US Open 2019

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter yes sorry about that but I haven't felt very optimistic about my own bets last two weeks. I carefully wrote that Brayden Schnur could beat JC Aragone. And the last accumulator involved one football match and Nadal -7.5 games vs Diego Schwartzman so I didn't think that the specific acca belonged in here.

[four-leaf]

Brayden Schnur to beat Marcos Giron at 2.45 with Unibet

Brayden deserves more credit than he gets in his price in this match. Bookies doesn't give him enough chance to win this. Brayden has played well enough this season to get into top 100. Marcos played well until april this season but since then he's been more like invisible. Brayden knocked Marcos out in Knoxville challenger 2017 in straight sets and if he's up to his usual standard where he's been this tournament I think he can win this match.

[mdlp]

I took Andreescu at +250 last night on 5 dimes.  Best bet I've seen in a while.  I can see Serena coming out sluggish and dropping first set quickly.  Bianca will get this and the line still looks good at around +230-240 this morning.

 

GL!

[neilovan]

Medvedev v Dimitrov

For me this match is a total no contest. Gregor has a terrible match-up here. A clash of very similar styles.

Medvedev has more than enough to beat him at his own game, and has had  2 days off, to recover from his slight thigh strain. I don't think the win over Federer was spectacular for Gregor. Fed is 38 years old, so he was quite likely to run outta gas in  the latter part of the 4th and 5th set. 

Look, at this level, players are unbelievably good ... every player can hit the ball. So the game boils down to who makes the right decisions at the right time, and who plays the big points better. In my opinion, Gregor makes bad choices at the worst possible time, while Medvedev does the opposite. Gregor is a great player, but there is some subconcious barrier that stops him from going to the highest level. Medvedev has amazing court craft. He understands what to do and when to do it. You can't teach this stuff. At this stage a player either has it, or doesn't.  It's like a top striker in soccer. He knows, without looking where the goalkeeper is, and what he has to do to score. 

So how to make money here ? 1st set is critical. I think if Medvedev wins it, he wins very easily in 3.  

For me taking Medvedev at 4 to 10 is not to good. Maybe the best bet is to essentially lay the match going to 5 sets, by just betting total sets 3 and 4 for an equal stake.

I see a 1 sided bashing here.

Nadal v Berrittini

Never seen Nadal play this well. He is crushing the ball, with an intensity that is almost inhuman. I would be going under 31.5 total games here, in what should be a blow out. I just don't think Berrittini will get those easy service holds, and could get demolished here.

Edited September 6, 2019 by neilovan

[cluelessG]

Just realized odds for Andreescu to win against Serena were 2.59 a month ago in Toronto. Huge difference.

Edited September 7, 2019 by cluelessG

[neilovan]

Andreescu has just had the most amazing breakout year. If memory serves me correctly, it started before the Aussie open in Auckland, where a couple of freaky results stood out for me. In the round of 16 she beat the #1 seed (Wozniacki  6-4 6-4). In the next match she showed me the mindset of a future star.

She played Venus WIlliams and lost the 1st set 6-7. Most players on the woman's tour (and quite a few in the mens) fold up in the second after a close, emotionally and physically invested 1st set. This kid took WIlliams to pieces winning 6-7 6-1 6-3.  It was an eye opener. A ridiculous break out season follows, with wins at Indian Wells and in Toronto.

The seasons record is ridiculously good, winning 34 of 39 matches (87%). This is after stepping up from ITF with a win percentage of 73%.  Come on, get real, stepping up 2 divisions, she starts spanking good players.

So, can she beat Serena?  I don't think Serena can intimidate her with power, but the trick for Andreescu is to keep it close in the 1st set.  Keep Serena on the court, and her possibilities increase as the match goes on. Two simple tactics will really help her. Make Serena move  ... so don't give her a stable platform to crank the ball. SO more balls down the sides, and get Serena moving forward. In my opinion the woman's game is very 1 dimensional. They hate volleying, and most are baseline hitting machines.  

Odds of 3.3 for the Andreescu win are not that brilliant, but they suggest no easy ride for Serena here. I think a close match is on the cards, and would rather go 3 sets at better than odds of 2.6

 

[DrO]

In case anyone wonders what I did with the pick - i did nothing. Literally nothing. I just sat there and watched the match. And I made more than a nice profit in the end. 

[notanotherdonkey]

On 8/28/2019 at 8:46 AM, notanotherdonkey said:

A lost bet here,Never mind onwards and upwards. I fancy Serena Williams to win the tournament but had a few at bigger prices as well.Good Luck

I layed some of my bet back at 7-2 once S.Williams got to the final and made a tidy profit either way.One of my other picks got beat in the semi finals. Good Luck

[Snoopdog]

Serena was a lost bet for me too. Had her at 5/1. Having never heared of Andrescu, I didn't bother laying a bit back. I couldn't even watch with Amazon Prime Video having a UK exclusive (Terrible on the part of the US Open - 90% of audience gone, just to accept the biggest shilling. Too much of this going on.)

For the men's, I've been talked into Nadal 3-1 at 12/5 by PaddyP. Bookmaker's tips should obviously be treated with caution, though he did refund Novak bets ?. No great confidence, but we'll see.

[neilovan]

21 hours ago, neilovan said:

Andreescu has just had the most amazing breakout year. If memory serves me correctly, it started before the Aussie open in Auckland, where a couple of freaky results stood out for me. In the round of 16 she beat the #1 seed (Wozniacki  6-4 6-4). In the next match she showed me the mindset of a future star.

She played Venus WIlliams and lost the 1st set 6-7. Most players on the woman's tour (and quite a few in the mens) fold up in the second after a close, emotionally and physically invested 1st set. This kid took WIlliams to pieces winning 6-7 6-1 6-3.  It was an eye opener. A ridiculous break out season follows, with wins at Indian Wells and in Toronto.

The seasons record is ridiculously good, winning 34 of 39 matches (87%). This is after stepping up from ITF with a win percentage of 73%.  Come on, get real, stepping up 2 divisions, she starts spanking good players.

So, can she beat Serena?  I don't think Serena can intimidate her with power, but the trick for Andreescu is to keep it close in the 1st set.  Keep Serena on the court, and her possibilities increase as the match goes on. Two simple tactics will really help her. Make Serena move  ... so don't give her a stable platform to crank the ball. SO more balls down the sides, and get Serena moving forward. In my opinion the woman's game is very 1 dimensional. They hate volleying, and most are baseline hitting machines.  

Odds of 3.3 for the Andreescu win are not that brilliant, but they suggest no easy ride for Serena here. I think a close match is on the cards, and would rather go 3 sets at better than odds of 2.6

 

Well, Serena got properly spanked.Forget the slight 2nd set comeback, it was a hiding. Andreescu let her concentration wander at 5-1.

My favorite next gen player is  Medvedev, but I don't think he is ready to beat Nadal here. His game has really improved, but he needs to up his fitness and workrate. He can take care of Federer in a 3 setter, but the blitzing he got from Nadal at Cincinnati (6-3 6-0) cannot be underestimated. That is a proper  ass kicking.  I think Medvedev is capable of taking a set here, but I can't see him winning it. My feeling is that there will be at least one set that Nadal romps (probably 61 or 62. Would be going for a 4 setter at odds of  2.8

 

[CzechPunter]

Yep, I also have the feeling that it's going to be either 3-0 or 3-1 today. Medvedev has been absolutely great so far, but he's faced only larger hitters so far, while Nadal is going to test his fitness to the maximum. Can't see him holding.