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BillyHills

Racing Chat - Mon Sept 2nd

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5 meetings on Monday

Nap: 505 B: Wiley Post 15/8 bet365
(well backed last time, out to get money back)

Nb: 530 W: Incinerator 11/4 bet365
(sets a good standard and value against the fav)

Other: 740 Hx: Emerald Rocket 11/10 bet365
(Johnson hanging about at Hexham til the last race?)

 

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Been a bit frustrating in August with a few 2nd places from the handful of horses I put up, but the one winner I did put up was Teeton Power and I think she can land the 2nd race at Hexham. It was a superb bit of placing by connections to get her first win under rules and given that came over hurdles her mark is unchanged going back over fences. She drops down in trip even further, but a stiff 2m at Hexham should suit and we all know she is going to front run and play catch me if you can. She is used to carrying big weights in points so carrying 12-3 shouldn't be an issue and she looks to have a superb chance.
 
Of the others Gentleman James won 2 weeks ago, but that was a bad race at Market Rasen and although getting 2st from Teeton Power I think he will find this much harder. Ringagingarosie looks a bigger danger as she is a course and distance winner and ran well at Sedgefield last week when 2nd suggesting this mark isn't beyond her. Wisecracker keeps running OK without winning and Hurricane Rita has gone up a lot in the handicap for winning a couple of bad races in June. It's hard to make much of a case for the others and although she has already been backed the 9/2 is still well worth taking.
 
I put up Damiens Dilemma last time at Cartmel despite the fact I was worried about the soft ground and it is a bet I regret a little as he hated the soft ground. He never really travelled and jumped terribly. He was entered their last week, but with the ground riding on the soft side connections decided to wait for this instead (7.10) and given he is a course and distance winner it is easy to understand why. This trip is more suitable than when he was 2nd at Cartmel in June and based on that he is handicapped to win a race. His pointing form this year was solid enough as well.
 
As for dangers Classical Milano has only ever won here so is has a chance and Apache Pilot has won here 4 times so again has to be considered. King Golan won down in grade last time but could be vulnerable back up in grade. The other one is Gold Patrol who was pointing last year. His only win was when beating According To Trev though and although he won easy it hardly suggests a mark of 109 is kind. He ran OK back under rules last season and his best run was on his seasonal debut and that run gives him a chance here, but Damiens Dilemma looks well worth a bet with everything in his favour.

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Love your great knowledge @Darran Just wonder whether in the future you could share your thoughts on the mindset of these small trainers - are they different from pure NH trainers.

Sorry if what I have written seems a bit rambling, and full of questions!

If Teeton Power were with a NH trainer, I suspect they might use different tactics? I have a renewed interest in PTP’s since becoming a regular reader of your column here.  If your horse, a maiden over NH fences is being asked to lug 12-2 in a handicap, a large trainer would be trying to get the horse beaten to get the handicap mark down - or is Teeton Power able to run in novice chases running off level weights.  So I presume the Harris family don’t have a NH licence, explaining the move to another Leicestershire establishment.  I must admit to changes of trainer between ‘Liz’ and ‘Elizabeth’ Harris 7 times makes me wonder why? Same person? Mother and daughter?

16Mar19 Changed Trainer notification: Miss Liz Harris to Elizabeth Harris
02Mar19 Changed Trainer notification: Elizabeth Harris to Miss Liz Harris

Adam Wedge goes to Hexham for one ride.  I will watch with interest. Andrew

 

 

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1 hour ago, Andy R said:

Love your great knowledge @Darran Just wonder whether in the future you could share your thoughts on the mindset of these small trainers - are they different from pure NH trainers.

Sorry if what I have written seems a bit rambling, and full of questions!

If Teeton Power were with a NH trainer, I suspect they might use different tactics? I have a renewed interest in PTP’s since becoming a regular reader of your column here.  If your horse, a maiden over NH fences is being asked to lug 12-2 in a handicap, a large trainer would be trying to get the horse beaten to get the handicap mark down - or is Teeton Power able to run in novice chases running off level weights.  So I presume the Harris family don’t have a NH licence, explaining the move to another Leicestershire establishment.  I must admit to changes of trainer between ‘Liz’ and ‘Elizabeth’ Harris 7 times makes me wonder why? Same person? Mother and daughter?

16Mar19 Changed Trainer notification: Miss Liz Harris to Elizabeth Harris
02Mar19 Changed Trainer notification: Elizabeth Harris to Miss Liz Harris

Adam Wedge goes to Hexham for one ride.  I will watch with interest. Andrew

 

 

Let me start with the Liz and Elizabeth question first. It is the same person it is just a quirk of the Racing Post site that when a horse runs for the same trainer in points and then under rules that sometimes it comes up under a different version of the name. I suspect those changes were when the horse was entered under rules and then didn't run and ran in a point on its next start so went back to being Elizabeth from Liz. She can run a horse in a hunter chase but as you say she doesn't have a full licence so she can't train it in any other race under rules.

As for the handicap mark the horse is able to run in a class 5 0-100 because they now allow horses rated up to 2lbs above the max mark in a race and she is rated 102. I don't think a big yard would treat the horse any differently. I think they know they have a handicap mark they can exploit so seems pointless wasting runs trying to get it lower. She ran in 3 hunter chases prior to the two handicap chase starts this summer. Uttoxeter she just didn't see the trip out and then at Market Rasen she blew the start and also didn't stay. The handicapper has moved her mark for either of those two runs. She could still run in a novice chase if they wanted but chances are she would be running against much higher rated horses so better off in a handicap. The fact she can run in a class 5 is huge and more important than carrying the big weight. She has proven she can carry big weights so better to do that against lesser horses in my view whilst you still can.

Hope that answers your questions but feel free to ask any more always happy to answer them.

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