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ProfessorMJ

NFL 2019/20

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WEEK 5 ROUNDUP

image.thumb.png.7cececd07ea6ecfa0050903dd127c7fd.png

WEEK 5 TOTAL SELECTIONS 9/15 or 60% :ok

image.png.59a129b441f1767443767859f3106ed5.png:cigar   My NAP on the SAINTS came good again 31 - 24

image.png.5762dc24bc49a9b0c1128d57bcd28d38.png:(     Unfortunately it was no picnic for the BEARS who lost 24 - 21

image.png.175841637d2aa3566c1cb48cb2586618.png

The FULL SEASON TO DATE as it implies incorporates weeks 1 & 2 whose selections were not put up as there was very little data to estimate the spread and make reasonable selections. 

The SEASON TO DATE SINCE POSTING again as it implies are all the selections , bets , NAPS & NB's posted on the board pre game (from week 2 onward) and is a more accurate indication of how things are going .

I'll put them up after each week to see how things progress or regress ( whichever the case may be,hopefully the former :hope )

:ok

 

 

 

Edited by Valiant Thor
Add summary

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WEEK #7

Written Wednesday October 16th, 2019 at 3 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Miami Dolphins +17 at Buffalo Bills (rated 1 star)

The Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread this season, while the Bills are 4-1 ATS. Buffalo is also coming off its bye week. And you know I like the Bills after betting $10,000 on them to win at least 7 games this year. So why the heck am I picking Miami, then?

The main reason is this is a huge spread to cover for a team whose offense is not clicking yet. The Bills are scoring an average of 18 points per game. Suppose the Dolphins score just 10 points this weekend, this means Buffalo must score at least 28 points to beat the spread. It won’t be easy and I am betting this event has less than a 50% chance of happening.

I am aware that Miami has allowed an average of 36 points per game. But the Redskins also have a struggling offense and they only scored 17 in Miami last week. This is a divisional game and I expect the Dolphins to give a good fight and keep it close.

Sure, the Bills will be well-rested; they needed it after many players got hurt when they beat the Titans, including center Mitch Morse and linebacker Matt Milano. However, Miami is coming off three straight weeks where they stayed at home, including their bye week a couple of weeks ago.

After claiming Josh Rosen would be the starting quarterback for the rest of the year, head coach Brian Flores announced Ryan Fitzpatrick would get the start in Buffalo. The news just broke an hour before I posted this article. From a betting perspective, I like it because I do think Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins a better chance of winning.

Bills win a surprisingly tight game.

LEAN #1: Houston Texans +1 at Indianapolis Colts

If you like this play, I recommend placing your bet early because I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston becomes the favorite by Sunday.

There have been several occasions this year where my betting angles recommended betting a team, but my own analysis wanted to bet their opponent. In those cases, I stayed away from the game. And in almost all instances, I should have picked the team I wanted to bet based on my own judgment.

This time, I’m gonna do it. The Colts have an edge based on rest since they are coming off their bye week, and it will also be their fourth game at home out of the past five weeks (by counting the bye week as a “home game”).

Normally, I would have tend to avoid the Texans since they might letdown after upsetting the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

But I’m going to go with my gut and bet Houston. For every game, I try to assess a “fair” line before looking at the actual spread. In this case, I thought the Texans would be 2.5 or 3-point favorites. I was stunned they were slight underdogs.

I firmly believe they will go on a great run and be Super Bowl contenders, especially in a weak AFC conference.

The Texans are 4-2, but could easily be 5-1. Remember the Week #1 Monday Night game where they were defeated 30-28 in New Orleans on a 58-yard field goal as time expired. And their only other loss was a 16-10 stinker against Carolina. But the Panthers don’t look so bad now after winning their past four matchups.

Houston also faced tougher competition. Their opponents hold an 18-18 record, while Indy’s opponents are 12-17. The Colts’ largest win occurred by a 6-point margin.

Jacoby Brissett has done a good job thus far, but I trust Deshaun Watson a lot more. Houston wins and gets additional breathing room as AFC South division leaders.

LEAN #2: Washington Redskins +10 vs San Francisco 49ers

This is the makeup for a letdown game by the Niners. They are all excited from making a big statement against the Rams and it will be easy to look past the lowly Redskins.

I may be the only person in my camp, but I think Case Keenum is not that bad. I’m not saying he is a great quarterback, but he can do some good things. Along with rookie Terry McLaurin, they can put some points on the board.

