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The Ashes 2019


Fader
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The summer of cricket continues on Thursday as we get The Ashes underway. After winning the World Cup, England looked dreadful against Ireland but then I think that was expected as the team was alot different and to be fair it just didn't matter. I think the intensity changes here and they will "switch back on"

England showed weakness in their top order and if they cannot bat freely against the likes of Murtagh then you wonder how they will do against somebody like Starc who bowls "alittle bit faster" shall we say.

The truth of the matter though with these ashes series is that it's "most of the time" won on the home soil. Infact 8 of the last 9 were won by the home team. Australia struggle with the moving ball and if you get past their first 3 they look weak. You would have to say England have a stronger line-up after the top order.

I think England will win this series. I can't see any draws atall unless it p*sses it down all day for a couple of days. This will very much be a bowlers series. Is that because of how good the bowlers are or how poor the batsman are? hmm...

I'll take England for the win and also a sneaky bet on the outcome score. As I say, I don't see a draw here so for me, it's either 4-1 England or 3-2 England. I'm also going to take a batsman for England that is NOT top order and is NOT Root (with this recent form) I think everything points to Stokes. After his fantastic performance in the final and top scoring there (also tipped) I'm sticking with him being our man of the tournament.

5.5pts England to win The Ashes 10/11 bet365
2pts B.Stokes top England batsman 15/2 betway
1pt England to win 3-2 7/1 betfair
1pt England to win 4-1 9/1 coral
1pt B.Stokes (Player of the series) 10/1 unibet
0.5pts M.Wade top Australia batsman 33/1 ladbrokes

 

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I agree that it's unlikely there'll be any draws unles the weather intervenes (which is quite likely it will)

But I'm wondering if waiting might be a good idea if you want to back England 

If England bat first they're likely to be 58-4 at lunch and the odds on England will have rocketed

If the Aussies bat first bet they'll be 80-1 at lunch and the odds on England will have rocketed

In other words it looks like Australia are always going to be ahead after the first session so if you want to back England wait until lunch

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The 2nd test gets underway tomorrow but the weather report does it no favours atall. So much so that now most places are offering the draw at odds-on. I do think that there is abit of value on England. I think they'll perform alot better in this next test. It's a huge match, as a loss pretty much finishes any chance of getting the Ashes. We'd need 3 in a row and I'm not sure we have that kind of consistency. 

But the bet I like more is Woakes top England bowler. Woakes was one of a couple of players to come out of the 1st test with any kind of positivity. Playing on his home ground, you'd of have certainly had him as a man of the match (for England atleast). I think he will bring that form to Lords. I also think he could have another MOTM performance in him and so I'll take that too, at small stakes ofcourse.

2pts C.Woakes top england bowler 11/4 boylesports
1pt C.Woakes MOTM 14/1 ladbrokes

 

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The 3rd test gets underway tomorrow and England must feel this is the best chance for a win and to square the innings up with 2 to play. No Smith really helps England as he has had strong showings throughout.

I fancy England here but the price has gone from Evens to 4/6 after the news of Smith not playing came out.

I'll instead look at top batsman for Australia, as there is abit of value now that Smith isn't there. I like the look of Labaschagne and Head but I must take one because I want a little outsider on Wade too. Head has the better batting record and I think Archer can do some damage tomorrow so I'l stick to Head and Wade.

I'm also having a punt on Archer as Man Of The Match. We all know the damage he can do and with the pressure building without Smith, who knows what kind of score we could be looking at on Day 1, Lunch.

2pts T.Head top Australia Batsman 11/2 betfred
1pt J.Archer MOTM 9/1 bet365

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I've got a 100% record on cricket ........... 2 bets, 2 wins

In both cases I bet in play after the first innings

One was the recent world cup game England against Pakistan when Pakistan batted first and scored around 340 ........ yet were still odds against at the bookies which seemed crazy. So I backed Pakistan and won

Second bet was the first Test after the Aussie tail put on about 160 for the last two wickets ....... I backed Australia at that point at odds against and Australia won even though England got a big first innings lead

So ....... with cricket I think I'm more inclined to see how the game goes before backing anything. As the game situation can change so quickly there's always opportunity to hedge during the game if you want to

For the 3rd Test I'd consider backing Australia if they bowl first and are odds against as it seems inevitable that England will lose early wickets and England might be odds against later on the first day

Seems unpatriotic but I'm always more likely to bet against England in a two horse race because I'm a pessimist as to England's chances and I reckon betting on England is probably poor value because most English punters will probably bet on England and skew the odds.

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nice little Archer wicket before the rain comes back. Weather looks OK after lunch and with Warner being out-of-form it's surely Englands best chance of a win.

 

* What a day for Archer. 6 wickets! brilliant day for England. *

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  • 2 weeks later...

4th test at Old Trafford gets started today. It's funny how this morning on the radio I've heard that there is "nothing in this" and "you can't separate the teams" well that may be so on a scoreline perspective but Australia have been the better team by far in my opinion and if it wasn't for Stokes performing miracles you'd have to say that there would be a different perspective on this ashes. 

Denly looks set to open for England and Roy will be moving down the order. Woakes is out for Overton. Smith is back for Khajawa and Starc comes in for Siddle.

For me, the price on Australia is too big and I'll take that and hope it doesn't come in. Would love to see England win this or atleast get a draw here (rain likely to threaten) bit for me Australia look the most likely

4pts Australia to beat England  bet365

 

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Final test this morning then. Bit of a dead-rubber for most but once again Australia are a decent price to win. I'll take the evens on Australia here. I honestly feel like we've been lucky to be 2-1 down. We've only won one match and that was all down to Stokes. If the ashes were due to start again in a month, I'd probably be on small stakes 5-0 Australia, put it that way.

I'm also going to try a little punt on Curran coming in and doing well. Curran for top batsman

5pts Australia to beat England evens bet365
1pt S.Curran top england batsman 16/1 ladbrokes

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On 7/30/2019 at 9:52 AM, Fader said:

The summer of cricket continues on Thursday as we get The Ashes underway. After winning the World Cup, England looked dreadful against Ireland but then I think that was expected as the team was alot different and to be fair it just didn't matter. I think the intensity changes here and they will "switch back on"

England showed weakness in their top order and if they cannot bat freely against the likes of Murtagh then you wonder how they will do against somebody like Starc who bowls "alittle bit faster" shall we say.

The truth of the matter though with these ashes series is that it's "most of the time" won on the home soil. Infact 8 of the last 9 were won by the home team. Australia struggle with the moving ball and if you get past their first 3 they look weak. You would have to say England have a stronger line-up after the top order.

I think England will win this series. I can't see any draws atall unless it p*sses it down all day for a couple of days. This will very much be a bowlers series. Is that because of how good the bowlers are or how poor the batsman are? hmm...

I'll take England for the win and also a sneaky bet on the outcome score. As I say, I don't see a draw here so for me, it's either 4-1 England or 3-2 England. I'm also going to take a batsman for England that is NOT top order and is NOT Root (with this recent form) I think everything points to Stokes. After his fantastic performance in the final and top scoring there (also tipped) I'm sticking with him being our man of the tournament.

5.5pts England to win The Ashes 10/11 bet365
2pts B.Stokes top England batsman 15/2 betway
1pt England to win 3-2 7/1 betfair
1pt England to win 4-1 9/1 coral
1pt B.Stokes (Player of the series) 10/1 unibet
0.5pts M.Wade top Australia batsman 33/1 ladbrokes

 

Ben Stokes top batsman. I can't believe before the final innings Archer was 3 wickets ahead of Broad and ofcourse Broad gets 4 wickets. Harsh but glad Stokes come in

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