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Viaticus

Basic criteria help please

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Morning. I am thinking about specialising in a particular subset of racing and I’d like to get some feedback on my chosen criteria. Basically I’m recreational and o don’t want to get bogged down with complex systems etc at this point. What I’d like to do is focus on an area that interests me and try to become a bit of a specialist in that area. 

 

My chosen criteria is as follows

distance 1m to 1m4f

class 3 and above

5-10 runners

all ages

handicaps.

 

so my questions are

should i include listed and group races or would that increase the information to a point where it would be hard to handle. I’m trying to keep scrolling through form to a min

Is all ages a good idea or should o reduce further to say just 2yo or 3yo etc

If I stick to handicaps above C3 are there enough c3,2,1 handicap races each week to have betting opportunities? 

 

Any other feedback back would be welcome. 

 

Im looking for a small easy to manage easy to keep on top of and easy to follow horses with out spending hours per day or getting over whelmed.

 

cheers

 

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Hi @Viaticus mate, welcome to Punters Lounge

The basic idea of concentrating on a particular division within racing is a sound one but you have to be careful how much you limit yourself. For example I have had a quick look through the cards today and you wouldn't have had a qualifier (mainly due to the amount of runners you want to limit)

 

 

56 minutes ago, Viaticus said:

Is all ages a good idea or should o reduce further to say just 2yo or 3yo etc

You wont many 2yo races at the distance you require so probably best left to all ages.

 

57 minutes ago, Viaticus said:

should i include listed and group races or would that increase the information to a point where it would be hard to handle. I’m trying to keep scrolling through form to a min

Totally different kettle of fish to handicaps so I would do one or the other personally. The distance bracket you have chosen is actually good for non-handicaps but your betting will be done at the weekend and at festivals like York, Ascot, Goodwood etc...

 

58 minutes ago, Viaticus said:

If I stick to handicaps above C3 are there enough c3,2,1 handicap races each week to have betting opportunities? 

You wont find a heap of Class 3 races at any trip during the early part of the week so further reducing the selections with trip and runners is obviously going to restrict this further. Now maybe that is what you want?? 
If you include Class 4 races this would open up many more opportunities but then you are getting into that tricky bracket where you get fast improvers clashing with out of form old handicappers!! Depends on how much racing you can watch/study.

:ok

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I have posted this on other forums and this is by far the most useful post so thank you. 

So if I increase the number of runners - I could include the 3.20 today at haydock for example. Would that be advisable if I went down the handicap route? 

Also, would you look to include all weather or just turf? Is that a useful thing to do or would it over complicate things for me further. ?

finally , you mentioned that listed and group races are good over this distance if I am happy to bet at a weekend. My understanding is that it’s much harder to find an edge at the high level and studying form is tougher there? Would you agree? 

 

My idea scenario if I’m honest is that o become an not of a specialist in a small area where I maybe place just a couple of bets per week - maybe 5 at the most. 

Rather than betting every day. 

 

Thanks again realy helpful

 

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You need to gauge/paper trade your system before betting with it for real. A system with five bets per week will take around two years to gauge to give it a far more accurate assessment.

Without assessing properly, you may as well eradicate the "donkeys" from a race then pick a name out of a hat.

Of course you can broaden the criteria to create around five bets per DAY which would take about four months.

The runner criteria 5-10 is OK. Just don't exceed 14 if you do decide to up the field at some point. As for the other's, I'd expand to create more betting opportunities.

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6 hours ago, Viaticus said:

So if I increase the number of runners - I could include the 3.20 today at haydock for example. Would that be advisable if I went down the handicap route? 

Its totally down to how many bets your happy with, if you only want a few then stick to 10, there will be some. (You would have to stick to 'runners declared' rather than actual runners. Some races may have 14 in the morning and 9 by race time if todays weather is anything to go by!)

6 hours ago, Viaticus said:

Also, would you look to include all weather or just turf? Is that a useful thing to do or would it over complicate things for me further. ?

I wouldn't personally unless you have a liking for it. I think AW racing is a specialist subject on its own. 6 tracks 3 different surfaces for a start.

6 hours ago, Viaticus said:

finally , you mentioned that listed and group races are good over this distance if I am happy to bet at a weekend. My understanding is that it’s much harder to find an edge at the high level and studying form is tougher there? Would you agree? 

Form works out far more consistently the higher the grade you go in my opinion. As a trade off for being able to pick more winners you get shorter prices for many of the winners, so you have to think about that. The edge as you call it. Strike will be higher though if you have a decent level of knowledge but I don't think its any harder to read the form personally.