San Francisco will also be traveling through 3 time zones to play a 1 PM Eastern Time game.

And don’t forget the Niners will be missing two key offensive linemen: Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey.

Overall, the 49ers faced very weak teams, whose combined record this season is just 9-21.

I like the Skins to keep it a 10-point game or less.

LEAN #3: Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Denver Broncos

It looked like Kansas City was going to cruise easily to a division title, especially with the Chargers crashing down. But hold on a second! The Chiefs are now going through a slump themselves, with the Raiders now breathing down their neck.

The Chiefs did not cover the spread in each of their past four games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have beaten the spread on two straight occasions. Will the trend continue or not? I say: no!

The Chiefs lost their last two games, both at home. It might be a good thing to go on the road, where there won’t be as much pressure to do well. Maybe K.C. is trying to do too much. Playing in a tough environment like Denver, they’ll focus on executing things well and not trying to be too fancy.

If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like betting elite teams following a straight up loss. Not only do the Chiefs meet those criteria, but this angle seems to do even better on “focus” games, which includes playing on Thursday Night Football on a non-standard practice week.

The Chiefs are 4-2 despite facing good teams. If you remove the games against the Chiefs, their opponents hold a 16-10-1 record. As a comparison, Denver’s opponents are posting a 13-15 record (after removing matchups versus the Broncos).

Denver is coming off a nice shutout performance against the Titans. They’ll realize quickly that Kansas City has much more firepower on offense, though.

Sammy Watkins has a fairly good chance of suiting up this Thursday. However, Eric Fisher is still out and Cam Erving is questionable. If he can’t go, K.C. would have to call their third-string left tackle. They are also thin on the defensive line and have a couple of guys whose status is uncertain right now.

There are a couple of things that prevent me from making it an official pick. First, the revenge factor. Denver lost both meetings in 2018 by 6 and 7-point margins. Also, the Broncos will be playing a third game at home out of their past four matches.

Let’s make some $$$$$$$$ this week!

Professor MJ

Edited by ProfessorMJ
Date it was written is 16th, not 9th

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NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #7)

I am going to start sharing my picks on NFL player props!

How are the picks made?

They are based on a mix of two things:
a) Player projections made by reliable websites (I am a member of some paid sites who provide great info about the NFL)
b) My own judgment

So basically, I compare the lines posted by bookies with the player projections I obtain from paid websites.

If there is a fairly big difference between the two, and the pick also makes sense to me, I am betting it!

IMPORTANT REMARK: The odds matter a lot! I do not recommend betting those player props if your bookie has odds that differ quite a bit from those stated below.

For example, if I bet at +140 and your bookie offers the same prop at +115, stay away!

Without further ado, here are the plays I made with Pinnacle at 8 PM Eastern Time on Friday October 18:

PICK #1: Devonta Freeman over 3.5 receptions (at +140 or 2.40)
PICK #2: Brandin Cooks under 4.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93)
PICK #3: Leonard Fournette over 4.5 receptions (at +122 or 2.22)
PICK #4: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +131 or 2.31)
PICK #5: Case Keenum under 213.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #6: Jason Sanders under 6.5 kicking points (at -105 or 1.95)
PICK #7: Julio Jones under 5.5 receptions (at +121 or 2.21)
PICK #8: Matt Ryan to throw an interception (at -107 or 1.93)

 
I'll keep track of the record in the following weeks.

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ
 

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I've got 4 good ones for the Monday Nighters between the Pats and the Jets:
 
PICK #1: Demaryius Thomas over 3.5 receptions (at +115 or 2.15)
PICK #2: Tom Brady under 289.5 passing yards (at -124 or 1.81)
PICK #3: Jakobi Meyers under 2.5 receptions (at +110 or 2.10)
PICK #4: James White under 5.5 receptions (at -110 or 1.91)
 
Good luck!
 

