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Fader

China Championships (Inc Qualifiers)

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This event gets started in just over a month, at the end of September, but first we have some qualifiers which get underway Thursday-Sunday. I wont be looking at any kind of outright bets myself until next month, but I'm going to take a look for any potential match-up value.

First I like is Wakelin to beat Lee Walker. You wouldn't say either of these were in fantastic form, but Wakelin wins this with frames to spare in my opinion. Lee Walker has lost his last 2 matches 4-0 and 4-1 and has only beat Peter Lines this season. Wakelin lost out to a decider to Gary Wilson at Riga and Joe Perry in China inbetween beating Ross Bulman 6-2. Difference for me is that Wakelin has hit atleast 2 50+ breaks in every match where as Walker has only done that feat in his beating of Lines. Which perhaps shows he scoring better.

I'm also going to take on Mark Williams at a price that's just too big. Andy Lee has never played Mark Williams and to be honest, he isn't very good but Williams last 2 matches have been a deciding frame win over John Astley (ranked 73rd) and losing to Jak Jones (ranked 75th) so although Lee is ranked 91st, at 10/1 i'll take a small 1pt punt. I'll most certainly look to lay Williams in the next round if he makes it through though.

5pts C.Wakelin (-1.5 frames) to beat L.Walker evens unibet
1pt A.Lee to beat M.Williams 10/1 Ladbrokes

 

 

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Looking ahead to tomorrows action in China, there is one I like. That is taking on Barry Hawkins, who was awful last week.

Barry has always started seasons slowly/badly but I'm not normally one to use that as a reason to lay him. However, looking at his start (lost 4-1 at Riga to Jamie O'Neill and lost 6-2 to Daniel Wells) well then anybody (he's playing) looks to have a chance.

Barry Pinches is an experienced pro and although Barry has beat him both times they have played, both have been with a deciding frame. I'm on Pinches in the "Battle of the Barrys"

2pts B.Pinches to beat B.Hawkins 7/1 ladbrokes

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This continues early hours. Looking at the outright markets there are a few I'm going to take. Maguire is bottom half. He is with Trump, but has beaten him easily recently and other than Trump, he has a nice route. Top half Murphy would have to beat Higgins,Selby and Robertson but his recent form is too hot to not back him here. Outsider bets on Wakelin and Ning who are both top half and have the quality to trouble the likes of Selby and co.

2pts E/W S.Murphy to win China Championship 18/1 ladbrokes
1pt E/W S.Maguire to win China Championship 50/1 ladbrokes
0.5pts E/W C.Wakelin to win China Championship 250/1 betfair
0.25pts E/W L.Ning to win China Championship 300/1 ladbrokes

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Day 1 

I fancy Li Hang against Craigie. He has won both the head-to-heads and for me is the better player. He is also in his home country here and it will take a little while for players to adapt you'd imagine.I'll take Gould over Donaldson despite the recent win for Scott. O'Connor looks a good bit of value against Ryan Day. O'Connor beat Day 6-2 in their only other head-2-head. Jak Jones is a player I like and is well capable of beating the likes of Mark Joyce, who in effect is abit of a journeyman.

5pts Li Hang to beat S.Craigie Evens bet365
5.5pts M.Gould to beat S.Donaldson 10/11 bet365
4pts J.O'Connor to beat R.Day 7/4 bet365
5pts J.Jones to beat M.Joyce 11/10 

 

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well 2/4 thanks to Joe O'Connor bottling it in the final frame. Looking at tomorrow and there is 2 that I like. First is Honghao against Ricky Walden. Honghao is nearly at Ricky's level I would say nowadays and Walden has had many injury problems in his career. I think the price on him here is a good one. I'll also take Tom Ford against Vafaei. He beat him in the only h2h and Vafaei hasn't looked his best since returning via Q-School.

4pts L.Honghao to beat R.Walden 11/8 betfred
5pts T.Ford to beat H.Vafaei 4/5 bet365

 

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Honghao does the business at a nice price, whilst Ford was awful. Profit overall and Murphy, Maguire and Wakelin through to the next round. Looking at tomorrow there isn't a whole lot I like in the match-play. The one I will take though is the talented Li Hang to beat John Higgins. Higgins is in really good form right now, but with that good form the old geezar does tend to tire. You do wonder if he would fight when really pushed. I've said it before when backing him but Li Hang this week is a good shout to go far being at home. He's beaten Higgins before and pushed him to a decider this year. The other shock I can see (potentially) is Honghao again. This time he plays a much better opponent in Mark Williams but again, he's beaten him before and he did it with ease this year. Price is too big

4pts Li Hang to beat J.Higgins 5/2 bet365
2.5pts L.Honghao to beat M.Williams 12/5 bet365

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Both players had the chance to win that. Both was on the table so many times and played like timid mice when they had their oppurtunity. It's a shame Honghao was so awful in the first 4 frames. To come back from 4-0 to what should have been 4-4 was decent but in the end both fail. On the plus side, Higgins looks very tired and Williams isn't in form. Wakelin and Murphy march on and the contest is blown wide with Lisowski, Kyren Wilson, Robertson and Mark Allen all out.

