Tennis Tips - August 5 - August 11

[teodorppv]

Taylor Fritz to beat Hubert Hurkacz with WilliamHill at 2.20

Right now Taylor Fritz is the better player for me. He is in good form, he reached the final in Mexico and also the US hard court swing is his territory even though the match is in Canada I personally think he will be more comfortable than HuHu. They have played one match before and Fritz won it.

The biggest reason why I am choosing Fritz is the fact that HuHu has some kind of a problem with converting break points. In their previous meeting HuHu had 8 break points and won just one of them. In his last match against Isner was the same, in the first 2 games of Isner serve HuHu had 6 and Isner saved all of them. Both of the players Isner and Fritz are big servers but that is still not a good excuse for HuHu, personally I think there is some kind of a mental situation with HuHU right now and clearly he is not playing very well against tall guys with very good serve.

[Torque]

11 minutes ago, bobix said:

Hey folks, am I the only one who think Pella can win against the odds today? OK, Goffin has the H2H advantage, but the gaucho aleady show that he can cause him plenty of problems on hard (just remember that US Open match two years ago). The lose to Nishioka in Washington could indicate that Goffin is not in the best shape, and I doubt he went there just to collect the check.

I think he can. Over the last couple of years he's turned into something of an all-courter rather than just adept on clay. He's picked up some nice results on hard and even grass and he must be feeling confident about his game. Goffin on the other hand hasn't been a reliable pick for some time. He shows flashes of brilliance in matches, like against Nadal at the French, but he hasn't really been the same player since his eye injury. Pella beating him wouldn't be all that surprising IMHO.

[Lorenzi Musetti]

5 hours ago, DrO said:

What do you guys think about Albot - Simon match? Value surely on Albot. My local bookie is offering him at 2.30

I think Albot will have a good chance today. Simon with bad results on north-american hard courts the last three years (2-10) and at Rogers Cup (8-9 total). he had not been in R16 since 2009 and he has not played here for the last three years. Albot makes his top50-breakthrough this year with SFs in montpellier and delray in the beginning of the yeat and last week here played SF too in los cabos. he's in good shape and he likes the conditions on faster hardcourts.

[CzechPunter]

@MMABetting97 As you can see, I have two picks for today, Collins and Vekic. I don't have any "secret" picks and the confidence is almost always the same. Also, I'm not quite sure how much more betting I'm going to get done this week, as I'm probably going to have to do some traveling.

[Bandiii]

Hey guys, im also a newbie here, but as i see, it is a good community with good tipsters aswell, who tries to share their mind, to make profit together.

For Today i have Auger-Aliassime F. to win 2-0 @1.53 at Unibet  this should be an easy game for him, i do not have any doubt, that he is gonna lose a set today.

(Also is there any statistics to you guys (I mean, your average odds, your win/lose ratio, maybe %roi, etc) I tried to figure it out, but i did not find anything about your previous (not speaking about back in 1-2 days, more about weeks & months) statistics. Could you help me if its available where can i find it?

Edited August 6, 2019 by Bandiii

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to PL @Bandiii! For the next time, please don't include any links in your posts and remember to post the odds and the bookmaker you're taking your picks with. There aren't any general statistics, it's up to everyone to keep them on their own if they want to do so.

[CzechPunter]

Guido Pella to beat Radu Albot at 1.72 with Bet365

Pella certainly looked a bit better than Albot yesterday and I rate him as the better player as well, he really has gone on a roll with those Wimbledon performances and now has a chance to get some serious ranking points against beatable opposition. He was unlucky to run into the red-hot Schwartzman last week, but this should be easier, perhaps even easier than Goffin.

[Larkin22]

Millman to beat Cilic at 3.1 with Betfair

Will be interesting to see where Cilic is at the minute, Millman can give anyone a tough game with his persistence and calculated hitting. Think he has a chance here, especially at these odds.

[Larkin22]

Denis Shapovalov to beat Dominic Thiem at 2.3 with Betfair

Shapo is a big hitter although inconsistent, this bet is mainly against Thiem. Having just won a clay court tournament I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall at the first hurdle in this hard court match.

[teodorppv]

Anett Kontaveit to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro at 1.73 with WilliamHill

Carla Suarez-Navarro could be a pain in the ass with her unorthodox for WTA one-handed backhand but Kontaveit has all the weapons needed to make Carla's live tough. Kontaveit is aggressive player with strong ground strokes and very good kick serve. She is a good server which means that maybe Navarro will be in a very complicated situation. Carla is famous for her returns and when she plays against player with a very good serve all of her matches are tough. Against V. Williams she broke her serve couple of times but today Williams's serve is nowhere near the class it was before. 