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WEEK 7 ROUNDUP

image.thumb.png.e7be348e93a1f5c0cafd1dee2b57b004.png

Week 7 total selections 5/14 or 36%  :$ not good at all

But on the plus side 4/4 on the selected bets :ok

image.png.ad7a9707c99bef16257822b4eac7427a.pngVIKINGS raided the lions den and and came out best 42-30  :cigar

image.png.c9709c619f897aec52957e6c6b2100ad.pngJets crashed to a 33-0 defeat to the PATRIOTS :cigar

image.png.0934a3b2fe3d2305762fa090b028e02d.pngGREEN BAY sent the Raiders packing with a 42-24 victory :cigar

image.png.de68931cc675149e41f04a47730651f8.pngFalcons wings clipped again this week 37-10 to the LA RAMS :cigar

image.png.e67b120d9db8a8b909a1b33646943865.png

 

Edited by Valiant Thor
calculation error in full season

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13 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

WEEK 7 ROUNDUP

image.thumb.png.e7be348e93a1f5c0cafd1dee2b57b004.png

Week 7 total selections 5/14 or 36%  :$ not good at all

But on the plus side 4/4 on the selected bets :ok

image.png.ad7a9707c99bef16257822b4eac7427a.pngVIKINGS raided the lions den and and came out best 42-30  :cigar

image.png.c9709c619f897aec52957e6c6b2100ad.pngJets crashed to a 33-0 defeat to the PATRIOTS :cigar

image.png.0934a3b2fe3d2305762fa090b028e02d.pngGREEN BAY sent the Raiders packing with a 42-24 victory :cigar

image.png.de68931cc675149e41f04a47730651f8.pngFalcons wings clipped again this week 37-10 to the LA RAMS :cigar

image.png.e67b120d9db8a8b909a1b33646943865.png

 

Great job buddy!! Quick (and potentially stupid) question: what does "NAPS" and "NB" mean?

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - WEEK #8

LEAN: Washington Redskins +15.5 at Minnesota Vikings

This is clearly a sandwich game for the Vikings. They are coming off a divisional game in Detroit and they are awaiting meetings with the Chiefs and the Cowboys. It will be easy to look past the lowly Redskins.

As a true contrarian, I felt like it might be a good strategy to bet teams coming off a shutout loss. Since 1989, such teams hold a 118-95 record against the spread, which equates to a 55.4% win rate. Not too bad! Considering the Skins were shutout by the Niners last Sunday, that’s one more argument in their favor.

I don’t trust quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins nor Colt McCoy to succeed immediately. Thankfully, head coach Bill Callahan confirmed Case Keenum would get the start this Thursday. If you’re thinking long-term, perhaps Haskins is a viable option, but as a sports bettor I much prefer seeing Keenum under center in Minnesota. He still has thrown 9 TDs versus 4 picks this year, while completing 66% of his passes.

Speaking of Keenum, don’t forget he played in Minnesota a couple of years ago. He enjoyed a great season by throwing for more than 3500 yards with 22 TD passes and 7 interceptions. He is familiar with the Vikings and will be motivated to do well against his former team.

The big question mark, from an injury standpoint, is the status of star wide receiver Adam Thielen. He hurt his hamstring in Detroit and at first sight he was thought to be very unlikely to play on such a short turnaround. Thielen himself now claims he is optimistic he can suit up this Thursday. Why not make sure he fully recovers in time for a key matchup against the Chiefs next week, though?

I’m taking the Redskins to cover the 15.5 point spread, but not as an official play (not confident enough for that).

Professor MJ

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Written Wednesday October 23rd, 2019 at 11 AM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: New York Jets +6 at Jacksonville Jaguars (rated 4 stars)

This is a perfect example of overreaction to recent results. The line is clearly inflated because of the humiliation inflicted by the Patriots to the Jets on national television Monday night.

Sam Darnold looked awful by turning the ball over 5 times. Does that suddenly make him the worst QB in the league? Of course, not. As usual, Bill Belichick came up with a smart plan and it worked to perfection. New York’s offensive line had trouble figuring out which players were going to blitz, and Darnold was under pressure all game long.

Let’s look at the numbers. In Darnold’s two other games this season, he has completed 51 of his 73 passes for a 70% completion rate. He threw 3 TD passes versus just one pick. And those games occurred against above-average defenses: the Bills and the Cowboys.

This dreadful loss against what we may be the best team in the NFL does not make the Jets a super bad team all of a sudden. Before the season began, the line in Vegas for their regular season wins was 7.5 (which was about the same for Jacksonville, by the way). Sure, they are 1-5 right now, but Luke Falk was the quarterback for three of those games.

To me, the Jets and the Jags are pretty much of equal strength. In my humble opinion, Jacksonville should be favored by 3-4 points; 4.5 at most! The 6-point spread seems like a bargain to me!

Elements not favoring New York: they lose one day of rest/preparation after playing the Monday Nighter, and the matchup against the Jags is sandwiched between a couple of divisional games (against the Pats and the Dolphins).