Take Royal Ascot next week, you will get loads of chances to have a go at some decent Group/Listed races and many will fall in to the 5-10 runners I would think.
See how you go mate

:ok

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I'm someone who does tend to stick to a particular subset of races but I change the subset every few weeks or few months ......... I find the main problem with sticking to a small group of horses is that you get to know them too well and get pre-conceived ideas stuck in your mind which prevents you from looking at the race or the form logically

of course I don't stick rigidly to it though but each day I look first at the races within my subset

My most profitable subset of races is all aged handicaps ............ with a few 'rules' to try and stick by

Firstly I try and stick with the younger horses in the field on the basis that they're more likely to still be on the upgrade and ahead of the handicapper ....... this is one big advantage of doing all aged handicaps

I try and stick to races from 7 furlongs upwards. ...... this is because I think the sprints have a wider age range as sprinters can peak at 6 or older....... it's more difficult to narrow the field by age and experience. Later in the year I particularly like staying races over 12 furlongs plus because the weight for age scale seems to benefit younger horses to a larger degree than at other trips or times of year (Mark Johnston is particularly adept at using the WFA scale to his advantage)

Personally I like class 4 and 5 handicaps firstly because there's lots of them. But perhaps more importantly I like to look for horses dropping in class and you don't get many horses dropping in class if you look at class 2 handicaps because they're the top ones (there are extremely few class 1 handicaps on the flat ........ a handful each season). 

Field size ..... I'd try and avoid the really big field handicaps because it takes too long to look through all the horses plus the chances of interference, getting blocked in or hampered would logically be higher and there's nothing worse than seeing your jockey with a double handful trapped on the rail and unable to get out. For handicaps I like fields up to about 12 which offers the possibility of EW betting without being too crowded

 

When I feel like a change from all aged handicaps I might look at 2 year old races (generally towards the end of the season).......... or group/listed races just on the basis that I'd probably be watching them anyway For a complete break from the flat I might look at novice hurdles or chases in summer jumping

When I'm feeling lazy I just scour the cards for any races with 5 or 6 runners because I reckon I can zip through 3 or 4 of them in the time it takes to look at one handicap

I quite often look at All Weather handicaps and Flat handicaps at the same time as you can often get horses better on one surface than the other which helps narrow the field. However this is accounted for in the prices so it's more profitable to look for horses improving on the AW who have a poor turf record from when they hadn't started improving ..... or vice versa

 

 

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One thing I forgot to mention earlier, Viaticus, is that have you made any projections? By that I mean, how much are you expecting to make each week from your bets? Once you have that figure, you'll have a better idea of how much you need to "invest" to achieve this. This can turn out to be a bit of an eye-opener but it's really important to know what to expect otherwise frustration/indiscipline can set in.

