Premier League 2019/20 Ante-Post Betting

[_Ghost_]

Roughly 1/3 of the way through the season... here's my projected table:

[harry_rag]

On 8/3/2019 at 5:52 PM, harry_rag said:

Can't argue with that. Toyed with opting for his season goal minutes at 300 (logic being he might score a few late goal if he is used as a sub) but decided to keep it simple and follow you. Hopefully he's first choice given he's their record signing (so far).

@waynecoyne So McBurnie's goal yesterday sees him cover the spread so any more goals sees us in profit on the buy at 6. But... had I gone with the buy of his goal minutes I mentioned as a possible alternative, I'd already be 45 points in front! 

[waynecoyne]

On 7/12/2020 at 5:49 PM, harry_rag said:

@waynecoyne So McBurnie's goal yesterday sees him cover the spread so any more goals sees us in profit on the buy at 6. But... had I gone with the buy of his goal minutes I mentioned as a possible alternative, I'd already be 45 points in front! 

i've been a bit disappointed @harry_rag, i thought he'd score more. I also bought mcginn at 3.5 and he scored 3 early on then got injured. Greenwood was one i was looking at also, with hindsight that would have been profitable. I think he was about 6 to buy.

[harry_rag]

On 7/30/2019 at 6:02 PM, harry_rag said:

Gone for a sell of total penalties awarded at 132 with SX (had to sell converted at 102 and unconverted at 30 as they're not quoting a combined price). I'm going with the "sell hype" theory which tends to do well more often than not, I just don't think the combined effect of VAR and the new handball rule should have pushed the figure anywhere near as high as that.

Over the last 10 years, the number awarded has ranged from 80 to 106 and averaged 94. There's no indication of VAR alone having much effect on penalties in the other 4 major leagues and the suggestion seems to be it will be used sparingly here, only where there's believed to have been a clear error made. There's also signs that the interpretation of the handball rule will not be as strict as we have seen elsewhere with Mike RIley saying he doesn't think there will be much of a change to how it has been interpreted for the past few seasons.

We'll see what happens but I'm happy to be short of that price.

87 penalties in total so far (67 scored and 20 missed). I've taken the opportunity to close out penalties scored at 68.75 as there's so little downside to doing so. Profit on that element of the bet 33.25 times stake. No option to close out the missed penalties element so I've had small doubles on penalty missed across all 10 games! 

Happy enough to have called it right, and to avoid the potential mild discomfort of a penalty glut on the last day of the season!