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BillyHills

Racing Chat - Friday July 12th

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Some top meetings on Friday and very competitive racing! Good luck!
 

550 Chester: Redarna 4/1 Hills

Thought this one ran well enough last time at Carlisle although he only finished 5th. Had been in top form prior to that and thsi race looks a fair bit weaker. Decent jocky on top and a bet to nothing for those EW thieves.

830 Chester: Bowson Fred 11/2 Bet365

Decent draw, been running pretty well without winning, this looks a weaker race and should be able to sit in behind the pace before striking in the home straight, another solid EW bet.

:ok

 

 

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Following up on the frequency of beaten odds on shots in maiden races.

This year we are seeing a 5% drop on average of winners (below Evens) in the 2yo/3yo maiden races
In the last three of years there have been between 59 and 62% winners , this year we are running at 55%
53 winners from 96 odds on favourites, making them ones to avoid.

:ok

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The first race at Ffos Las is stronger than the one Bletchley Castle won at Southwell, but he is dropping down in trip which is crucial as I think he would struggle to win over 3m in this grade. It isn't certain he will get an easy lead here, but then he didn't make all the running at Southwell and it certainly won't be like Stratford where he got hindered by the standing start in a big field round a tight track. As his owner mentioned in the interview after the win his jumping seems to be improving with practice and there hasn't been a sign of him making the sort of blunder that he made at Huntingdon in the two rules runs since. That means I think he is improving and I think he's got a decent chance of being up to winning in this higher grade. Drunraven Bowl winner Pink Eyed Pedro has been backed into favouritism at the time of writing this after he won a novice hurdle at Worcester on Monday. I do think he is the main danger and I have had a saver on him at 9/4, but the nagging thing in the back of my mind is the fact he couldn't win a handicap off a much lower mark last year. He was also 4th over hurdles here two starts back off a 5lbs lower mark. That novice hurdle on Monday took little winning after the odds on favourite ran way below par so I don't think he achieved an awful lot. I do think the Chepstow win showed that he is an improved horse though as he beat the right horse easily that night so he could be up to winning off this mark, but I would have the two of them the other way round in the betting.

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14 hours ago, BillyHills said:

53 winners from 96 odds on favourites, making them ones to avoid.

I keep promising myself I'm going to devise a "lay" system around odds-on shots (depending on actual price, certain tracks, type of race, etc).

BH's 53wins from 96 in all 2/3yo maidens would likely be a reasonable profit layed blind.

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2 hours ago, Snoopdog said:

I keep promising myself I'm going to devise a "lay" system around odds-on shots (depending on actual price, certain tracks, type of race, etc).

BH's 53wins from 96 in all 2/3yo maidens would likely be a reasonable profit layed blind.

I think it may be worth pursuing but it could be something to do with the time of year, the early 2yo's have had there time and now we are seeing better animals making their debuts.

I do think once a 2yo makes the frame on debut they are automatically made very short by the bookies next time out, very poor value. Punters think they are bound to improve for a run but they could have been ready first time out and therefore are unlikely to progress much further. Breeze Up's and Barrier Trial horses are guilty of this, they are fit first time up and will often only then improve for a step up in trip.

We get very little info on Barrier Trials by the way.

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The pointers/hunter chasers going back into handicaps is proving very profitable again this summer. Would have been nice had they finished the other way round but profit is profit at the end of the day.

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