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Daily Singles, Doubles, Trebles and Trixies


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The Equaliser. You are correct, movements in the market are usually a good indication of the horse's chance. I have had a quick analysis of my bets and where the SP was shorter than the early price 53% of the selections were placed, where the SP was longer only 44% were placed.

The problem is that you don't know whether they are going to shorten or drift and if you wait for them to shorten then you lose the benefit of the early price.

I am happy to back each way at short odds where there is an extra place offered. The 5/1 cover bet is misleading as you are looking to make a profit over a series of bets not a profit on each individual bet.

 

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@MCLARKE What I meant was that if your pure mathematics showed a selection the night before being offered by the bookies on Oddschecker at say 3/1 or 4.0 and in the morning it was now being offered at say 5/1 or 6.0 then you have to be suspicious that although the odds look very tempting that something is very wrong with the selection.  The bookies don't give away odds out of the kindness of their hearts.

Also, I am a bit confused when you say about making a profit on each individual bet.  Take your selection yesterday 1.50 Worc Ben Light 7/4f £10 EW.  It finished 2nd.  Hence, I figure that you lost £10 on the win bet and gained £3.50 (1/5 x 7/4) on the place bet = a loss of £6.50 for the day.  I only mentioned 5/1 because a loss on the win bet would be covered by £10 on the place bet returning 10x 5=£50/5 = £10.  Maybe I'm missing something that you can explain?

 

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Three doubles and two treble today.

Once more into the breach

Doubles:

(1)    2.10 Yar Foad 4/1, 4.0 Red Star Shield 3/1 = £4 v ££80.00

(2)    2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory 11/4, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter 5/2= £4 v £52.48

(3)    3.30 Red Golden Parade 11/4, 7.30 Newc Tora Dorado 11/2 = £4 v £97.48  

Trebles:

(1)    2.10 Yar Foad, 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory and 4.0 Red Star Shield  £2 v £162.50

(2)    3.30 Red Golden Parade, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter and 7.30 Newc Torado Dorado = £2 v £170.62

Total stakes = £16.00

Results Update:

Only one second today so a £10 loss on the day

Original Bank £1,200.00 +£37 = £1237.00 C/Fwd

ROI = 3.08 %

 

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The Equaliser. I don't tend to look at the odds the night before because the over-round tends to be higher and there are not many races that give me the value I am after. You could well be right about horses that have drifted from the night before, if I get time I might review some races to see if there is any impact.

Apologies for the confusion, what I was trying to say is that I am not concerned about losing £6.50 on the individual bet, so long as I make a profit over a large number of bets. The individual odds are irrelevant, it is the relationship between the odds and the true chance of being placed that is important.

As an example today, my selection is Sea Of Mystery in the 3.40 at Yarmouth. The odds are 9/4 (2.25) with UNIBET, who are offering 4 places.

I calculate the chance of winning at 30%, being 2nd at 23%, 3rd at 16% and 4th at 11%.

Based on this the expected return is -2% for the win bet, -1% for the each way bet with 3 places but +7% for the each way bet with 4 places.

The 2nd favourite (at 9/1) I calculate the expected return at -8% even with the additional place.

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@MCLARKE Many thanks for your reply.  Bad luck today with Sea Of Mystery being beaten a short head.

Not sure I can work out true chances of place selections based upon assumed winning true chances. I can see that your 9/4 chance has about a 31% chance of winning (though I suspect that there is a substantial part of the over-round attached to it).  Anyway, if we had an eight horse race a week before where the first two horses finished one and two where there was just a nose to separate them and they were five lengths clear of the rest of the field , and now it is next week with the same runners lining up against each other over the same course and distance and on the same going all without penalties I can see that the first two have a true 50% chance of winning the race.  It seems obvious to me that it is highly likely that either one will win again and that the other one will finish second.  I haven't a clue on how to calculate the percentage chance of either one being 3rd or 4th.  I do appreciate that having a 4th place is better than just having a 3rd place but calculating  the percentages escapes me

     

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I developed a very complex spreadsheet that calculates the chance of each horse finishing in any position. For a 15 runner race there are 36,000 permutations. The base odds are based on the average odds from the odds-checker site.

I then take the best odds offered from those bookies offering 4 places to see if there is any edge.

Since I started this in May there have been 1,068 selections with a LSP of 44.94 points (4.2%).

If I limit the selections to those that have an edge of over 3% there have been 618 selections with a LSP of 94.03 points (15.2%).

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Five doubles at £3, One treble at £3 and one at £2e today.

