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BillyHills

Racing Chat - Sunday July 21st

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It is a busy day on Sunday with 3 races catching my eye at Newton Abbot. I'm glad Midnight Folie was an unbackable price on Thursday as I would have put her up otherwise. That defeat though means we are getting 15/8 about a horse who should be favourite. She had to do too much to soon with the battle for the lead with the 3rd and it meant she had little left on the run in to fend off the winner. She was backed heavily into 1/4 so it was clearly expected she would go in again and this race should be much more to her liking. Granted it was her smallest winning margin, but I thought her win over course and distance was her most impressive of the 3 and she should be able to get a soft lead here. What is also in her favour is it looks like she only has two viable rivals both of whom are unproven over this trip. Granted Dan Skelton knows what he is doing, but on paper it seems a strange move to run Chasma over this far. If he gets well backed though I would be worried as there winners do tend to be well backed. Chequered View seems like a more logical candidate for stepping up to this trip and he should benefit from a run over 2m at Southwell a month ago. I still think Midnight Folie is well handicapped though. I said off 85 she had at least 30lbs in hand so based on that she has 10lbs still plus her jockey takes off 7lbs.

 

In the 5.00 I really like Ballyknock Cloud. You might remember I put him up as being well handicapped ahead of his return to rules. He was quite well backed and as all good e/w bets do ended up finishing 4th. That doesn't tell the whole story though as he got badly hampered at a crucial stage and it put him on the back foot, before he was able to stay on again. That was a class 4 like this but that was a 0-115 whereas this is a 0-105 so it is a weaker contest. Granted better luck in running I would be amazed if he doesn't go close in a race like this.

 

Damut I'm Out plugged on for 3rd in the race Hidden Charmer just got beat in at the beginning of the month. He was a long way behind Hidden Charmer and he just couldn't go fast enough to catch the 1st 2 up, but he was only beaten just over 3L and this slightly longer trip will help. I also can't see anything being capable of what Hidden Charmer did that night in this so I am having a saver on him.

 

Pointed And Sharp isn't without a chance and Isle Road has been well backed after winning over hurdles here last week. He's up to a new high handicap mark of 100, but for a 10yo he's relatively unexposed so I wouldn't discount him either. I put up This Breac as a small bet against Midnight Folie here last month and he helped make the running before dropping out and being well beaten. Quite how the handicapper only dropped him a lb after that I don't know. The shorter trip might actually help him although he's never run over it and we know Bryony is good on front runners. I might have to have a very small just in case bet given he's 28/1, but I think he needs to probably run in a lesser grade and ultimately it is hard to see him being up to beating Ballyknock Cloud or Damut Im Out let alone the other two I have mentioned.

 

I have to back Skinflint again in the last. He has now bumped into 2 well handicapped horses. First off it was Midnight Folie here over fences and then Brave Helios over hurdles at Worcester. They were miles clear of the rest on both occasions and he really deserves to get his head in front and is clearly well handicapped. Alanjou is probably the biggest danger having won on both starts for Barry Brennan. They were weak races he won and he is up 10lbs, but he has been rated higher in the past so he could still be well handicapped as well. Hopefully though Skinflint can get the better of him and the rest.

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