Factors favoring New York: they’ll want to avenge a 31-12 loss in Jacksonville last year. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after such an embarrassing performance on primetime television. They are coming off a stretch of four games where they were at home on three occasions (not much traveling). And the Jags could be looking ahead to a critical showdown against the Texans next week.

Give me the Jets as 6-point dogs.

LEAN: Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs Tampa Bay Bucs

I rarely fade teams after their bye week, but I’m going to do it here.

This is a non-conference road game for Tampa, which is not super motivating. This meeting also marks a sandwich game for the Bucs; they are coming off a couple of key games against the Saints and the Panthers, and they are going to face the Seahawks next.

The Titans are at home for the third time in four weeks.

People often focus much more of each team’s offense but overlook their defense. In this case, it’s a total mismatch. The Bucs have allowed an average of 31 points per game, while the Titans have surrendered just 16 points per game. They have not allowed more than 20 points through their first seven contests, which is exceptional!

When two evenly matched teams face each other, the point spread usually favors the home team by 3 points. In this case, Tennessee is established as 2.5-point favorites, which implies Tampa is a slightly better team. I disagree, as I feel the Titans are a bit stronger, especially with Ryan Tannehill under center. To me, he’s a better QB than Marcus Mariota. Switching QBs was a smart move by head coach Mike Vrabel, in my opinion.

I’m going with the Titans in this one.

I hope you enjoyed this week’s write up, we’ll talk again next week!

Professor MJ

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NFL PLAYER PROPS - WEEK #8

Player proposition bets went 6-6 last week.

I am very hopeful we can crush it this week!

The odds stated below are from Pinnacle at 2 PM Eastern Time on Thursday October 24:

PICK #1: Paul Richardson under 2.5 receptions (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #2: Dan Bailey over 7.5 kicking points (at -122 or 1.82)
PICK #3: Kyle Allen over 0.5 interceptions (at -141 or 1.71)
PICK #4: Andy Dalton under 1.5 TD passes (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #5: Trey Burton under 2.5 receptions (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 3.5 receptions (at +119 or 2.19)
PICK #7: Gardner Minshew under 243.5 passing yards (at -115 or 1.87)
PICK #8: Derek Carr under 262.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #9: Russell Wilson under 267.5 passing yards (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #10: Chris Godwin under 0.5 TD receptions (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #11: Derrick Henry over 66.5 rushing yards (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #12: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +124 or 2.24)
PICK #13: T.Y. Hilton over 4.5 receptions (at -153 or 1.65)

Let's beat those bookies!

Professor MJ

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LEAN: Miami Dolphins +14.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Mason Rudolph cleared the league’s concussion protocol and should be ready to go against Miami. I’m very happy for him because that injury looked ugly, as he was knocked out cold against the Ravens.

Still, we’re talking about the Steelers with their backup quarterback having to win by at least 15 points to cover the spread. I agree that Miami has a bad roster, but that seems like a big spread to me.

The Dolphins are showing signs of improvement. Seriously. They could have beaten the Bills in Buffalo last week. They were up 14-9 and opened the third quarter with a long sustained drive. They were in the red zone looking to grab a 21-9 lead, but cornerback Tre’Davious White made an outstanding play to intercept a pass at the 2-yard line. That completely turned the game around.

Ryan Fitzpatrick gives them a chance to win. I’ll be honest with you, I love the guy. He doesn’t take himself too seriously, he plays with passion and his aggressiveness makes him fun to watch. He regularly takes shots down the field and that makes him throw more TD passes and also more interceptions. You won’t get bored from watching him play.

Despite all of this, I could not make it an official play. We’re still talking about one of the worst NFL teams the league has ever seen. The Steelers are coming off their bye week, and they have been at home on four of the past five weeks.

I’m still taking Miami, but with some caution. The Dolphins have covered the spread in their last two meetings.

Enjoy the game!

Professor MJ

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Week 8 roundup

image.thumb.png.32e66351acebc9dff9b65facaedca194.png

Week 8 total selections 7/15 or 46% not too good :$

Also 2/4 on the selected bets with both the NAP & NB bets losing :$

image.png.c51528b3ba608c71b9535ffa62c97b42.png  Green Bay packed a bigger punch than the CHIEFS :$

image.png.e8edf5800dae6ea50f464bee7b4e8438.pngTEXANS  held off the raiders but missed the spread :$

image.png.18cebdd1127e9b6505c3454380154d71.pngSAINTS in heaven with a win over the Cardinals :cigar

image.png.ccae3f823cace0d378c5801b340d8c8a.pngSEAHAWKS flew to high for the Falcons :cigar

image.png.b05fbcd116c7806de2704cb13e5332ed.png

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - WEEK #9

LEAN: San Francisco 49ers -9.5 at Arizona Cardinals

I don’t pick big favorites very often, but I’m gonna do it here. One more oddity: I don’t feel good betting teams coming off a blowout win, especially when facing a team coming off a blowout loss. Based on these elements, you wouldn’t expect me to take the Niners.

