NFL 2019/20

[notanotherdonkey]

Ahh okay no worries.Good Luck

[Valiant Thor]

Week 10 Roundup

Week 10 total selections 5/13 or 38%

COLTS were misfiring this weekend 

VIKINGS stronger than the cowboys

SEAHAWKS flew high over San Francisco

 

Still keeping my head above water (just )

Edited November 12, 2019 by Valiant Thor
Full season Stats had error (not updated fully)

[ProfessorMJ]

Week #11 Picks

PICK: Houston Texans +4 at Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

The Ravens have impressed a lot of people, including myself, with their three most recent wins: 30-16 in Seattle, 37-20 against the Patriots and an easy 49-13 victory in Cincinnati last week.

Lamar Jackson is such a different animal. No other quarterback matches his elusiveness. He is a lot of fun to watch!

However, I like the Texans to cover the spread here. DeShaun Watson is also very good and he can make plays out of nothing. Plus, he has more experience.

The Texans are a very solid team and you couldn’t tell they had lost J.J. Watt after allowing just three points to the Jaguars in their last game.

Obviously, I also like the fact that Houston is coming off its bye week. They have had plenty of time to analyze game tapes.

PICK: Carolina Panthers -5 vs Atlanta Falcons (rated 3 stars)

I tip my hat off to the Falcons for such an impressive performance in New Orleans last week. It must have been great relief for head coach Dan Quinn, who is certainly on the hot seat.

With that win out of the way, I expect a letdown for Atlanta, especially against a team that simply cannot drop this game. The Panthers are sitting at 5-4, and with such a crowded playoff race in the NFC, this is a must-win game for Carolina. They won’t let their feet off the gas.

The revenge factor comes into play since the Panthers lost both meetings to Atlanta last season. As a matter of fact, the Falcons won by a 7-point margin in Atlanta and by a 14-point margin in Carolina. That’s not gonna happen this year.

LEAN: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts

I’m really looking forward to seeing Nick Foles at quarterback for the Jaguars. He suffered a broken clavicle in Week #1 and had to be replaced by Gardner Minshew.

The backup QB with the mustache did very well at times, and not so good at others. After a bad performance in London against Houston, Doug Marrone decided to make the switch.

Both teams have very comparable defenses with 21 points allowed per game. Their offenses are similar too, maybe with a slight edge to Indy. But who knows what’s going to happen with Foles under center. Jacoby Brissett is expected to be back at quarterback, but his top target, T.Y. Hilton, seems like a long shot to suit up this Sunday.

I expect a very tight divisional game, in which case I’ll go with the Jags as 3-point dogs.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

[Valiant Thor]

WEEK 11 (a little late as 1 game already played but I have Pittsburg +3 which is a loss so nothing untoward going on, and it wasn't a bet selection anyway)

[harry_rag]

Gone for a TD scorer trixie with PP in the early games, all selections where the spreads suggest the fixed odds prices might be generous and my basic research of stats concurs. Had a really good weekend a couple of weeks back (6 out of 7 territory) but more like 1 from 7 last weekend. Ditching the singles and going with a trixie for an interest.

Ebron (Indianapolis) at 13/5, Parker (Miami) at 23/10 and Ridley (Atlanta) at 7/4.

[Valiant Thor]

On 11/15/2019 at 8:44 AM, Valiant Thor said:

Both week 11 bets ended on a positive note.

Full update after the Chargers game

[Valiant Thor]

WEEK 11 Update

Week 11 total Selections 8/14 or 57%  coinflip

20 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

 

Both Nap & NB bets won which is a change

[Valiant Thor]

WEEK 12

Just the one selection this week

[harry_rag]

1 out of 3 from last week's trixie so no joy and the jury is still out on whether or not I should be backing TD scorers at all but I'm enjoying the challenge and keeping stakes low! For tonight's Colts at Houston game I fancy a couple of players at the prices.

Deshaun Watson to score a TD at 5/2 with Skybet and 1+ passing TD and 1+ rushing TD at 4/1 with PP

Has scored a rushing TD in 4 out of 10 games this season and scored 5 in total last season. Not sure he should be bigger than a 2/1 shot. Thought the 1+ of each bet was ok at the general 3/1 on offer and 4/1 seems really good.

