Announcements
*** New Last Man Standing Competition - Win up to £1500 Annually - See Competitions Forum ***
Sign in to follow this  
Fader

World Matchplay 2019

Recommended Posts

After a nice little 10/1 winner with Peter Wright, let's see if we can get another big priced winner.

The World Matchplay gets started tomorrow night. Never have we such open tournaments really as at similar times the likes of MVG, Anderson, Cross, Wade and Gurney are all looking very beatable. It means that value is out there

I'm going to take a few in this event just based on that fact. In the top half where alot of the "big names" are I'll be taking Adrian Lewis, De Zwaan and Smith. Main 2 bets here will be Smith and Lewis. Lewis isn't seen around the circuit asmuch nowadays, but he has a good record here. Final back in 2013. QF 2014 and a couple of SF 2016 and 2017. His main problem is the doubling so if that comes good he will be in a good place. His average in this event since 2013 is just under 100 and last year he went out in Round 2 with a 103.56 average.

Bottom half, I'll be taking Peter Wright to continue the good form that has seen a few tournament wins. Along with Ian White and an outside punt on Keegan Brown. This half of the draw is alot weaker.

2pts E/W P.Wright to win The Matchplay 12/1 Betvictor
2pts E/W M.Smith to win The Matchplay 28/1 sportingbet
1pt E/W I.White to win The Matchplay 33/1 betfair
1pt E/W A.Lewis to win The Matchplay 80/1 Ladbrokes
0.5pts E/W De Zwaan to win The Matchplay 80/1 ladbrokes
0.5pts E/W K.Brown to win The Matchplay 200/1 betvictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few close matches on tonight with the bookies and potential value in them for me. We start with Keegan Brown facing up against Clayton. Clayton has a good head-to-head record against Brown, but Brown has the better form coming into this and I like his chances. He's finally getting back to the form of 2016 where he was in the worlds top 40. He mad the Czech Open Semi-final in June and a couple more semi-finals in March. Clayton had a good start to the season, winning the PC10 in Barnsley in April but recently he's been out of sorts.

Finally, I'm going to take Ricky Evans to give Gurney a test. Gurney is looking bang out of sorts at the moment. They have actually already played eachother twice this year. Gurney won in March 8-6 when he won the German Championships but prior to that in Febuary, Evans beat him in Barnsley. Evans went on to get to the final of that event also. He is playing well and Gurney quite frankly isn't. His recent averages haven't even hit the 90s

5pts K.Brown to beat J.Clayton 11/10 bet365
2.5pts R.Evans to beat D.Gurney 9/5 ladbrokes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keegan Brown wins and performs really well I thought. Evans gave Gurney a test but lost in the end. Gurney looked decent and will face Keegan in the next round.

We get into the last 16 tonight and we have 4 matches tonight. First of all Michael Smith faces Max Hopp. This could be a banana skin for Smith and Hopp was somebody I was looking at for the quarter but I took the plunge on Smith. You would have to say he is the better player and more consistent but Hopp is a dangerous one and it's enough for me to leave this match alone and keep my Smith bet. In all fairness Smith looked very good in beating the dangerous Hughes.

Next up James Wade takes on Mensur Suljovic. These two are not the best of friends and Wade has always struggled against playing Mensur. The slowness in Mensur's game really puts him off. Wade beat Mensur 6-3 at the Austrian Open in May but prior to that, Mensur was on a 4 out of 5 win streak against "The Machine". Wade should not even be here, as my tip for the tournmaent, De Zwaan had 5 match-darts against him and bottled it. Mensur thrashed Wattimena 10-1. Both players had a similar average in the last round (96.16 vs 96.76) I'm going to take the finalist from last year, Mensur. I think he plays well here and I still think he has abit of a curse on Wade.

Next up we have reigning champion Gary Anderson taking on Merv King. King performed really well against Aspinall and had a ton average whilst Gary Anderson only scored 93 in his average whilst beating Noppert. It's hard to know what to go on with that, as maybe he would raise his game when needed. Anderson looks alittle bit rusty still though and he says that himself. I think King is genuine value here and more so he has won the last 2 head-2-heads against Gary.

Finally we have MVG against Durrant. Durrant won the only h2h between these two this year and I'm going to take a gamble on him doing the same again here. Van Gerwen hit just 93 in his average when he beat Beaton, whilst Durrant looked composed and assured in the beating of Lewis. Durrant hit a 101 average in that match. The value is surely with Glen.

5pts M.Suljovic to beat J.Wade 11/10 bet365
4pts M.King to beat G.Anderson 11/4 betfred
5pts G.Durrant to beat Van Gerwen 23/10 boylesports

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Fader said:

Keegan Brown wins and performs really well I thought. Evans gave Gurney a test but lost in the end. Gurney looked decent and will face Keegan in the next round.

We get into the last 16 tonight and we have 4 matches tonight. First of all Michael Smith faces Max Hopp. This could be a banana skin for Smith and Hopp was somebody I was looking at for the quarter but I took the plunge on Smith. You would have to say he is the better player and more consistent but Hopp is a dangerous one and it's enough for me to leave this match alone and keep my Smith bet. In all fairness Smith looked very good in beating the dangerous Hughes.