However, San Francisco has impressed so much that I cannot help picking them. Their defense is simply amazing. They have allowed just 11 points per game on average this year. Over the past four games, against the Browns, the Rams, the Redskins and the Panthers, they have surrendered just 5.75 points per game. That’s incredible!

Kyler Murray has done a good job thus far in his rookie season, but he has never faced such a tough defense in his career. He will be running for his life behind his suspect offensive line.

A few weeks ago, the Niners lost a couple of key guys on the offensive line: Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. Staley is tentatively expected to return this week. Getting the big fella back would be great news for San Francisco.

Both running backs David Johnson and Chase Edmonds seem likely to miss the game Thursday, but the Cards recently acquired Kenyan Drake from the Dolphins. However, coach Kingsbury admitted Drake won’t be ready for a full workload on a short week playing for a new team. Therefore, the running game will have trouble getting Kyler Murray some help.

The 49ers certainly remember losing both meetings to the Cards last season: 28-18 at home and 18-15 on the road. As a matter of fact, San Francisco has lost the past 8 meetings between the two squads!!! I’m sure they are looking for payback.

One could argue that the 49ers could be looking ahead to a critical matchup against the Seahawks next week. While this is concerning me a little bit, I don’t believe San Francisco is likely to take a divisional game too lightly, especially considering their 8-game losing skid against the Cards.

As I’ve mentioned in previous videos, road teams are doing well in Thursday night games this year. Indeed, they have beaten the spread on six out of eight weeks.

So to recap, I’m taking the Niners to win by 10 points or more in Arizona.

Professor MJ

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WEEK #9

Written Wednesday October 30rd, 2019 at 3 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: New York Jets -3 at Miami Dolphins (rated 4 stars)

For the third straight week, the Dolphins came close to winning a game. They failed to convert a 2-point conversion against the Redskins in a 17-16 loss in Week #6. They led 14-9 at halftime in Buffalo before losing 31-21. Last week, they grabbed an early 14-0 lead before collapsing to a 27-14 defeat in Pittsburgh.

Those losses must be very discouraging for Miami and I could see them losing by a good margin this week. Remember they were 6-point underdogs at home against the Redskins. Why are they now just 3-point dogs? Are the Jets that worse than Washington? I don’t think so! To me, the Jets are a much better team.

After turning the ball over five times against the Pats, Sam Darnold threw three more interceptions in Jacksonville last week. But let’s be honest: Miami’s defense is much weaker than the last two opponents Darnold faced! I expect him to rebound nicely and shred the Dolphins, especially with Miami losing their number one cornerback, Xavien Howard, to a knee injury.

Keep in mind the Dolphins lose one day of rest after playing the Monday Nighter last week.

Also, the Jets have the revenge factor going their way since they lost both meetings to Miami in 2018: 20-12 at home and 13-6 in Miami.

I’m gladly taking New York to win by at least 7 points in this one.

PICK: Cleveland Browns -3 at Denver Broncos (rated 3 stars)

One of the things I do when handicapping NFL games is to try to “predict” the line and compare with the actual spread. This week, my projections came within one point of the actual line, expect this one. I thought the Browns would be 6-point favorites.

Quarterback Joe Flacco is out many weeks and he will be replaced by an unproven guy named Brandon Allen. It will be his first NFL start.

Allen is a former sixth-round pick in the 2016 draft. In two preseason games with the Rams in 2019, he completed close to 60% of his passes with no TD pass and 3 interceptions. Back in 2018, he posted a similar completion rate, but this time with 1 TD pass and a couple of picks. Overall, that makes 1 TD pass versus 5 interceptions against probably the 2nd or 3rd string players from his opponents.

It does not bode well for him against a decent Cleveland defense. They are ranked 10th in terms of sacks, so they know how to pressure quarterbacks. Myles Garrett has been terrorizing opposing QBs with already 10 sacks in just 7 games. He’s a beast.

