Smiles Tennis Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 another couple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 Last two for this evening. Current total ROI is a fraction over 5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 July running total: Staked: £27,815 Profit: £1,272 ROI: 4.6% anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Morning picks anaconda69 and thecurlyone1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Three more picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 More picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Last two for today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 Morning picks. Some a fair bit higher to match in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddsPredictor Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 (edited) Thanks for these - I will let you know how I get on - missed a few as I did not get up early enough - also will be lucky to match Jarry at 2.1 - only playing with monopoly money so will not interfere with your bets. How do you collect your data on all these different players and different tournaments? Football is simple as the fixtures are announced well in advance then a simple copy from one of the many results sites is easy. But with tennis you do not know who is playing who until the day before. Edited July 21, 2019 by OddsPredictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 1 hour ago, OddsPredictor said: Thanks for these - I will let you know how I get on - missed a few as I did not get up early enough - also will be lucky to match Jarry at 2.1 - only playing with monopoly money so will not interfere with your bets. How do you collect your data on all these different players and different tournaments? Football is simple as the fixtures are announced well in advance then a simple copy from one of the many results sites is easy. But with tennis you do not know who is playing who until the day before. I just check Betfair in the morning and then do the picks with any matches that have a reasonable market developed. I have a database of all results for all players that I use. Some times I will be checking some later matches and there will be a Challenger event with a match that has some liquidity available at short notice so now becomes viable to use. It's all about what the price is and how often are the market/bookies right with their price. For Jarry for eg, He isn't value at 1.7 for my method. I could just leave it but would take 2.1 so happy to leave it in play to hopefully match. I try to ignore what goes on during the match, i am focused only on SP and the end result. anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 Final picks for today. anaconda69 and OddsPredictor 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddsPredictor Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Mark me down as impressed. Cannot keep up with all your selections but the early ones that I have - have been great - see below. So impressed in fact that I may try to emulate you and create my OddsPredictor for tennis. Though if its anything like my football one it will take three years to reach a workable state. Smiles Tennis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 1 more pick for match starting shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 45 minutes ago, OddsPredictor said: Mark me down as impressed. Cannot keep up with all your selections but the early ones that I have - have been great - see below. So impressed in fact that I may try to emulate you and create my OddsPredictor for tennis. Though if its anything like my football one it will take three years to reach a workable state. I'm glad you got on some of the nice odds winners. anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 (edited) Nice profits yesterday, on the right side of the Harrison retirement. Jung wasn't fully matched so that's been updated with actual amounts that were matched. July running total: Staked: £32349 Profit: £1368 ROI: 4.2% Edited July 22, 2019 by Tennis Picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 First picks today. anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 More picks anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 2 more anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 4 more anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 Ok, more playing around with the stats revealed that the over 3.00 bets are running away with it. A loss yesterday but it's about the bigger picture of course. The bets of 3.00 and over have been: 57 bets Staked: £1917 Profit: £1617 ROI: 84% All the other bets, below 3.00, close to 400 of them, have produced a loss of over £600. Maybe this is the biggest golden goose I have found? I have expected the ROI for higher odds to drop when it was recently at about 48% but it has increased. There were also two more at 3.8 and 3.3 that won but weren't matched as I was trying to grab higher than SP so if I had taken SP of maybe 3.0 and 3.5 then this would be even higher. I can't see it lasting, it's just too high. But for now I will be following the higher odds only and seeing how that goes. I like testing with real bets, it makes me focus more so I will continue to post them here, but it may only be a few a day, with not many towards the later stages of tournaments. There are a few bets outstanding from yesterday still to complete to fill the spreadsheet too. anaconda69 and thecurlyone1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 Klahn won actually, so there is three outstanding matches and it was not a loss of £412 it was £361, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 This mornings picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Have you been able to backtest with historical data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, anaconda69 said: Have you been able to backtest with historical data? It would take too long. it would take a couple of hours to do each days picks, basically as long as it takes me now to do the picks by going through the matches. In fact it would take even longer as now I just bring up the current results for the stats, but checking a match for last year for example, I'd need to bring up the results but only select matches before then, so more work for every single pick. Just not viable sadly. anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 I was thinking if u had enough datasets u could automate it some how. Like the Betfair results data with ground etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddsPredictor Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Going back forecasting past results is a waste of time as however hard you try you always build in a bias. The future is what matters and the number of selections is phenomenally high in anycase. So many in fact I can't keep up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, OddsPredictor said: Going back forecasting past results is a waste of time as however hard you try you always build in a bias. The future is what matters and the number of selections is phenomenally high in anycase. So many in fact I can't keep up. Less now as i am only going to do the higher odds picks for a bit. 2 more. anaconda69 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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