Buy Jonathan Williams TD minutes at 8 with SX

That's half of SPIN's buy price so a bit of a difference of opinion to say the least! Fixed odds firms pretty much agree with SPIN's assessment, with 2/1 available in one place and shorter everywhere else. I'd equate a buy at 8 to around 7/2 anytime. Clear value if we just look at the market but only fair to say the guy has a single TD from 17 career starts so a poor bet on that basis. Fantasy Pro's comments just about persuade me I'd rather bet this than swerve it; "Williams seems to be the most likely beneficiary of Marlon Mack's broken hand, with Jordan Wilkins possibly missing the game due to injury as well and Nyheim Hines typically acting as the receiving back. Williams is just outside of RB2 territory for this week."

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL PICKS FOR WEEK #12

Written Wednesday November 20th, 2019 at 2 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

Most sportsbooks have a 3-point spread, but MyBookie.ag offers an even more enticing line on the Rams at 3.5. I hesitated between rating this play 4 or 5 stars. Considering how unbelievably hot the Ravens have been of late, I opted to go with 4 stars.

We all know how great Baltimore’s running game is. Good news for the Rams: their rush defense ranks second in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per rush and fifth in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Overall, L.A.’s defense has been pretty stingy recently. Indeed, they have allowed just 12.8 points per game over their last five games.

The most important source of concern about the Rams is their offensive line, which is in shambles after suffering many injuries. They held up fairly well last week against a solid Bears defense. The running game did okay and they did not allow a single sack.

Speaking of injuries, wide receiver Brandin Cooks is expected to return to action, while Robert Woods is questionable for personal reasons.

The Ravens will be traveling through three time zones for this game. This is also a non-conference road game and it might be hard to match last week’s level of intensity against the Texans.

Sean McVay’s squad will be at home for a third time over the past four weeks.

I am taking the Rams to either win this game, or to keep it close.

PICK #2: Dallas Cowboys +6.5 at New England Patriots (rated 3 stars)

My gut feeling tells me I should make the following bold call: the Cowboys are going to pull off the upset in New England this Sunday.

Why am I only rating it three stars then? Because I am always worried when it comes to betting against the Patriots. Always.

Based on each team’s rosters, I love this play. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys can play with the Patriots. Dak Prescott has been playing at a very high level. Ezekiel Elliott has been more quiet in the last two games, but he rushed over 100 yards in the previous three.

Meanwhile, New England keeps racking up the wins, but they have showed signs of weaknesses. Tom Brady has openly said he is frustrated with the way the offense is going. Dallas has an above-average defense, I seriously doubt they will get shredded by New England’s offense.

Basically, all of the ingredients are there for a tight game and I can hardly see Dallas getting beaten up. I do feel an upset in the making.

PICK #3: Detroit Lions -3.5 at Washington Redskins (rated 3 stars)

How can I say this politely? The Redskins are bad. Very bad.

Washington’s best performances this season were a 17-16 win over the Dolphins and a 5-point loss to the Eagles. Other than that, they lost all of their remaining eight games by at least 9 points! In this case, give me the Lions laying 3.5 points for sure!!!

Sure, the Skins are at home for the third consecutive week. And this could be viewed as a sandwich game for the Lions, as they are coming off games against Chicago and Dallas, while awaiting meetings with Chicago and Minnesota.

Still, I’m taking Detroit. I expect them to win easily.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford is still out for the Lions, but that’s not a problem. Backup QB Jeff Driskel has done well throwing the ball so far, and his athleticism allows him to extend plays or make good runs.

He has a good surrounding cast with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Scoring 27 points against Dallas was a good output last week. The only problem was their defense who struggled to stop Prescott and company. No one is going to confuse Prescott with Dwayne Haskins, who is simply not good.

The more I talk about this game, the more I like Detroit. Perhaps I should have rated it 4 stars? I’ll let you be the judge.

PICK #4: Seattle Seahawks +1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (rated 2 stars)

The bye week gave plenty of time for Pete Carroll to come up with a sound plan against Philly. It also gave additional time for Seattle’s top target, Tyler Lockett, to heal his leg injury. He is good to go for Sunday. 

Another key benefit was the extra time for newly acquired Josh Gordon to familiarize with his new offense. He picked up two big first downs in his first game with the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago against the Niners.