Many people might disagree with me, but I think Cleveland is much better than their 2-5 record indicates. Except the Jets, they faced some tough teams to beat: New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Baltimore, the Rams and the Titans. Their offense moved the ball pretty well against the very stingy Pats defense last week. If not for three turnovers, they might have had a shot at beating the Pats on the road.

Even though the Browns will be traveling through a couple of time zones, I’m still going with Cleveland laying three points.

PICK: Tampa Bay Bucs +6 at Seattle Seahawks (rated 2 stars)

This won’t be a popular pick. Many bettors are falling into the trap of feeling like the spread should be bigger on a 6-2 home team who is facing a 2-5 road team.

A lot of people overvalue how difficult it is to play in Seattle. It has not been such a scary place this year. The Seahawks are 2-2 at home, with their two wins occurring by a one-point margin against the Rams and the lowly Bengals.

I also want to point out Tampa’s strength of opposition. The combined record of their opponents this season is 35-26. The only “easy” game was at home against the Giants, which they lost 32-31. However, they pulled off great wins in Carolina and at the Rams.

The Bucs could very easily hold a 4-3 record. A missed 34-yard field goal as time expired cost them the game against the Giants. And an inadvertent whistle cost them a touchdown on a fumble return against the Titans with less than 4 minutes left last week.

Six of Tampa’s seven games have been against top 10 defenses. In those matchups, they averaged 27.5 points per game. That’s impressive stuff! With Seattle’s defense ranking 30th in terms of yards per play, you can expect the Bucs to light up the scoreboard.

Granted, Seattle also has the weapons to score a boatload of points. I expect a shootout that can go either way, in which case I’ll always go with the underdog.

LEAN: Buffalo Bills -9.5 vs Washington Redskins

In my mind, there is a HUGE gap between Case Keenum and any of the other Washington QBs. Dwayne Haskins and Colt McCoy are just awful.

For this reason, I like this play a lot more if Keenum misses the game. He is going through the league’s concussion protocol and we don’t know yet if he going to get thrown into action or not at New Era Field this Sunday.

By the way, I’ll be attending this game in person and I’m looking forward to it! Hopefully, the Bills can rack up their sixth win of the season, so I’ll be just one win away from cashing that big $10,000 bet on over 6.5 regular season wins by Buffalo (a bet I placed back in May – see video here).

The rest factor plays largely in favor of Sean McDermott’s squad. A team staying at home four straight weeks is seldom seen in the NFL, but that’s the case for Buffalo (including their bye week). Meanwhile, the Skins are on the road for a third time in the past four weeks. However, one thing helps Washington: they played last Thursday so they benefit from three extra days of rest.

With a 1-7 record and their bye week up next, I can envision the Redskins giving up easily. In the meantine, after a solid 4-1 start the Bills have looked shaky in their two games since their bye week. They had all kinds of trouble handling the Dolphins at home, and they were gashed big time by the Eagles last week. After allowing just 14 points per game on average over their first five games, they have given up 21 and 31 points in their most recent matchups.

There is no way Buffalo will look past the Redskins after such disappointing performances. I expect their level of motivation to be 100 times higher than Washington’s.

That being said, I’d be cautious if Keenum plays. Like I said last week when I picked the Redskins to cover the spread in Minnesota, I’m probably one of the few that thinks Keenum is not a bad quarterback. He played great in the first half in Minnesota, before exiting because of a concussion. If he is out and Haskins steps in, I’ll jump on the Bills laying 9.5 points.

LEAN: Baltimore Ravens +3.5 vs New England Patriots

Boy, I hate fading New England. They often find a way to beat the spread. But let’s give it a try, shall we?

The Ravens are coming off their bye week, which leaves them with plenty of time to game plan against the Pats. They didn’t have to travel very often recently; they will be at home for the third time out of the past four weeks.

The crowd will be fired up for a meeting against the undefeated Pats on national television. It will be deafening at M&T Bank Stadium this Sunday night. That will certainly give the Ravens a boost.

Bill Belichick is obviously a master at game planning against his next opponent. However, it’s hard to replicate in practice facing a QB like Lamar Jackson, who is so elusive. What you see on tape is different from playing him in actual speed.

New England will face a team with a positive record for just the second time in nine games.

I know, I know. Belichick eats young quarterbacks for breakfast. The Pats have won 21 games in a row against first- or second-year signal callers. That’s why this is probably the pick I have the least confidence in.

Best of luck, go get those bookies guys!

Professor MJ

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