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sammydubs

Non-League Predictions > August 10th

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2 matches to look at now as I think the price will go on both. Sadly both against my teams...

Merstham vs Hornchurch (Isthmian Premier Division) 

Merstham won this fixture 3-0 last season but a lot has changed since then - Merstham have a completely new squad and manager and having watched them in pre season it’s going to take time for them to gel, if at all. Hornchurch haven’t had it all their way in pre season but have pitched themselves against stronger opposition and have done OK. They held Dagenham & Redbridge with some

of Hornchurch key players missing, conceding a last min. goal. 

Favs to win the league with some strong additions to their squad, I would have expected odds on for Hornchurch, especially as I know that with Merstham home advantage is often not an advantage at all!! 

Hornchurch to win 6/5 (Bet365) 

Bromley vs Torquay (National League)

Quick and easy tip...from reports of Tuesday night, Bromley were really good, Torquay were really poor. I know Darran doesn’t fancy Torquay this season and that’s good enough for me to side with Bromley who I read were simply outstanding at times on Tuesday night. 

Bromley to win 6/4 (Bet365)

Wouldn’t put anyone off the double as well!

 

 

Edited by sammydubs

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Having read the reports this morning, I am keen to get any insight people have to Bradford PA - They play Kidderminster on Saturday who are struggling themselves, but 13/10 against a team who have gone 0-5, 0-5 could be a good bet ?! 

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Having struggled a little on the Nap front last season it was good to go 2/2 on that front with Eastbourne winning. It was also good to get the first big priced winner of the season thanks to Aldershot and Guiseley's thrashing of Bradford Park Avenue helped make it a profitable night. 3 of the Step 3 leagues get underway on Saturday to bring us up to 6 leagues and I have 8 bets across them.

Previews to follow

Bromley v Torquay

It was a rude awakening for Torquay fans on Tuesday night as they were hammered 3-0 by Solihull. Gary Johnson called the Torquay performance inept and the worst he has seen since he joined the club. To be fair to the players though they were playing the team who finished 2nd last season and should be a play-off side this and that is a massive step-up from a very poor National League South. This will be another very tough game for them and whilst they will have got a kick up the arse from Gary, this is a good Bromley side who might for me look stronger than Torquay. They had a very comfortable win on Tuesday against Ebbsfleet and whilst this is harder they should be shorter than 6/4 to claim another 3 points.

Notts County v Barnet

Notts County got their first point of the season on Tuesday when drawing with 1-1 with Stockport. It was more proof though that they are struggling to come to terms with football at this level and that a team who signed 6 players 48 hours before the season started are struggling to gel. I wasn't certain of taking them on with Eastleigh or Stockport but I think Barnet are well worth backing. Barnet have 4 points from their first 2 games and have played well in both although the concern is both their goals have come from penalties. They need to take their chances, but I think they will certainly be capable of creating a few here and for me they should be no bigger than 2/1 and probably a bit shorter than that. Barnet for me are a step-up from the two opponents County have faced so far.

Woking v Harrogate

Woking played well in the first half against Aldershot on Tuesday, but they weren't so good in the 2nd half and Aldershot were able to take the derby day victory. I think Woking will struggle this season and I can't understand why Harrogate aren't clear favs for this game. They were involved in a great 2-2 draw with Solihull on day 1 and then were comfortable 3-0 winners at Barrow on Tuesday. Barrow is a tough place to go and it wouldn't be a big surprise if that was their heaviest defeat at home this season. Those two performances suggest Harrogate will be up their again this season and despite Woking's win at Dagenham I still think they will be in a relegation battle. Hopefully Harrogate can make their superior quality pay.

Alfreton v Blyth Spartans

This is a value play for me because Alfreton have been hammered in the betting from the opening prices and Blyth have drifted out to way too big a price. Blyth lost to Gloucester on the opening day of the season and I certainly don't think they will be a play-off contender as they were last season, but then Alfreton don't look like they will be anything special either. They have flattered to deceive for the last two seasons and my initial feeling is they will be no higher than mid-table. This game is currently priced up as if it is against title contenders and relegation fodder which isn't how I have seen it at all. Blyth have also had a week off as their game against Spennymoor was called off and that means they have 90 minutes less in their legs and extra training to get things right ahead of this game.