I am a bit worried about the Eagles being at home for the fourth week in a row, though. Also, Seattle is a West Coast team that will need to play an early Sunday game on the East Coast.

Alshon Jeffery was limited in practice Wednesday, but he should suit up for the game. However, right tackle Lane Johnson is less certain to play; that would be a big blow for Philadelphia because he’s the one who was supposed to face Clowney.

The big gamblers seem to agree with me, as the average bet size on Seattle is $249 versus just $54 on Philly!

In the end, in this key NFC matchup, I trust Russell Wilson more than Carson Wentz. Wilson is having a MVP year and he is simply hard to beat. Facing a suspect Eagles pass defense, I’ll go with the Seahawks.

PICK #5: Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars)

The Bengals offense has not done well since they switched quarterbacks to see how Ryan Finley would do. They scored 13 points against the Ravens and just 10 in Oakland. Finley has completed less than 50% of his passes.

At least, Joe Mixon did a nice job trying to give his QB some support. During those past two outings, he rushed 45 times for 200 yards (a nice 4.4 yards per rush average, which is awesome considering defenses are probably focusing on him).

So why in the world should we pick Cincinnati? Well, I’m wondering if Pittsburgh’s offense is going to be any better than Cincinnati’s. They are severely banged up.

Juju Smith-Schuster is a long shot to play, while their second-best wide receiver Diontae Johnson is also unlikely to play. He took a severe hit, and we could see some blood around his ear after the play. To make matters worse, running back James Conner is questionable.

With a surrounding cast falling down, can Mason Rudolph be the savior? After watching his 4-interception performance last week, I doubt it.

Sure, Pittsburgh gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but their meeting in Cleveland left many scars. It was a very physical game.

I believe this game will be very low-scoring, in which case betting a seven-point underdog seems like the smartest move to do.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

[notanotherdonkey]

Come on Professor MJ. Rise and rise again and let’s hit them bookies this week.

[harry_rag]

No rushing TD for Watson but a nice 40th minute TD for Williams makes for a profit of 32 points on that bet, effectively paying out at 4/1 when he was 2/1 best with the fixed odds firms. Will see what the Sunday games have to offer.

Edited November 22, 2019 by harry_rag

[harry_rag]

My interest in tonight's proceedings consists of the following.

Miami at Cleveland: Ballage TD at 2/1 with PP - Only one or two other firms prepared to go >6/4 which is consistent with the view implied by the spread price. Has 3 in 7 so price looks fair at worst but I think there's a modest edge to be had.

Seattle at Philadelphia: Buy Goedert TD minutes at 10 with SPIN. Annoyingly, the price was 9 earlier but I decided to take it despite the 1 point hike and it's now down to 8! All this despite SX going 12-15!  Whatever, still think it's a decent bet; better value than an anytime price of 23/10 and the guy has 4 in 9 so far this season. On the fixed odds front I was leaning towards 6/5 Carson but have swerved it. Have taken the 5/1 Hollister with 365 for what I could get as it looks too big. 3 in 5, all in his last 2 outings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Chark at 7/4 with PP, just missed 15/8, they're now shorter still but 7/4 can be had with 365 or 888. Slightly generous compared to spread price and has scored 8 TDs in 6 of his 10 games.

Dallas at New England: Elliott at evens with Skybet, odds on according to the spreads and every other firm, has scored at least 1 TD in 7 out of 10 this season and 8 out of 15 last.

[harry_rag]

One of those weeks that virtually screams in my face “stop betting on NFL”! 

[Valiant Thor]

Week 12 update

Poor show this week from all selections 5/14 or 35.7%

Lions more like pussy cats against the Redskins

Still keeping heads above water with total posted SELECTED BETS 3.29pts in profit @ 9.9% roi

[Valiant Thor]

WEEK 13

Thrown up some strange ones this week.

 

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL Games on Thanksgiving (Week #13)

Written Tuesday November 26th, 2019 at 4 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Buffalo Bills +6.5 at Dallas Cowboys (rated 3 stars)

Both teams have had a similar path thus far this season, with the exception of Dallas running into more bumps. Indeed, Buffalo and Dallas have yet to beat a single winning opponent; the lone exception is the Bills getting the W against the 6-5 Tennessee Titans.