Spoilt for choice today

Doubles:

(1)    1.50 San Union Rose 11/4, 4.0 San Magical Rythms 10/3 = £3 v £48.75

(2)    5.05 Sanj Delicat Kiss 5/2, 5.15 Kel Canforsd Thompson 3/1 =£3 v £42.00

(3)    4.10 Bev Reasure 11/4, 5.35 San Angels Whisper 5/2= £3 v £39.36

(4)    3.45 Yar Khuzaam 11/4, 4.45 Kel Zolfo 9/2 = £3 v £71.49

(5)    3.15 Yar Line Of Reason 4/1, 4.35 San Just The Man 9/4 = £3 v £48.75  

Trebles:

(1)    1.50 San Union Rose, 4.0 San Magical Rythms and 5.05 San Delicate Kiss = £3 v £170.61

(2)    4.10 Bev Reasure, 5.15 Kel Canford Thompson and 5.35 San Angels Whisper = £2 v £105

Total stakes = £20.00

Results Update:

One winner yesterday and nothing coupled so a £16 loss on the day

Original Bank £1,200.00 +£21 = £1221.00 C/Fwd

ROI = 1.75 %

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Four doubles at £4 and two trebles  at £2 today.

Some good class action today

Doubles:

(1)    3.40 Pont Gale Force Maya 3/1, 6.30 Chel Shimmering Dawn 3/1 = £4 v £64.00

(2)    4.0 Ayr Eva Maria 3/1, 4.30 Ayr Orange Blossom 6/1 =£4 v £112.00

(3)    2.0 Ayr Moniseur  Noir 7/1, 3.0 Ayr Barde Contiguo 9/2 = £4 v £176.00

(4)    2.30 Ayr Zoravan 5/1, 5.0 Ayr Iron Mike 6/1 = £4 v £168.00  

Trebles:

(1)    3.40 Pont Gale Force Maya, 4.0 Ayr Eva Maria and 6.30 Chelm Shimmering Down = £2 v £128.00

(2)    2.0 Ayr Monsieur Noir, 3.0 Ayr Barde Contiguo and 4.30 Ayr Orange Blossom = £2 v £616.00

Total stakes = £20.00

Results Update:

I always start my day full of hope that I will get a few winners but only one yesterday.  A very frustrating day.  Never mind I still have twelve days to show a decnt profit for September hence  a £20 loss on the day

Original Bank £1,200.00 +£1 = £1201.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

 

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Four doubles and two trebles today.

Loads of choice today in class races.  Fingers crossed?

Doubles:

(1)    2.0 Ayr Kynren  15/8 (yuk), 4.25 Ayr another Touch 9/2 £4 v £63.24

(2)    2.55 NB Mystery Power 11/4, 3.15 Ayr Orlaith 10/3 =£4 v £65.00

(3)    3.25 chlm War Glory 11/4, 4.40 Nb Fantastic Blue 5/2 = £4 v £52.48

(4)    1.25 Ayr Plymouth Rock 7/2, 5.30 Ayr Shamad 4/1 = £4 v £90.00

Trebles:

(1)    2.0 Ayr Kynren, 2.55 NBb Mystery Power, 4.25 Ayr Another Touch = £2 v £118.58

(2)    3.15 Ayr Orlaith, 3.25 Chlm War Glory and 4.40 Nb Fantastic Blue  = £2 v £118.12

Total stakes = £20.00

Results Update:

No bets yesterday so balance remains the same.

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£19 = £1181.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

 

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Three doubles and two trebles today.

Only two meetings today without much class action.

Doubles:

(1)    2.45 Plum Cubswin 3/1, 5.15 Plum Musical Stardust 9/2 £4 v £88.00

(2)    3.15 Plum Gold Mountain 10/3, 4.45 Plum Goldslinger 3/1 =£4 v £69.82

(3)    2.00 Ham Autumn Flight 11/4, 5.30 Ham Soloist 4/1 = £4 v £75.00

Trebles:

(1)    2.45 Plum Cubswin, 3.15 Plum Gold Mountain and 5.15 Plum Musical stardust  = £2 v £190.66

(2)    2.00 Ham Autumn Flight, 4.45 Plum Goldslinger and 5.30 Ham Funny Man 15/8  = £2 v £86.24

Total stakes = £16.00

Results Update:

Two winners yesterday but not coupled therefore loss of £20

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£39 = £1161.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

 

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Three doubles and two trebles today.

Loads of racing today so a lot of sifting.

Doubles:

(1)    2.55 Leic Knockabout Queen 9/4, 5.50 Ham Pioneering 7/2 = £4 v £58.48

(2)    2.45 War Manofthemountain 11/4, 7.0 Km Pesto 9 /2 =£4 v £67.48

(3)    3.50 War Working Class 10/3, Fairy Stories 9/2 = £4 v £95.32

Trebles:

(1)    2.45 War Manofthemountain, 2.55 Leic Knockabout Queen and 5.50 Ham Pioneering  = £2 v £109.68

(2)    3.50 War Working Class, 4.45 Ham Fairy Stories and 7.0 Km Pesto  = £2 v £214.50

Total stakes = £16.00

Results Update:

Not even a sniff of a winner yesterday hence a loss of £16.00

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£55 = £1145.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

 

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  • BillyHills changed the title to Daily Doubles & Trebles

Three doubles and two trebles today .