Next up James Wade takes on Mensur Suljovic. These two are not the best of friends and Wade has always struggled against playing Mensur. The slowness in Mensur's game really puts him off. Wade beat Mensur 6-3 at the Austrian Open in May but prior to that, Mensur was on a 4 out of 5 win streak against "The Machine". Wade should not even be here, as my tip for the tournmaent, De Zwaan had 5 match-darts against him and bottled it. Mensur thrashed Wattimena 10-1. Both players had a similar average in the last round (96.16 vs 96.76) I'm going to take the finalist from last year, Mensur. I think he plays well here and I still think he has abit of a curse on Wade.

Next up we have reigning champion Gary Anderson taking on Merv King. King performed really well against Aspinall and had a ton average whilst Gary Anderson only scored 93 in his average whilst beating Noppert. It's hard to know what to go on with that, as maybe he would raise his game when needed. Anderson looks alittle bit rusty still though and he says that himself. I think King is genuine value here and more so he has won the last 2 head-2-heads against Gary.

Finally we have MVG against Durrant. Durrant won the only h2h between these two this year and I'm going to take a gamble on him doing the same again here. Van Gerwen hit just 93 in his average when he beat Beaton, whilst Durrant looked composed and assured in the beating of Lewis. Durrant hit a 101 average in that match. The value is surely with Glen.

5pts M.Suljovic to beat J.Wade 11/10 bet365
4pts M.King to beat G.Anderson 11/4 betfred
5pts G.Durrant to beat Van Gerwen 23/10 boylesports

 

Close to a clean sweep :clap

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, Mensur is a hard player to follow. So frustrating. In the lead multiple times and then back into the 5s. Opens up the tournament nicely. King is rolling back the years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not alot I like tonight, so I'm going to take a boosted treble with Betfair.

The first game of the night is Keegan Brown taking on Gurney. If you watched the first 5 legs of Gurneys win you'd say he was playing brilliant but if you watched the last 5 he looked distinctly average. I like the chances of Brown testing him but enough to bet on it. I have Brown as a big price outsider so that's enough for me.

The treble is in the final 3 matches. Cross/White/Wright

Ian White takes on Bunting. White has been in form for a while now albeit alot of that form was on the European Tour. Rob Cross then takes on Ratajski and for me they are both in a different class and Cross is actually playing really well to be honest. Finally outright pick Peter Wright takes on Whitlock. Whitlock had his arm taped up in the last match and looked abit dodgy at times. I just think the consistency of Wright wins there.

4pts I.White/R.Cross/P.Wright all to win - 7/4 Betfair

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ugh, let down by White (who was 9-5 up in a first to 11)

Into the Quarter-finals then. 2 matches tonight. First to 16 now.

We kick-off with Michael Smith taking on Merv King. Got to say I'm alittle bit worried for my Smith bet. King is playing really well and handling the heat well too. H2H shows that King has won more between the two, albeit the only big match was won by Smith at the Worlds. Also most of the wins for King were a long time ago. I'm going to leave the match outcome of this one but I think deep down I expect Smith to win it.

Next up we have MVG slayer, Durrant against "9-lifes" Wade. I'm not sure how Wade is still here but in my opinion he is playing pretty pony. I expect Durrant to beat him. Wade will normally beat players who double really bad. Durrant is doubling well. He's doing everything well at the moment and apart from Peter Wright and perhaps at times Cross, he looks the standout player here.

I'll also take a little betfair boost for the night.

5.5pts G.Durrant to beat J.Wade 8/11 ladbrokes
2pts Smith & Durrant both to win AND have most 180s 9/2 betfair

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/25/2019 at 2:26 PM, Fader said:

Ugh, let down by White (who was 9-5 up in a first to 11)

Into the Quarter-finals then. 2 matches tonight. First to 16 now.

We kick-off with Michael Smith taking on Merv King. Got to say I'm alittle bit worried for my Smith bet. King is playing really well and handling the heat well too. H2H shows that King has won more between the two, albeit the only big match was won by Smith at the Worlds. Also most of the wins for King were a long time ago. I'm going to leave the match outcome of this one but I think deep down I expect Smith to win it.

Next up we have MVG slayer, Durrant against "9-lifes" Wade. I'm not sure how Wade is still here but in my opinion he is playing pretty pony. I expect Durrant to beat him. Wade will normally beat players who double really bad. Durrant is doubling well. He's doing everything well at the moment and apart from Peter Wright and perhaps at times Cross, he looks the standout player here.

I'll also take a little betfair boost for the night.

5.5pts G.Durrant to beat J.Wade 8/11 ladbrokes
2pts Smith & Durrant both to win AND have most 180s 9/2 betfair

 

both win. Nice price for the double. Nothing I liked yesterday 

Into the Semi-finals tonight. Rob Cross Vs Gurney is first up. Rob Cross is playing really well right now. His average across the 3 matches here so far is over 100. Everything points to him making the final, but Gurney is looking very calm at the moment and playing some good stuff. His average is at 97.23, but he beat Peter Wright in the Quarter-finals and Wright averaged 104.57 so he's picking his timing very well. H2H shows that they have played 4 times already this year and Rob Cross has won 3. I don't see too much value in the match but I'm tempted by Cross on the handicap.

Next up we have Glen Durrant against Michael Smith. Smith started really poorly in the Quarter-finals and Durrant done the same so this match could be a close one with abit of nerves in there. I will hope to get Smith into the final here and get abit of a payday as I tipped him up pre-tournament each-way. With that in mind, and the fact I'm surprised that Smith is the underdog, I'll take him here

5pts M.Smith to beat G.Durrant 6/5 boylesports

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Smith gets a 14/1 placed come in. Kind of bottled it alittle bit in a major final again but happy to get a good return on the tournament overall atleast. Cross as solid as ever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this