If Anett has a good day and reach 65-70% first serve I think the match is going to be easy for her.

[Smiles Tennis]

On 8/6/2019 at 5:10 PM, Bandiii said:

Hey guys, im also a newbie here, but as i see, it is a good community with good tipsters aswell, who tries to share their mind, to make profit together.

For Today i have Auger-Aliassime F. to win 2-0 @1.53 at Unibet  this should be an easy game for him, i do not have any doubt, that he is gonna lose a set today.

(Also is there any statistics to you guys (I mean, your average odds, your win/lose ratio, maybe %roi, etc) I tried to figure it out, but i did not find anything about your previous (not speaking about back in 1-2 days, more about weeks & months) statistics. Could you help me if its available where can i find it?

In the Betting Systems and Strategy forum there are some threads with full stats of the bets, ROI etc if you want to see those. My tennis 2.0 thread, the 100 Value Bets thread as well. 

[CzechPunter]

Well, Pella got the job done, but I don't see much for today. Pella +5.5 appealed at first, but I'm not so enthusiastic anymore.

[Teodore]

For me 1.36 on Osaka against Światek is great odds. I love Iga, she will be Great in next few years but currently she dont have enough skills to fight against top. 

2-0 1.88 is also good. 

Edited August 8, 2019 by Teodore

[vvararu]

I like Bertens to beat Andreescu at 1.55 Unibet.

I watched a little bit the match between Andreescu and Kasatkina and the Canadian did not shine. It was more a mediocre form of Kasatkina. Yes she won 2:1 Kasatkina and Bouchard, but Bertens is a tougher nut to crack. She won Di Lorenzo 6:2, 6:1 in the first round so she seems to be on fire.

I don't expect surprises here. 6:4 6:3 for Bertens.

[Witcher27]

Hi everyone,

I've been following this thread for quite a while and really enjoyed your input here but haven't written anything so far. There is one bet for today that came to my attention, it's Purcell - Soeda (Aptos challenger, hard surface) and I'm wondering why initial odds has dropped so much in favour of Soeda. Purcell holds H2H record of 3-0  (2 on hard courts, 1 indoors), last meeting was in March, and Purcell has a 27/15 record on hard courts this year against 13/12 for Soeda. Does any of you have an idea what might be the reason to value Purcell with odds like @2.30 at Unibet? If there is nothing that I'm not aware of I think that there is a good value in this bet.

[South_African_Punter]

Cilic to beat Thiem at 1.85 with SportingBet

I keep this simple and sweet. Cilic played quite well last week against eventual runner-up, Danii Medvedev, in Washington. He should prove a stern challenge to Thiem, who was looking rather shaky to the very out-of-form Shapovalov. 

[aphro]

6 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Cilic to beat Thiem at 1.85 with SportingBet

I keep this simple and sweet. Cilic played quite well last week against eventual runner-up, Danii Medvedev, in Washington. He should prove a stern challenge to Thiem, who was looking rather shaky to the very out-of-form Shapovalov. 

I'll go against you on this:

Thiem to beat Cilic at 2.06 with Pinnacle

[vvararu]

1 hour ago, aphro said:

I'll go against you on this:

Thiem to beat Cilic at 2.06 with Pinnacle

How does this help? Any reason, any thoughts?

[teodorppv]

I am with aphro on this one 

Thiem to beat Cilic 

I have few reasons to think that way

1. Thiem won their only match against each other

2. Thiem is no more that guy who plays only on clay, this year he won Indian Wells masters and beat players like Raonic and Federer en-route to the title.

3.Cilic is nowhere near the form in which he was in his "golden years" when he won US Open, he just it is not the same player.

4. Since Madrid Masters Cilic was not been able to win a 3rd round game

5. Personally for me Thiem right now is the better player.

[Torque]

Nikoloz Basiliashvili to beat Alexander Zverev @ 3.00 Bet365

Given the respective form of these two, this price about Basilashvili almost jumped off the page. The Georgian is on a solid winning run and he faces a player in Sascha who hasn't been able to get any momentum going all season. The German has spoken about off-court issues affecting his game and his confidence has taken a knock after such a lean year by his standards, and whilst his win over Norrie was a good start Basilashvili should provide a much sterner test. They met recently on clay and Basil got the win and even though this match being played on hard is probably in favour of Zverev, I don't think it's as much in his favour as the prices suggest.

