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Xtc12

When should I increase my stake.

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I know I've made it much more complicated than it is on the sheet but I'm loathe to change it now as it's a bit of a beast with all the different staking systems!  But you can see how I messed up.  Twice.  Also having to put '13to8' in the cell because Excel so helpfully changes '13/8' to '13 Aug'!!

Anyway, I'm going to create a new thread in Betting Systems and Strategies to continue this as I seem to have hijacked this one - apologies xtc12.

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It helps to tinker around with your Rdata as far as increased stakes are concerned.

There are a couple ,like the Top four Team at evens where I noticed a long winning streak.

There it would be better to increase on a win...maybe increase on first win then just play same amount next bet,increase if win again then play that same amount again on the following bet and so on....

I'm currently trying to find  online leagues where the team log position is displayed next to their matchup fixture.

Edited by Zemside

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5 hours ago, Zemside said:

I'm currently trying to find  online leagues where the team log position is displayed next to their matchup fixture.

I was getting this information from here: https://www.cybet.com.cy/footballbettingcyprus/  I used to convert the PDF files to Excel and then import that into the rdata database.  It became quite time-consuming and boring though!

 

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On 9/6/2019 at 4:12 PM, keef75 said:

I've been away from here for quite a while since stopping working on the rdata site but I've still been following a few things.  I have a system that has, so far, produced 264 selections (horse racing).  It has a strike rate of just under 46% with an average win SP of 1.77 (1.89 on Betfair).  Longest losing run is 9 and the longest winning run is 6.  Calculated potential longest losing run is 13 per 1000 bets based on the strike rate.  I've played with many staking plans and, as I know the system makes good profit to level stakes, I'd like to know which plan would work best in this situation in the long run.

I have the following (all from a starting bank of £1000):

Level stakes (£10)
26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640

Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405

Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758

Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831

1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246

Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909

Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794

The plans that end up the highest obviously have more risk as some stakes reached £200+, especially in the 1-3-2-6 plan.  On the Ratchet Square Root plans the current stakes are £115 and £130 for Normal SP and Betfair SP respectively.  Betfair figures stated above include a 5% commission deduction.

I haven't put any real money on this yet, I've just been following it closely.  The last 2.5 months have been good producing ROIs in excess of 50% for level stakes and a couple of others plans.

Hopefully OP can take something from this but I'd be interested in reading others' comments too.  Cheers.

Have you not thought about using >betconnect as exchange as 0% commission. Have only jsut started using so appreciate dont know the ins and outs of it all but it seems great for reducing any losses

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6 hours ago, davematch1 said:

Have you not thought about using >betconnect as exchange as 0% commission. Have only jsut started using so appreciate dont know the ins and outs of it all but it seems great for reducing any losses

I've not heard of that site before, I've only ever used Betfair but I'll definitely take a look.  Cheers.

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If I could add my two pennies worth I think the answer is never.

If your original stake was the correct level and affordable to begin with and you are winning don't change it.

Take your winnings and spend it on a luxury or something useful and carry on as before.

If you increase your stake you end up trivialising all your earlier work and trust me it usually ends in tears.

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Not sure if it makes a difference, but betfair are now allowing you to choose a plan with different rates of commission.
 

8% - you get certain benefits/promotions etc

5% - slightly less of the above

2% - zero of the above.

 

I'm not interested in promos or free goes at slots or anything. Gone from 5% to 2% which could make a sizeable difference to my profit. Happy days.

 

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