Williams Vs Brecel
Gilbert Vs Saengkham
Vafaei Vs McGill
Perry Vs Trump
Selby Vs Wakelin
Xintong Vs Hawkins
Higgins Vs Maflin
Murphy Vs Selt

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Looking at tomorrows matches the four earlier matches the bet for me is Vafaei. McGill has coasted this far in my opinion. He's beaten Lisowski, Holt and Zifan without a solitary hundred. Vafaei has a hundred in both of his last 2 matches and has won them both with ease. He managed 5 50+ breaks in his 5-3 win over Kyren Wilson. I'll take Vafaei in that one. In the later matches I'm going to back Xintong against Barry Hawkins. Xintong is playing well at the moment and has beaten Barry in their last 2 match-ups. Barry hasn't played a good player yet really.

5.5pts H.Vafaei to beat A.McGill 10/11 bet365
5pts Z.Xintong to beat B.Hawkins 9/5 blacktype

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3 minutes ago, notanotherdonkey said:

Well that is my 2 picks out.Poor show by both guys but onwards and upwards.Well done on H.Vafeai winning today and your pick Fader.Good Luck

I didn't realise at the time (unable to watch any of this, other than the main tables) that Robertson withdrew 3-1 down because of illness. He gets ill alot it seems and isn't able to play through it. Thanks, hoping Wakelin can cause an upset today. I wish I followed Gilbert each-way now as that top half looks weak.

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1/2 today then. Pretty weak from Xington at 4-4 leading 22-0. Also Wakelin should have gone 3-1 up and lost his head at 2-2. Murphy through atleast. Wish I took Maflin over Higgins. He looked likely to go out sooner or later. Maflin a guy i've backed alot in the last few tournaments. He is an underrated player. Final 8 then.

Williams    Vs    Gilbert
Vafaei        Vs    Perry
Selby        Vs    Hawkins
Maflin        Vs    Murphy

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Just the one for me tomorrow and that is Gilbert to beat Mark Williams. I think Williams has coasted this week and this will be his first proper test. Gilbert has won the last couple against Williams and beat him at the World Championships. It's a really big match this one, because the winner would be up against Perry or Vafaei for a place in the final. I'll take Gilbert.

5pts D.Gilbert to beat M.Williams 6/5 bet365

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Gilbert didn't turn up atall this morning. Murphy through against Maflin 5-3 though. Semi-finals look like this tomorrow. Final on Sunday.

M.Williams Vs H.Vafaei (7.30am)
M.Selby Vs S.Murphy (12.30pm)

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I'll leave the Selby Vs Murphy Semi-final and head to the earlier match and I think Mark Williams beats Vafaei with a few frames to spare. We go into the "first to 6" tomorrow. Williams beat Vafaei 6-1 in their only other match and it wouldn't surprise me if he beat him to a similar scale tomorrow. I think the moment may get to him. He certainly isn't used to the latter part of tournaments and Mark is.

5pts M.Williams (-2.5 frames) Vs H.Vafaei 6/5 coral

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On 9/22/2019 at 11:09 PM, Fader said:

This continues early hours. Looking at the outright markets there are a few I'm going to take. Maguire is bottom half. He is with Trump, but has beaten him easily recently and other than Trump, he has a nice route. Top half Murphy would have to beat Higgins,Selby and Robertson but his recent form is too hot to not back him here. Outsider bets on Wakelin and Ning who are both top half and have the quality to trouble the likes of Selby and co.

2pts E/W S.Murphy to win China Championship 18/1 ladbrokes
1pt E/W S.Maguire to win China Championship 50/1 ladbrokes
0.5pts E/W C.Wakelin to win China Championship 250/1 betfair
0.25pts E/W L.Ning to win China Championship 300/1 ladbrokes

Brilliant from Murphy to win the tournament. What a final that was. Williams went from 9-5 to 9-9 and had me worried but Murphy got that all important 19th frame to get the 18/1 shot. I took Murphy in the worlds at 33s before this.

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