However, Dallas is going to face A LOT more pressure in this game. Owner Jerry Jones spoke at length about his dissatisfaction with the team’s performance. I’m pretty sure head coach Jason Garrett is feeling the heat. Under such circumstances, playing at home may not be ideal. If things don’t go as plan, the boo birds will be quick to show up.

The point spread is simply too big, in my opinion. It won’t be an easy game for the Cowboys. Buffalo’s defense seems to be back to its early season form.

I expect a low-scoring game that will be decided in the final minutes of the game. I don’t know which team is going to win, but I certainly like the Bills to cover the 6.5 point spread. Buffalo definitely has a shot to win this game.

PICK: Chicago Bears -3 at Detroit Lions (rated 1 star)

The revenge factor goes in favor of the Lions since they lost their Week #10 meeting with Chicago by a 20-to-13 score. But I’m still going to go with the Bears (even though they have burned me several times in 2019).

The key thing is Jeff Driskel’s hamstring injury. Head coach Matt Patricia just said Driskel’s hamstring is pretty sore and he did not guarantee he’ll suit up this Thursday. If he cannot go, that would be a disaster for the Lions. They would need to turn to David Blough, a guy that is far from looking like a potential NFL starter.

Even if Driskel plays, a big part of his game is his mobility. Being hurt will limit his ability to escape from Khalil Mack and his friends. Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen for Detroit. Driskel has only played three games this season, and the Bears were one of those opponents. They got a chance to play him, so they already have some knowledge about the way he plays.

The Bears not only won the past three meetings with the Lions, but they also beat the spread in each of those games.

I’m taking Da Bears to win big.

Happy Thanksgiving to my American friends!

Professor MJ
 

[ProfessorMJ]

Week #13 (Sunday Games)

Written Tuesday November 28th, 2019 at 11 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)

The Chargers have had plenty of time to reflect on their last two games, both losses to divisional rivals. Their bye week allowed them to game plan appropriately against the Broncos.

L.A. won’t take Denver lightly, considering they were upset at home 20-to-13 in Week #5. They’ll be looking for payback, while the Broncos may not play as hard after a stinker in Buffalo.

At the time of writing, Denver’s starting quarterback has yet to be decided. GM John Elway said Brandon Allen and Drew Lock will split the practice reps this week. A decision is expected to be made by Friday. No matter which one plays, he’ll face a tough task against strong pass rushers like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

Saftey Derwin James has a real shot to be in the lineup for the Chargers. That would be a huge boost to their defense since James was graded as the seventh-best safety in the league by ProFootballFocus.

In my own opinion, the Chargers are a MUCH better team than their 4-7 record indicates. They have a lot more playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Broncos.

Please note that the Chargers are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. Sounds good to me!

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs New York Jets (rated 2 stars)

The Jets are all happy about their recent 3-game winning streak, in which Sam Darnold has thrown 7 TD passes versus just one interception. Facing the Bengals should be easy, right?

I don’t think so. Cincinnati is looking for their first win of the season. They certainly want to give their head coach his first career NFL win. Andy Dalton will be back under center, which gives them a much better chance of winning since the Ryan Finley experiment failed.

The Bengals will be at home for the fourth week out of the past five. In other words, they did not have to travel too much recently so they should be ready to roll.

PICK: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Tennessee Titans (rated 1 star)

The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with AFC South teams. They are 7-1 ATS when facing the Titans at home over their past eight meetings in Indy. Those are pretty stunning numbers!

Indianapolis played last Thursday, so they’ll be well-rested.

Ryan Tannehill has done a nice job since taking over the QB position for Tennessee. However, look at the road/home split: he has thrown 9 TD passes versus 1 interception at home, compared to 1 TD and 3 picks on the road. Facing a tough Colts defense on the road does not bode well for him!

Sure, Marlon Mack is out for the Colts. I don’t want to imply that he is not a good player, but in my opinion most of the job is getting done through the strong play of their offensive line. Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines did very well replacing him last week, as the running game did not skip a beat in his absence.

I hope you enjoyed this write up, and best of luck with your plays!

Professor MJ

[ProfessorMJ]

Monday Night Football (Week #13)

Written Tuesday November 28th, 2019 at 1 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks (rated 3 stars)

After an ordinary 2-2 start, the Vikings have gone 6-1 since then. Their only loss during that seven-game stretch was a 26-23 defeat at the Chiefs, on a 44-yard field goal by Harrison Butker as time expired.

