Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2019/20

[harry_rag]

Sky Bet again klaxon! Price held for now but best be quick. The +1 handicap is 11/10 again as well.

Scnuthorpe most corners taken v Crewe Alexandra, 0.5pt at 7-4 with Sky Bet.

[monty63]

7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Sky Bet again klaxon! Price held for now but best be quick. The +1 handicap is 11/10 again as well.

Scnuthorpe most corners taken v Crewe Alexandra, 0.5pt at 7-4 with Sky Bet.

if you miss the 7/4 with sky bet  bet365 have the bet at 8/5

[harry_rag]

Game finished 2-2 but a comfortable 9-4 to Scnuthorpe on corners.

13 winners and 2 pushes from 21 bets, 6.825 points up with an ROI of 35.92% to advised stakes, 8.95 points up with an ROI of 42.62% to level stakes.

[harry_rag]

Back with 365 for this week’s selection.

Walsall +1 Asian handicap corners v Crewe, 1pt at evens with 365

Had drifted to 11/10 when I placed my bet.

[harry_rag]

Walsall took an early lead but eventually lost 2-1, being out-cornered 7-1 in the process so a losing week.

13 winners and 2 pushes from 22 bets, 5.825 points up with an ROI of 29.13% to advised stakes, 7.95 points up with an ROI of 36.14% to level stakes.

[harry_rag]

For tomorrow, Stevenage +3.5 Asian handicap corners v Exeter, 1pt at 1.85 with 365.

[harry_rag]

Stevenage lose 2-1 and get trounced 11-4 on corners so a losing bet.

13 winners and 2 pushes from 23 bets, 4.825 points up with an ROI of 22.98% to advised stakes, 6.95 points up with an ROI of 30.22% to level stakes.

[harry_rag]

This week’s bet up the earliest I’ve known it.

 

Tranmere +2 on corners handicap v Rochdale, 1pt at evens with Sky Bet.

[harry_rag]

Game postponed so as you were.

[harry_rag]

Hopefully this week’s selection survives the weather!

Oxford most corners taken v Ipswich, 0.5pt at 2-1 with Sky Bet.

[harry_rag]

With hindsight I'd have preferred another postponement! Never surprising to see your team out cornered when they've won the match. 1-0 to Oxford but 3-7 on corners. That's a 3rd consecutive losing bet after a run of 6 straight winners. Normal service resumed next week hopefully!

13 winners and 2 pushes from 24 bets, 4.325 points up with an ROI of 20.121% to advised stakes, 5.95 points up with an ROI of 24.79% to level stakes.

[harry_rag]

For this week we have Mansfield most corners taken v Swindon, 0.5pt at 7-4 with Sky Bet.

[harry_rag]

Another postponed game so no update required this week.

[harry_rag]

This week we have:

Tranmere +3 corners v Accrington, 1pt at 10-11 with Sky Bet.

[harry_rag]

Tranmere win the game 2-1 and also manage to draw the corner match-up 5-5 so a comfortable winner with the start.

14 winners and 2 pushes from 25 bets, 5.23 points up with an ROI of 23.26% to advised stakes, 6.86 points up with an ROI of 27.44% to level stakes.

[harry_rag]

Just to confirm, no bet this week and, no doubt, for the foreseeable.

[harry_rag]

First selection, as far as I’m aware, since lockdown began.

Under 6.5 Asian total cards in Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, 0.5pt at 1.75 with 365.

[harry_rag]

Just the 3 yellow cards so a comfortable winner to get us back underway.

15 winners and 2 pushes from 26 bets, 5.61 points up with an ROI of 24.39% to advised stakes, 7.61 points up with an ROI of 29.27% to level stakes.

[froment]

On 6/27/2020 at 11:08 AM, harry_rag said:

First selection, as far as I’m aware, since lockdown began.

Under 6.5 Asian total cards in Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, 0.5pt at 1.75 with 365.

Can you tell me, please, how does it come Asian on 6.5 line? I thought Asian always had push option, and there's no push with 6.5 line, it's either won or lost, no push, correct?

[harry_rag]

Asian lines have a push option where the line involves a whole number but there’s no push on a 1.5 line in terms of match result.

365 quote an Asian line and a straight over/under line. The latter will always involve a half point line so that the push isn’t a runner while the former will sometimes be a whole number line where a push is possible.

For this game the line was 6.5 in both markets but, as is always the case with 365, the price was slightly better in the AH market (1.75 v 8/11).

Where stakes are limited, it’s likely a lower limit will apply to the AH line than the straight over/under. Pretty much every week I find myself having to top up on the over/under line to get anything like a worthwhile stake on.

[harry_rag]

Kev’s having it large this week! 

Lecce to take most corners v Sassuolo, 0.5pt at 15-2 BoyleSports.

[dbianchin]

hi, mate, i followed your forum posts for years. Now i'm trying to understand how Kevin works to find the best odds for us. I would just like to ask where I can read these tips from Kevin himself. That last one, for example, I couldn't find on the racingpost.

Thanks for the effort, cheers from Brazil

[harry_rag]

His Saturday column is available from around 8:00 on a Friday night. Usually considers a general topic then gives his bet of the week with detailed reasoning.

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/premier-league/kevin-pullein-how-much-will-winning-the-title-affect-liverpool/440591

[harry_rag]

No joy this week as Lecce lose the game 4-2 and draw the corner count 4-4.

15 winners and 2 pushes from 27 bets, 5.11 points up with an ROI of 21.74% to advised stakes, 6.61 points up with an ROI of 24.48% to level stakes.

[harry_rag]

Another corners bet with Boyles this week.

Blackburn to take most corners v West Brom, 0.5pt at 23-10 with Boyles.

[harry_rag]

It's 21/10 with 888 if that helps, sub 2/1 elsewhere.

[harry_rag]

The game finished 1-1 but West Brom gained 7 corners to Blackburn's 3 so a losing bet.

15 winners and 2 pushes from 28 bets, 4.61 points up with an ROI of 19.21% to advised stakes, 5.61 points up with an ROI of 20.03% to level stakes.

[harry_rag]

It would appear to be a "no bet" week this week.

[harry_rag]

On 7/17/2020 at 8:40 PM, harry_rag said:

It would appear to be a "no bet" week this week.

Ditto. We may well be done for the season.

[harry_rag]

On 7/13/2020 at 11:23 AM, harry_rag said:

15 winners and 2 pushes from 28 bets, 4.61 points up with an ROI of 19.21% to advised stakes, 5.61 points up with an ROI of 20.03% to level stakes.

Ok, I'm calling time on the 19/20 season on the basis that the next bet Kev posts will relate to the 20/21 season, so the above is the final tally for the season. It's fair to say that, given the limits applied by the firms he tends to favour, I don't win a huge amount following these selections. Hopefully some of you manage to do a bit better. I would buy him a drink though, for his thoughts on the last day of the Premier League season. His comments about teams in the position of Villa, Watford and Bournemouth getting 59% of the corners flagged a very nice "most corners" trixie!

Overall position now looks like this (going back to the 2013/14 season).

241 bets showing a level stakes profit of 57.82 points with an ROI of 23.99%. This is the fourth season I've recorded to advised stakes, which show 132 bets, 31.78 points profit and ROI of 27.63%.

The level stakes ROI has been (earliest to latest) 27.03%, 25.91%, 13.04%, 21.84%, 41.06%, 19.75% and 20.04%.