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OK, here we go again. The last thread changed from the system to a trading diary and back again. 

I am starting fresh here. I will do my best to get picks up before matches start.

The method:

Using long term results I check to see if a player under/over performs compared to market sentiment. I then bet accordingly. 

Surface matters. 

I usually avoid backing below around 1.3 most of the time.

I also place bets slightly higher to be matched in play. Maybe 10-15 ticks higher for faves, 20 ticks for dogs. Most players drift that much during the matches to enable the bets to be matched. If I miss out on many winners due to not being matched then I will reduce this. 

Stakes are around 1.5% of the bank per bet. It's rough, I do it in my head, not to the penny. 

Two bets to start with today, maybe one or two more later this afternoon but unlikely. 

 

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Pliskova didn't get matched so will change Querrey to current price which is 1.23. I fear missing out on too many easy winners trying to get the extra ticks. 

 

Edit: And now he's drifted to 1.3 almost straight away! lol

Edited by Tennis Picks

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Loss of £212 yesterday, nearly all of the underdogs lost, it could've been a profitable day if a couple had turned it around. Bouchard came closest I think, being a game away, but it's Bouchard and she was never really going to win I don't think lol

 

 

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7 hours ago, thecurlyone1 said:

Going well fella 👍🏻

Ticking over at the moment yeah, thanks. I got excited when Niculescu was leading in the first set lol, would have been a great day if she would have won as well. :D

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Today's picks are ready. Lots of heavy faves today. I don't really like it as if the couple of underdogs don't win then all it takes is a couple of the faves to lose and it's a losing day with it being hard to make up the losses. 

But, the algorithm is the algorithm. I can't argue with the rules. I personally would have been all over Halep to beat Azarenka at evens yesterday but the rules picked Azarenka so I went with her, and she lost. 

I'm sure there will be some where my opinion will be wrong and the system will throw up the winner instead so shouldn't really compliain.

Over £500 profit recently so a nice buffer to help when the bad days come rolling along like they always do at some point. 

 

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