Racing Chat - Sunday July 14th

[BillyHills]

4 meetings - pretty poor to be honest

Irish raiders can be followed at Perth again!

Nap: 5.20 Str: Regulation 9/4
Hopefully will jump as well as he did here last time. Front runner, course suits.

EW bet: 3.00 Str: Canny Tom 7/1
Steadily coming into form, could go well.

 

[richard-westwood]

345 fairy 

Silk cravat   +4 

Hey pretty +3 

Forza libranno +1 

Only these three with positive figures but ill take top 2 

Silk cravat 10ptsxwin 5/1 willh

Hey pretty 5pts win 10/1 888

 

[Darran]

The 4.10 at Stratford feature's two horses I put up last time in Shimla Dawn and Robin Des People. The latter was a non-runner and so he is worth backing again here. Just to remind people why I think he is worth backing, he has had a wind op since his run at Bangor in May (his first for Fergal) and he was only just beaten despite the fact he was 6th. He won over 2m1f here on last year's Hunter Chase night and the way he stayed on that night suggests this trip will be ideal for him round here. I think he is on a fair handicap mark as well. Bet365 are 4/1 yet he is 9/4 fav with Betfair and Paddy Power and I think they are correct in putting him in as the market leader.

 

Shimla Dawn was well beaten at Hexham in the end and in some ways the handicapper ought to have dropped him more than 2lbs, but I still think he is well handicapped. He was pestered for the lead at Hexham and he looks on paper like he will get an easier lead here and Stratford is a track that suits front runners. He is now 12/1 and at that price he is well worth taking a chance on as if he gets that easy lead he might not come back to them. 

 

The only horse I am concerned about is Arthur's Sixpence who won a point last year before finishing 2nd in a Restricted to Mistress Massini who won a couple of handicaps in January albeit off a lower mark than this. However he is unexposed and ran well in a lower grade last time in his first run over fences under rules. If he builds on that he will be a danger.

 

In the 5.20 Hidden Charmer is back at Stratford and it is no surprise to see him drop down in trip again after what happened a couple of weeks ago. The issue this time is the presence of Regulation who also likes to get on with it. They obviously could set it up for a finisher like Atlantic Storm which is what happened to Regulation last time, but I actually think they might end up having the race between themselves. Bryony Frost and Richard Johnson are sensible jockey's and I can't see either of them getting into a strong pace battle early on. With Johnson riding it does on paper mean Hidden Charmer is 10lbs higher than he was the last day, but obviously Johnson is worth more than Shane Quinlan's 7lbs so I'm not worried about that. This isn't a strong race for the grade and I am happy to back Hidden Charmer at 11/4.

 

At Perth Play The Ace is worth backing in the 5.00. I put him up two starts ago at Stratford as I thought the Cartmel run behind Carter McKay was better than it looked on paper and he seemed to be running himself into form. That didn't surprise me as I thought the Bowen's may have been using Hunter Chases' to get his mark down. He was well beaten in the end at Stratford, but he was much better at Cartmel in a stronger race than this last time and although you can give all the field some sort of chance I think he can come out on top.

[kroni]

some nice races Longchamp later today, in the 6:10 Holdthasigreen looks to have a good chance, very consistant apart from lto but can forgive that run, likes to race prominent and doesnt seem much other pace in the race so could be hard to get past.

5/1 looks fair price at betfair