 

[TennisProfit]

Canada WTA Toronto 17:00 Kenin S. - Yastremska D. Tip: 2 Yastremska D. @1.95 x 5u

Italy Manerbio Challenger Men 17:15 Cerundolo F. - Arnaboldi A. Tip: 2 Arnaboldi A.@1,97 x 4u

Canada ATP Montreal 18:00 Cilic M. - Thiem D. Tip: 1 Cilic M. @1.95 x 5u

[teodorppv]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Marie Bouzkova with WilliamHill at 2.00

This could be 50/50 match or very easy match for Ostapenko, everything depends on Ostapenko's serve and how many unforced errors she is going to make. I am picking Ostapenko here just because I do not think Bouzkova is ready for this high level, 3rd round in Masters event. Jelena is nowhere near the form from 2017 when she won the French Open and since the end of 2017 everything is going down for her, but she is unpredictable player and if it is her day she could beat everyone, for example last year she reached semi-final in Wimbledon and no one was expecting that from her. This week she won couple of tough matches which could be a boost for her and also on the other hand Bouzkova played 4 matches already this week ,2 more than Ostapenko, so she could feel some fatigue.

[Smiles Tennis]

12 hours ago, vvararu said:

I like Bertens to beat Andreescu at 1.55 Unibet.

I watched a little bit the match between Andreescu and Kasatkina and the Canadian did not shine. It was more a mediocre form of Kasatkina. Yes she won 2:1 Kasatkina and Bouchard, but Bertens is a tougher nut to crack. She won Di Lorenzo 6:2, 6:1 in the first round so she seems to be on fire.

I don't expect surprises here. 6:4 6:3 for Bertens.

I didn't realise Bertens was such an under performer at these odds. She plays like an evens shot at 1.55. I like her a lot but always a lay at these odds on hard court until she wins a ton of matches to get it back to over performing. 

[Torque]

She must be an under performer at all odds at the moment. She's got to sort her serve out otherwise she's not going to get any further in the game. Her first serve percentage is too low and she's a double fault machine. At the highest level you just can't afford to give points away like she does - the margins between success and failure are too fine. If she hadn't served 10 double faults against Andreescu there's every chance she wins that match given it was so close.

[Torque]

7 hours ago, Torque said:

Nikoloz Basiliashvili to beat Alexander Zverev @ 3.00 Bet365

Given the respective form of these two, this price about Basilashvili almost jumped off the page. The Georgian is on a solid winning run and he faces a player in Sascha who hasn't been able to get any momentum going all season. The German has spoken about off-court issues affecting his game and his confidence has taken a knock after such a lean year by his standards, and whilst his win over Norrie was a good start Basilashvili should provide a much sterner test. They met recently on clay and Basil got the win and even though this match being played on hard is probably in favour of Zverev, I don't think it's as much in his favour as the prices suggest.

 

Close but not close enough. Got to say Sascha deserved the win - had Basil under pressure in nearly every service game and it was only his inability to save break points that saw the match go to three sets.

[aphro]

10 hours ago, vvararu said:

How does this help? Any reason, any thoughts?

I've explained it here several times, this is math system that has ROI more than 20%. I don't give more info not just because i'm greedy or lazy - don't have that info.

When it comes to coincidence with some user's tips - ROI can reach 50 and more percents, that's why i'm posting my picks here

[vvararu]

Hey guys,

What do you think about Pliskova - Andreescu? I'm trying to catch the loss of Andreescu but history shows that when she is in a good run, it's hard to stop her. 

Will be Pliskova abla to stop her? I tried yesterday with Bertens and failed

[kempazzo]

I think Andreescu is worth a shot @2.75 - she was good vs Bertens, motivated as hell, the crowd is all behind her and it seems to be powering up her performences. Moreover - she used drop-shots very well, and Pliskova is much worse than Bertens when it comes to court movement.

Were it anywhere else than Canada - I wouldn't touch it, but in Toronto - I'm in.

[Sir Puntalot]

20 hours ago, Witcher27 said:

Hi everyone,

I've been following this thread for quite a while and really enjoyed your input here but haven't written anything so far. There is one bet for today that came to my attention, it's Purcell - Soeda (Aptos challenger, hard surface) and I'm wondering why initial odds has dropped so much in favour of Soeda. Purcell holds H2H record of 3-0  (2 on hard courts, 1 indoors), last meeting was in March, and Purcell has a 27/15 record on hard courts this year against 13/12 for Soeda. Does any of you have an idea what might be the reason to value Purcell with odds like @2.30 at Unibet? If there is nothing that I'm not aware of I think that there is a good value in this bet.

 to Punters Lounge @Witcher27   

[vvararu]

What are your thoughts, guys, about Williams - Andreescu? Another lost final for big momma?

Andreescu is not very fresh having played more hours on court but the public will support her (not sure how important is this for Williams at her experience)...