If you have been following my work for a while, you know I value the “rest” and “revenge” factors in the NFL. In this case, both point in Minnesota’s direction.

Indeed, the Vikings are coming off their bye week, which is a huge bonus prior to such a key game. Also, Mike Zimmer’s squad will be looking to avenge a 21-7 loss in Week #14 last year. Don’t be misled by the final score, though; the Seahawks were only up 6-0 with three minutes left in the game!

There’s no denying Seattle is a good team; they still hold a 9-2 record! But they haven’t been crushing their opponents, as shown by the fact that 8 of their 9 wins were by one possession (i.e. 8 points or less). As a matter of fact, they have won four games by a margin of just 1-2 point(s), and they came on top on a couple of overtime games.

Minnesota has a point differential of +84 versus +29 for Seattle. However, I’m a bit worried by Seattle having won the past five meetings with the Vikings.

Still, I expect a hard-fought game and I believe the Seahawks have much less than a 50% chance of beating the Vikings by 4 points or more.

Enjoy this great matchup!

Professor MJ

[Valiant Thor]

WEEK 13 update

Coinflip this week with 8/16 of total selections beating the spread......... 50%

Poor week for selected bets with only 2/5 beating the spread

EAGLES failed to swoop against the dolphins

RAMS left the cardinals praying for better things

GREEN BAY sent the giants packing

Texans made a stand against the PATS

No raiding party for the VIKINGS at Seattle

Still hanging in there with a profit

 

[ProfessorMJ]

Week #14 Picks by Stats University Professor

Written Wednesday December 4th at 11 am Eastern Time (odds/spreads may have changed)

PICK: Atlanta Falcons -3 vs Carolina Panthers (rated 3 stars)

Carolina will be looking to avenge a 29-to-3 loss in Week #11, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. The Falcons have owned the Panthers over the past few years. Indeed, Atlanta is 7-1 both straight up and ATS in the last eight meetings between these two squads!

Kyle Allen had decent stats in an awful home loss to the Redskins last week, but don’t be misled by the numbers. He did not play well at all. He turns the ball over too often: he has thrown 10 interceptions and lost 6 fumbles this season.

Atlanta gets three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. Also, they are going to be at home for a third straight week.

From an injury standpoint, there are several good news for the Falcons. First, star wide receiver Julio Jones is likely to suit up, as well as tight end Austin Hooper who has enjoyed a great 2019 season. On top of that, right guard Chris Lindstrom has a good chance to be back; he was hurt in the season opener and is ready to roll. That’s good news for a guy that does not move well in the pocket like Matt Ryan.

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 at Cleveland Browns (rated 2 stars)

The Browns’ chances of making the playoffs took a huge blow when they lost in Pittsburgh with their third-string quarterback last week. Ouch! Will they find enough motivation to keep grinding this weekend?

Cincinnati has had nice success over Cleveland recently. Here is the evidence: the Bengals are 8-1 ATS over the past nine meetings with the Browns, including 5-0 ATS in Cleveland! Andy Dalton seems comfortable playing in the Dawg Pound.

Speaking of Dalton, he made a successful return as starting QB last week by beating the Jets 22-to-6. It provided rookie head coach Zac Taylor his first career win. Cincinnati is expecting wide receiver John Ross to return to the lineup, which will be of great help to the “Red Rifle.”

Baker Mayfield hurt his hand last week. It won’t prevent him from playing, but it could bother him during the game. Also, left tackle Greg Robinson is uncertain to play for the Browns, although he seems to have a good shot to be on the field this Sunday.

The Bengals had to travel just once over the past five weeks.

I’m betting Cincinnati to keep it close. They could even pull off the big upset if Cleveland has already packed it in after feeling like they are out of the playoff race.

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars (rated 1 star)

A few betting angles indicate to bet the Jaguars, including the fact that the Chargers will be traveling East through three time zones and that they will be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks.

Still, I’ll put my money on Anthony Lynn’s team. The Chargers beat the spread in the last seven meetings with the Jags (including 4-0 ATS in Jacksonville!). Also, here’s an unbelievable stat: all 8 Chargers losses came by a seven-point margin or less!