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • very hard to trust this bet , betting on Qatar to not lose Risky , I feel cant set on my nervous 90 minutes with Qatar 😄  I know them and I Know their defense too  I maybe agree betting on Qatar 0.75 worth small stake but I dont feel good to bet on this one 
    • Uruguay vs Ecuador One of the more intriguing group stage matches is coming up this Sunday when Uruguay and Ecuador meet in an 11pm BST kick-off at the Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte. Neither side has enjoyed much success in this competition over recent years so this opening game is a big chance to put those ghosts to rest. Uruguay remain under the management of Oscar Tabarez. It's now 13 years in charge of the national team for the experienced head coach. During his tenure at the helm, he's guided Uruguay to the 2011 Copa America title and a 4th placed finish in the 2010 World Cup and 2013 Confederations Cup. Unfortunately, in this competition they didn't even make it out of the group stage in 2016 and struggled to the Quarter-Finals in 2015. La Celeste do come into this tournament off the back of three wins with clean sheets kept in all three games. Admittedly, the opposition were only Panama, Thailand, and Uzbekistan. Ecuador are one of only two countries in South America to have never won the Copa America. La Tricolor's best performances were a 4th placed finish in both 1959 and 1993. They've only managed to navigate past the group stage once in the last seven tournaments. Hernan Dario Gomez's side come into this game without a win in their last 4 matches. I have a soft spot for Uruguay. On the day I went to get fitted for my wedding suit in 2012 it was when the Olympic Games were taking place. Uruguay had a game in Cardiff so the team was based there and I bumped into a few of them on Duke Street opposite the castle. They were all very pleasant including Tabarez. So on that basis I'm back them to win here. Well, not just that but I think they'll have too much for a weak Ecuador side. Uruguay -1 @ 3.50 with SpreadEx Uruguay HT/FT @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes @jazzman02, @real55555, @hristofor, @Peter_Portman, @Podosfairistis, @Niceguy, @markus808, @Feduloff, @clubgowi, @Neubs, @Hunter12, @salmonman, @JuMeSyn, @recklessrookie, @janesill, @Mustionown, @potus, @kevinjoh, @dinero, @Hutcho_CFC, @roveruk, @matrixman, @Jazzer Isaac, @Dylan Lynch, @Tiffy, @Kenton Schweppes, @MangoTheThird, @neilovan, @mcsilks, @Ameer, @thfc, @Roy The Boy, @Tim81, @sajtion, @newjack, @Gedkip, @Mindfulness, @Magic0024, @mijOsim, @canaries91, @waynecoyne, @allyhibs, @four-leaf, @Icongene, @malabgd, @Stevecw, @Xcout, @Teodore, @Bobby Vegas, @Darran, @DrO, @mtom, @KikoCy, @betcatalog, @immortal--, @allthethings, @DW_United, @Pipoca, @liamcorrigan86, @vasilli07, @Misa, @Pep004, @rOYS123, @thinkpink63, @ant8n, @BobEire, @RIOT88, @Power90, @Adley, @Alexc, @bastia, @Ameer. @Odyssey, and @Marek76, are any of you guys betting on these Group C matches?
    • Lola Paige 14.45 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 Bet365 Foaled February 25. 220,000 gns yearling, Galileo filly. Dam, maiden (stayed 1m), half-sister to smart winner up to 11f Tha'ir. Interesting newcomer. 
    • Celtic Manor 16.30 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog) Looks a typical progressive sort from his yard, winning 5f Windsor novice on return 3 weeks ago. Step back up to 6f should suit now handicapping and there's surely more to come.  Deburrafield 16.00 Downpatrick 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog) Fair hurdler. Very good second of 16 in handicap hurdle (25/1) at Ballinrobe (20.3f, good) 20 days ago, sticking to task. 
    • 16.55 Gowran park - Rehoboth Beach - 1 Pt Win @ 10\1 Bet365
    • Paraguay vs Qatar The Group B action continues on Sunday night when Paraguay and Qatar go head-to-head in an 8pm BST kick-off at the Estadio do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Considering the other two teams in this group are Argentina and Colombia then defeat would surely spell the beginning of the end in this tournament for whichever teams loses. Paraguay come into this game in truly dreadful form having won just 1 of their last 8 matches. The glimmer of hope for Eduardo Berizzo's side is that they beat Guatemala 2-0 in their most recent game so they enter this tournament off the back of a victory. Berizzo has only been in the job since February this year replacing the departing Juan Carlos Osorio. Having avoided defeat, albeit against abject opposition, in their last two matches could the poor run of form be coming to an end? Qatar are set to host the 2022 World Cup. It was a controversial issue and remains so. However, the Arabic nation is embracing it and they even managed to win the 2019 Asian Cup. As @Ameer states, there are reasons for that so let's not look too deeply into that. Almoez Ali won the golden boot at that tournament in January and February. Can they spring a surprise on another continent? Winning 7 of their last 8 matches with the solitary defeat coming against Brazil suggests they could well do with Felix Sanchez Bas organising his side effectively. I'm not sure who will win this. I want to back Ameer and say Paraguay but I wouldn't be surprised if this in-form Qatar side takes something from this game. I'm swaying towards a draw but I still think Paraguay might just be starting to click under Berizzo. I have to back the draw though I think it's worth placing a double chance bet on Qatar if you feel they could get something. Draw @ 3.50 with SpreadEx Anytime Scorer: Almoez Ali @ 4.75 with Bet365
    • Great work! Very positive start so far. Let's see how we fare with Group B over the couple of days.
    • 3rd -  in touch, headway 3f out, switched right over 2f out, effort over 1f out, ridden to lead briefly inside final furlong, ran on
    • 2nd - took keen hold, held up, went 3rd from the 3rd, went 2nd approaching 3 out, led last, headed flat, soon beaten 1st @ Evs - chased leaders in 3rd, went 2nd from 3f out and improved to dispute lead from 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out and kept on well inside final furlong 7th - prominent, led after 2f, ridden and headed over 3f out, soon lost place, behind over 2f out 4th - soon led, joined briefly halfway, led again early straight, strongly pressed over 1f out and headed 100 yards out, soon carried left and kept on one pace  
    • Félix Auger-Aliassime to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.75 with bet365 I took Félix in the last round but Raonic retired because he was not at his best physically. Now we have Félix priced almost at 3.00 again so I think the value is on him. Both players have not too many matches on this surface but their conditions make them very dangerous players here (aggressive players with good serve). I think the match will be decided by minor details so i prefer the better priced player. Alison Riske to beat Kiki Bertens at 3.06 with Marathonbet  Personally i have Riske to win this tournament at 15.00 but i post this one anyway because i think the value is on the american. Kiki is an excelent player but we all know that grass is not her best surface (she has a W/L record of 15-15). She has win against Johanna Larsson (W/L record on grass of 7-19), Arantxa Rus (13-20), Vikhlyantseva (11-10) and Rybakina (5-1) so she had an easy way (Vikhlyantseva and Rybakina have the conditions to play really well on grass but not the experience). Now she will face a player that had more wins on grass than all these players together (Riske W/L record of 72-30 on grass). Riske is on a 9 winning streak and she has win here against Muchova, Hercog, Alexandrova and Kudermetova. I have to say that Riske has a terrible record in Finals (1-6).
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