Bradford Park Avenue v Kidderminster

Just before I started to write the preview for this game it was announced that BPA had sacked their manager. We usually see the odd casualty during August, but for someone to be sacked with less than a week gone of the season is highly unusual. As I wrote in the preview for their game on Tuesday they had to be really bad to lose 5-0 to Curzon and then they went and lost 5-0 again to Guiseley. It's hard to know if they have done the right thing to sack the manager or not. I guess you could give him time to turn it around, but it would seem he has recruited poorly and its going to be hard when the fixtures come so fast in August for someone else to come in and change things quickly. I'm certainly happy to back Kidderminster here. Now Kiddie haven't exactly looked great themselves and I'm not sure I would want to be backing them at 11/8 to win away at anyone else in the league, but this is the right time to be playing BPA. Kiddie have the players to hurt them even if they look a little bit short of play-off contenders at the moment and they look a good bet to win this.

Braintree v Wealdstone

I saw Wealdstone in action on Tuesday night when they lost 1-0 to Dulwich. They will probably consider themselves unlucky to lose as they were very much on top when Dulwich scored the only goal of the game and the continued to see plenty of the ball. The problem was they didn't really test the keeper too much during the game despite some good build up play, although Dulwich looked really solid in defence and that was a big part in them keeping a clean sheet. They both look teams capable of being play-off contenders and both look better teams than they were last season. As I mentioned in my ante-post preview I don't think Braintree will do a great deal this season and they have lost their first two games although to be fair they were tough ones against Bath and Billericay. They actually played well against Braintree going down 3-2, but that was a local derby against the team everyone in the league will want to beat. I think they will suffer a bit of a comedown in this and their squad is very inexperienced this season. They also looked weak in defence and Wealdstone should be able to take full advantage. They are a big price and I make them the Nap's of the day.

Weymouth v Chelmsford 

I was a bit surprised that Chelmsford lost to Concord on Tuesday, but it suggests that like last season they could have issues away from home. Weymouth have put in two really good performances in their first two games back at this level beating Maidstone and drawing at home to Bath. Those suggest they will be a force to be reckoned with in NLS this season and it is hard to understand why Marathon have got them bigger than 2/1. I would have them at around 5/4 myself and they have a real chance of winning this.

Merstham v Hornchurch

Just one bet at Step 3 for me this weekend and although I hope Hornchurch don't win the title I certainly can see them getting their campaign off to a winning start. Merstham lost their manager and most of their squad to Kingstonian over the summer and they really are a shadow of the side who made the play-offs last season. They look likely to be struggling at the wrong end of the table given the strength of their side and Hornchurch ought to be odds on really.

Bromley 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor

Barnet 1pt @ 33/10 with BetVictor

Harrogate 2pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor and Betway

Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 5/1 with Boylesports (19/4 with BetVictor, 9/2 with Betfred)

Kidderminster 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor

Wealdstone 2.5pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor

Weymouth 1pt @ 41/20 with Marathon

Hornchurch 2pts @ 11/8 with Marathon

 

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I also has had a look at taking on Kidderminster at Bradford PA, but having read the Kidderminster forum and local rags, they have their own problems in terms of having to have played half their academy team in the first two weeks due no investment in pre-season...with BPA appointing a new manager I cannot see a shade above evens for an away win as being an attractive price.

All I am taking is 2.25 about Concord to get a home win against a Slough side who have lost their first two without scoring and are missing 8 players. In comparison Concord have won both of theirs...definite value here.

 

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It’s a little annoying they have a new management team but it’s hard to think they are going to have much of an affect on tomorrow’s game. If kiddie can’t win tomorrow they are in serious trouble

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2 hours ago, footy4cast said:

I think that's the whole point...their fans think they are. Kiddie should win, but just not worth it away at 2.00's

You have to be very careful with fans in my view. Very few have a realistic viewpoint on things. Don't forget we are talking about an ex FL club who look like they won't be going for promotion again. I am not surprised their fans are so downbeat at the moment. I think the price now is the right one.

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10 hours ago, Darran said:

You have to be very careful with fans in my view. Very few have a realistic viewpoint on things. Don't forget we are talking about an ex FL club who look like they won't be going for promotion again. I am not surprised their fans are so downbeat at the moment. I think the price now is the right one.

Good point...but very often still more reliable than the usual self serving guff that comes out from official club statements. I think Kiddie will win...just not backable at the price.

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A really good day and great that I could take the knowledge from having watched Wealdstone on Tuesday to make money today. 3/3 winning naps and another big price winner today as well. No rest for the players and no rest for the tipsters at this time of year so back again for the mid week action.

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