Meanwhile, Jacksonville has lost its past four games. Each of those losses were not even close, as evidenced by the fact that the margin of defeat was between 17 and 23. Prior to this four-game losing skid, the Jaguars won a couple of games, but they came over the lowly Bengals and Jets.

Doug Marrone is not on the hot seat; he’s on the boiling seat. Many reports suggest he will be gone when the season ends, or even earlier if things continue to go as badly. I don’t think the players have any motivation left whatsoever.

Gardner Minshew will be back under center, but don’t expect miracles from him. The team looks in complete disarray.

Both Chargers safeties were back last week: Adrian Phillips and Derwin James. The team still lost in Denver, but it remains great news for Los Angeles.

Best of luck with your sports investments this weekend!

Professor MJ

[Valiant Thor]

Week 14 (a little late having problems with spreadsheet not updating  but the Bears game isn't a selection anyway)

 

All updated now

Quite a few selections this week (6 with joint NB bets  )

 

 

Edited December 6, 2019 by Valiant Thor

[harry_rag]

Assuming I haven't lost all sense of what the word means, I've found 12 "value" anytime TD scorer bets on tonight's games. All posted in the following thread, let's see how they fare but it could be brutal!

 

[harry_rag]

5 winners for a reasonable profit last night, 2 that appeal in the NYG/Philly game, Tate at 4.4 and Shepard at 4.9.

[Valiant Thor]

Week 14 Roundup

All selections another coinflip  8/16 or 50% ?

Same with selected bets 3/6 of 50% ?

The 49'ers did the nap proud

Packers won the game but missed the spread

Pittsburgh stole the show in this game

Falcons had the sharper claws in the Panthers game

Ravens flew high against the Bills

Jets won the game but missed the spread

Still in profit

[ProfessorMJ]

Thursday Night Football (Week #15)

PICK: Baltimore Ravens -14.5 vs New York Jets (rated 4 stars)

Want to get a chance to win $100 without any risk? Keep reading until the end. ?????

If you have been following me a little bit, you know I rarely bet big favorites. I’ll do an exception and take the Ravens to cover that big spread on Thursday night.

One of the tricks I use when handicapping games is to ask myself the following question: if God were to tell me in advance that one of these two teams is going to beat the spread by 10 points, which team would be more likely to do so?

In this case, it comes down to the following: is it more likely that the Ravens win by 4 or 24 points? To me, the answer came quickly in my mind: Baltimore by 24. I don’t believe the Jets have any chance to win this game, unless a miracle happens (perhaps 3-4 lost fumbles by Baltimore). I don’t see them keeping it as close as a four-point margin.

I do have a few concerns about this game, though. Despite having an exceptional year, Baltimore is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite in 2019. They are also 1-8 ATS over their past nine matchups at home when facing a team with a losing record. Also, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who is graded #4 out of 63 tackles by Pro Football Focus, is likely out with a concussion.

Enough with the drawbacks. Generally speaking, I like backing elite teams on “focus” games, which includes playing on national television in the Thursday night game. It guarantees they won’t play soft and let down against a weaker opponent.

Also, the Jets organization is not going in the right direction. I do not believe Adam Gase is a smart head coach who has a good control of his squad. His star running back Le’Veon Bell missed Sunday’s game because of the flu, but he was spotted bowling the day before. The team lacks a winning culture and it is poorly run from top to bottom.

Granted, the Jets have won four of their past five matches. But those wins occurred against weak opposition: the Giants, the Redskins, the Raiders and the Dolphins. Recall that New York’s last three losses were against the Bengals, the Dolphins and the Jaguars. That’s embarrassing.

The last time the Jets played a team with a winning record, they were stomped 33-0 at home against New England. That was eight weeks ago, so it’s been a while since they had a chance to face a decent team. They are not ready to face the hottest team in the league. On the road, on top of that!

There are two players from the Jets’ defense that are very good: C.J. Mosley and Jamal Adams. Now, Mosley is out for the year, while Jamal Adams is doubtful to suit up, which means he has much less than a 50% chance to be on the field.

I liked the emergence of tight end Ryan Griffin, but he was just declared out of the game too. And wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is doubtful. That limits the number of viable targets for Sam Darnold.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s hot streak has been well-documented. They are riding a 9-game winning streak that includes impressive wins in Seattle, at the Rams, and at home against the Patriots, the Texans and the 49ers. That’s a nice accomplishment!

