissett is expected to be back at quarterback, but his top target, T.Y. Hilton, seems like a long shot to suit up this Sunday.

I expect a very tight divisional game, in which case I’ll go with the Jags as 3-point dogs.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

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Gone for a TD scorer trixie with PP in the early games, all selections where the spreads suggest the fixed odds prices might be generous and my basic research of stats concurs. Had a really good weekend a couple of weeks back (6 out of 7 territory) but more like 1 from 7 last weekend. Ditching the singles and going with a trixie for an interest.

Ebron (Indianapolis) at 13/5, Parker (Miami) at 23/10 and Ridley (Atlanta) at 7/4.

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1 out of 3 from last week's trixie so no joy and the jury is still out on whether or not I should be backing TD scorers at all but I'm enjoying the challenge and keeping stakes low! For tonight's Colts at Houston game I fancy a couple of players at the prices.

Deshaun Watson to score a TD at 5/2 with Skybet and 1+ passing TD and 1+ rushing TD at 4/1 with PP

Has scored a rushing TD in 4 out of 10 games this season and scored 5 in total last season. Not sure he should be bigger than a 2/1 shot. Thought the 1+ of each bet was ok at the general 3/1 on offer and 4/1 seems really good.

Buy Jonathan Williams TD minutes at 8 with SX

That's half of SPIN's buy price so a bit of a difference of opinion to say the least! Fixed odds firms pretty much agree with SPIN's assessment, with 2/1 available in one place and shorter everywhere else. I'd equate a buy at 8 to around 7/2 anytime. Clear value if we just look at the market but only fair to say the guy has a single TD from 17 career starts so a poor bet on that basis. Fantasy Pro's comments just about persuade me I'd rather bet this than swerve it; "Williams seems to be the most likely beneficiary of Marlon Mack's broken hand, with Jordan Wilkins possibly missing the game due to injury as well and Nyheim Hines typically acting as the receiving back. Williams is just outside of RB2 territory for this week."

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NFL PICKS FOR WEEK #12

Written Wednesday November 20th, 2019 at 2 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

Most sportsbooks have a 3-point spread, but MyBookie.ag offers an even more enticing line on the Rams at 3.5. I hesitated between rating this play 4 or 5 stars. Considering how unbelievably hot the Ravens have been of late, I opted to go with 4 stars.

We all know how great Baltimore’s running game is. Good news for the Rams: their rush defense ranks second in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per rush and fifth in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Overall, L.A.’s defense has been pretty stingy recently. Indeed, they have allowed just 12.8 points per game over their last five games.

The most important source of concern about the Rams is their offensive line, which is in shambles after suffering many injuries. They held up fairly well last week against a solid Bears defense. The running game did okay and they did not allow a single sack.

Speaking of injuries, wide receiver Brandin Cooks is expected to return to action, while Robert Woods is questionable for personal reasons.

The Ravens will be traveling through three time zones for this game. This is also a non-conference road game and it might be hard to match last week’s level of intensity against the Texans.

Sean McVay’s squad will be at home for a third time over the past four weeks.

I am taking the Rams to either win this game, or to keep it close.

PICK #2: Dallas Cowboys +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 3 stars)

My gut feeling tells me I should make the following bold call: the Cowboys are going to pull off the upset in New England this Sunday.

Why am I only rating it three stars then? Because I am always worried when it comes to betting against the Patriots. Always.

Based on each team’s rosters, I love this play. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys can play with the Patriots. Dak Prescott has been playing at a very high level. Ezekiel Elliott has been more quiet in the last two games, but he rushed over 100 yards in the previous three.

Meanwhile, New England keeps racking up the wins, but they have showed signs of weaknesses. Tom Brady has openly said he is frustrated with the way the offense is going. Dallas has an above-average defense, I seriously doubt they will get shredded by New England’s offense.

Basically, all of the ingredients are there for a tight game and I can hardly see Dallas getting beaten up. I do feel an upset in the making.

PICK #3: Detroit Lions -3.5 at Washington Redskins (rated 3 stars)

How can I say this politely? The Redskins are bad. Very bad.

Washington’s best performances this season were a 17-16 win over the Dolphins and a 5-point loss to the Eagles. Other than that, they lost all of their remaining eight games by at least 9 points! In this case, give me the Lions laying 3.5 points for sure!!!

Sure, the Skins are at home for the third consecutive week. And this could be viewed as a sandwich game for the Lions, as they are coming off games against Chicago and Dallas, while awaiting meetings with Chicago and Minnesota.

Still, I’m taking Detroit. I expect them to win easily.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford is still out for the Lions, but that’s not a problem. Backup QB Jeff Driskel has done well throwing the ball so far, and his athleticism allows him to extend plays or make good runs.

He has a good surrounding cast with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Scoring 27 points against Dallas was a good output last week. The only problem was their defense who struggled to stop Prescott and company. No one is going to confuse Prescott with Dwayne Haskins, who is simply not good.

The more I talk about this game, the more I like Detroit. Perhaps I should have rated it 4 stars? I’ll let you be the judge.

PICK #4: Seattle Seahawks +1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (rated 2 stars)

The bye week gave plenty of time for Pete Carroll to come up with a sound plan against Philly. It also gave additional time for Seattle’s top target, Tyler Lockett, to heal his leg injury. He is good to go for Sunday. 

Another key benefit was the extra time for newly acquired Josh Gordon to familiarize with his new offense. He picked up two big first downs in his first game with the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago against the Niners.

I am a bit worried about the Eagles being at home for the fourth week in a row, though. Also, Seattle is a West Coast team that will need to play an early Sunday game on the East Coast.

Alshon Jeffery was limited in practice Wednesday, but he should suit up for the game. However, right tackle Lane Johnson is less certain to play; that would be a big blow for Philadelphia because he’s the one who was supposed to face Clowney.

The big gamblers seem to agree with me, as the average bet size on Seattle is $249 versus just $54 on Philly!

In the end, in this key NFC matchup, I trust Russell Wilson more than Carson Wentz. Wilson is having a MVP year and he is simply hard to beat. Facing a suspect Eagles pass defense, I’ll go with the Seahawks.

PICK #5: Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars)

The Bengals offense has not done well since they switched quarterbacks to see how Ryan Finley would do. They scored 13 points against the Ravens and just 10 in Oakland. Finley has completed less than 50% of his passes.

At least, Joe Mixon did a nice job trying to give his QB some support. During those past two outings, he rushed 45 times for 200 yards (a nice 4.4 yards per rush average, which is awesome considering defenses are probably focusing on him).

So why in the world should we pick Cincinnati? Well, I’m wondering if Pittsburgh’s offense is going to be any better than Cincinnati’s. They are severely banged up.

Juju Smith-Schuster is a long shot to play, while their second-best wide receiver Diontae Johnson is also unlikely to play. He took a severe hit, and we could see some blood around his ear after the play. To make matters worse, running back James Conner is questionable.

With a surrounding cast falling down, can Mason Rudolph be the savior? After watching his 4-interception performance last week, I doubt it.

Sure, Pittsburgh gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but their meeting in Cleveland left many scars. It was a very physical game.

I believe this game will be very low-scoring, in which case betting a seven-point underdog seems like the smartest move to do.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

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