Tennis 2.0

[Smiles Tennis]

another couple

[Smiles Tennis]

Last two for this evening.

 

Current total ROI is a fraction over 5%.

[Smiles Tennis]

July running total:

Staked: £27,815

Profit: £1,272

ROI: 4.6%

[Smiles Tennis]

Morning picks

 

[Smiles Tennis]

Three more picks.

 

[Smiles Tennis]

More picks

[Smiles Tennis]

Picks

[Smiles Tennis]

Last two for today

[Smiles Tennis]

Morning picks. Some a fair bit higher to match in play. 

 

[OddsPredictor]

Thanks for these - I will let you know how I get on - missed a few as I did not get up early enough - also will be lucky to match Jarry at 2.1 - only playing with monopoly money so will not interfere with your bets.

How do you collect your data on all these different players and different tournaments?

Football is simple as the fixtures are announced well in advance then a simple copy from one of the many results sites is easy.

But with tennis you do not know who is playing who until the day before.

Edited July 21, 2019 by OddsPredictor

[Smiles Tennis]

1 hour ago, OddsPredictor said:

Thanks for these - I will let you know how I get on - missed a few as I did not get up early enough - also will be lucky to match Jarry at 2.1 - only playing with monopoly money so will not interfere with your bets.

How do you collect your data on all these different players and different tournaments?

Football is simple as the fixtures are announced well in advance then a simple copy from one of the many results sites is easy.

But with tennis you do not know who is playing who until the day before.

I just check Betfair in the morning and then do the picks with any matches that have a reasonable market developed. I have a database of all results for all players that I use. 

Some times I will be checking some later matches and there will be a Challenger event with a match that has some liquidity available at short notice so now becomes viable to use. 

It's all about what the price is and how often are the market/bookies right with their price. 

For Jarry for eg, He isn't value at 1.7 for my method. I could just leave it but would take 2.1 so happy to leave it in play to hopefully match. I try to ignore what goes on during the match, i am focused only on SP and the end result. 

[Smiles Tennis]

[Smiles Tennis]

Final picks for today. 

[OddsPredictor]

Mark me down as impressed. Cannot keep up with all your selections but the early ones that I have - have been great - see below.

So impressed in fact that I may try to emulate you and create my OddsPredictor for tennis. Though if its anything like my football one it will take three years to reach a workable state.

[Smiles Tennis]

1 more pick for  match starting shortly. 

 

[Smiles Tennis]

45 minutes ago, OddsPredictor said:

Mark me down as impressed. Cannot keep up with all your selections but the early ones that I have - have been great - see below.

So impressed in fact that I may try to emulate you and create my OddsPredictor for tennis. Though if its anything like my football one it will take three years to reach a workable state.

I'm glad you got on some of the nice odds winners.

[Smiles Tennis]

Nice profits yesterday, on the right side of the Harrison retirement. Jung wasn't fully matched so that's been updated with actual amounts that were matched. 

July running total:

Staked: £32349

Profit: £1368

ROI: 4.2%

Edited July 22, 2019 by Tennis Picks

[Smiles Tennis]

First picks today.

[Smiles Tennis]

More picks

[Smiles Tennis]

[Smiles Tennis]

2 more

[Smiles Tennis]

4 more

[Smiles Tennis]

Ok, more playing around with the stats revealed that the over 3.00 bets are running away with it. A loss yesterday but it's about the bigger picture of course. The bets of 3.00 and over have been:

57 bets

Staked: £1917

Profit: £1617

ROI: 84%

All the other bets, below 3.00, close to 400 of them, have produced a loss of over £600. 

Maybe this is the biggest golden goose I have found? I have expected the ROI for higher odds to drop when it was recently at about 48% but it has increased. 

There were also two more at 3.8 and 3.3 that won but weren't matched as I was trying to grab higher than SP so if I had taken SP of maybe 3.0 and 3.5 then this would be even higher. 

I can't see it lasting, it's just too high. But for now I will be following the higher odds only and seeing how that goes. I like testing with real bets, it makes me focus more so I will continue to post them here, but it may only be a few a day, with not many towards the later stages of tournaments. 

There are a few bets outstanding from yesterday still to complete to fill the spreadsheet too. 

[Smiles Tennis]

Klahn won actually, so there is three outstanding matches and it was not a loss of £412 it was £361,

[Smiles Tennis]

This mornings picks.

 

[anaconda69]

Have you been able to backtest with historical data?

[Smiles Tennis]

21 minutes ago, anaconda69 said:

Have you been able to backtest with historical data?

It would take too long. it would take a couple of hours to do each days picks, basically as long as it takes me now to do the picks by going through the matches. In fact it would take even longer as now I just bring up the current results for the stats, but checking a match for last year for example, I'd need to bring up the results but only select matches before then, so more work for every single pick. Just not viable sadly. 

[anaconda69]

I was thinking if u had enough datasets u could automate it some how. Like the Betfair results data with ground etc

[OddsPredictor]

Going back forecasting past results is a waste of time as however hard you try you always build in a bias.

The future is what matters and the number of selections is phenomenally high in anycase.

So many in fact I can't keep up.

[Smiles Tennis]

9 minutes ago, OddsPredictor said:

Going back forecasting past results is a waste of time as however hard you try you always build in a bias.

The future is what matters and the number of selections is phenomenally high in anycase.

So many in fact I can't keep up.

Less now as i am only going to do the higher odds picks for a bit. 

2 more.