The Ravens defense has been pretty stingy of late. They have not allowed more than 20 points in any of their past eight outings!

The big point spread is going to scare many people, but don’t be one of them. Don’t overthink this one, as the Ravens should win easily.

If the Jets win the game straight up, I'll give away $100 USD to a random person commenting my YouTube video. You've got nothing to lose, so just do it!

Enjoy the game!

Professor MJ

[Valiant Thor]

Week 15

4 Selections this week with 3 equal NB selections

 

[ProfessorMJ]

NFL Picks for Week #15

PICK: New England Patriots -9 at Cincinnati Bengals (rated 4 stars)

Let’s kick off with a few stats. The Patriots are 5-1 both against the spread (ATS) and straight up over the past six meetings with the Bengals. New England also holds a 4-0 ATS record on the road against teams with a losing record.

As for the Bengals, they are posting a bad 1-6 ATS record as home underdogs.

I know the Patriots don’t look the same. But I wouldn’t bet against a Belichick-coached team following a couple of losses. No way!

One might argue this is a sandwich game for New England after facing the Chiefs and awaiting a key meeting with the Bills. However, considering this game is very important for New England, I do not believe they will fall into a trap.

The Patriots eat bad teams for breakfast. They have played five games against teams with a 5-8 record or worse. In those games, they outscored their opponents 174-to-35!! That’s an average margin of victory of 28 points. So do you think they can win this one by at least 10 points? You bet they can!

So, overall, yes the Pats offense is struggling but Cincy’s defense allows an average of close to 400 yards per game. New England will find a way to move the ball, while their defense will complicate things for Andy Dalton and company.

PICK: Chicago Bears +4.5 at Green Bay Packers (rated 2 stars)

After starting the season with a 3-5 record, the Bears have gone 4-1 since then. Their defense has allowed a maximum of 24 points in each of their past seven contests. With their offense finally finding some rhythm, that should be enough to cover the 4.5 point spread.

Green Bay’s defense is okay, but not stout either. They rank 22nd in yards allowed per game. Mitch Trubisky finally woke up recently; he tossed 6 TD passes versus 2 picks in his previous two games. He also completed 75% of his passes during this stretch. I think the Bears will be able to move the ball at Lambeau Field this Sunday.

Chicago gets three extra days of rest after hosting the Cowboys last Thursday. They will be looking for payback after a 10-3 loss in the season opener to those same Packers.

I would pound this game more if Roquan Smith didn’t get hurt. I think he did a fine job this season at linebacker, but he landed on injured reserve a few days ago.

Divisional games tend to be more tight, and I don’t believe this one will be an exception. Take Da Bears and the points here.

PICK: Buffalo Bills +2 at Pittsburgh Steelers (rated 2 stars)

I like the way the Buffalo organization is headed. They are playing smart football and their players are buying Sean McDermott’s message. They proved they were serious contenders last week by limiting Lamar Jackson and his friends, a task that seemed impossible to do based on Baltimore’s unbelievable run.

The Bills are 3-0 ATS after a straight up loss this year; they don’t get crushed after losing a game.

Both teams have a very solid defense. However, I trust Buffalo’s offense a lot more and I think Josh Allen will do enough to get the W on the road.

Devlin Hodges is 3-0 as a starter. However, if you remove points scored by the defense and special teams, he generated 17.7 points per game on average (which included a game against a weak Arizona defense). He has not faced a defense like Buffalo’s and he’s likely to struggle a lot. I am aware that James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster are likely to be back, but it won’t be enough with their third-string quarterback.

The Steelers lead the league with 33 takeaways. That’s out of the ordinary and difficult to sustain. Josh Allen has more experience trying to avoid turnovers than Hodges does. In the end, I believe Buffalo comes out on top to secure a playoff berth.

Gooooooood luck with your plays this week!

Professor MJ

[Valiant Thor]

Week 15 Roundup

Total selections 9/16 or 56%

Selected Bets 2/4 or 50%

The NAP comes good with an easy victory for the PATS

No problems in this game for the RAVENS

Another bad day for the BEARS

COLTS misfired against the Saints

still clinging on to profit after a small loss this weekend.

[Valiant Thor]

Week 16

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Valiant Thor
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