Doubles:

(1)    2.45 War Isaac Wonder 2/1, 5.25 Chelm Belle Anglaise 9/4= £4 v £39.00

(2)    3.50 War Quarenta 15/2, 7.30 Alemartalyoum  =£4 v £119..00

(3)    3.15 War Cotton End 10/3, 4.10 Kilbaha Lady 13/2 = £4 v £130.00

Trebles:

(1)    2.45 War Isaac Wonder, 3.50 War Quarenta and 5.25 Chelm Bell anglaise  = £2 v £165.74

(2)    3.15 War Cotton End, 4.10 Bev Kilbaha Lady and 7.30 Chelm Alemaratalyoum =  £2 v £227.50

Total stakes = £16.00

Results Update:

One winner yesterday at 6/1 so no doubles on the day for me hence a loss of £16.00

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£71 = £1129.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

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Three doubles and two trebles today.

Despite it being Newmarket with a lot of class action I can’t find very many great selections today.

Doubles:

(1)    1.30 Perth Guardia Top 11/4, 2.50 Pont 2.50 High Flying Bird 7/2 = £4 v £67.48

(2)    3.0 Nm Gala Force Maya 6/1, 4.45 Dramatic Device 7/2 = £4 v £126.00

(3)    2.25 Nm Light Angel  5/1, 5.50 Nm Quick 5/1 = £4 v £144.00

Trebles:

(1)    1.30 Perth Guardia Top, 2.50 Pont High Flyin Bird and 3.0 Nm Gale Force Maya = £2 v £236.24

(2)    2.25 Nm Light Angel, 4.45 Nm Dramatic Device and 5.50 Nm Quick = £2 v £324.00

= £16.00 staked

Results Update:

I ran out of time to report yesterday and hence no bets posted up.  Hence my balance remains unchanged.

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£71 + £47 = £1176.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

 

 

 

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Four doubles and two trebles today.

Another day another dollar; hopefully

Doubles:

(1)    1.50 Nm Maqsad 9/4, 5.20 Nm Data Protection 11/4 = £3 v £36.50

(2)    3.45 Worc Duke Street 4/1, 7.0 Nc Home Before Dusk 3/1 = £3 v £60.00

(3)    4.0 Hayd Proxeology 11/4, 4.55 Worc Larkbarrow Lad 5/2 = £3 v £39.36

(4)    5.10 Hayd Young fire 10/3, 5.30 Worc Dariya 6/1 = £3 v £90.99

Trebles:

(1)    1.30 Nm She’s Got You 9/2, 3.45 Worc Duke street 4/1 and 5.20 Nm Escape The City 10/3 = £2 v £228.32

(2)    4.00 HD Proxeology 4.55 Worc Larkbarrow Lad and 7.0 Nc Home Before Dusk = £2 v £105.00

= £16.00 staked

Results Update:

Two winners yesterday but not coupled so profit = £16 loss

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£40 = £1160.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

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No bets today

Some lovely class action at Market Rasen today but I have to go out so I can’t put up any selections today.

 

Results update:

Frustrating day yesterday.  Missed a double by a neck and Haydock abandoned after a few races  = £13 loss after one double had two non-runners

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£53 = £1147.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

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Three doubles and two trebles today

 

Only two meetings but there seems to be some opportunities.

 

(1)    3.45 Muss Desert Ace 9/2, 5.15 Eps Swift Approval 4/1 -£4 v £110.00

(2)    3.35 Eps I’m Available 15/8 (yuk), 4.55 Muss Donnely’s Rainbow 10/3 = £4 v £49.80

(3)    3.05 Eps Zzoro 5/2, 3.15 Muss My Ukulele 4/1 = £4 v 370

 

Trebles:

(1)    3.55 Eps I’m available, 3.45 Muss Desert Ace and 5.15 Eps Swift Approval = £2 v £158.12

(2)    3.05 Eps Zzoro, 3.15 Muss My Ukulele and 4.55 Muss Donnelllys Rainbow = £2 v £151.66

 

Results update:

 

No bets yesterday so bank balance remains the same

 

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£53 = £1147.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

 

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Three doubles and two trebles today

 

Not a lot of my type of races today and some skinny odds which I hate.  However, as it is the last day of the month I am attempting to get back into cumulative profit for the mionth

 

(1)    3.05 Bath Capriolette 10/3, 5.10 Bath Kodiak Attack 13/8 (yuk)  4/1 -£4 v £45.48

(2)    2.00 Bath Gleeds Girl 4/1, 2.20 Ham Dancing Rave 3/1 = £4 v £80.00

(3)    7.20 Wolv Acclaim The Nation 7/2, 8.20 Wolv Sea Wings 2/1 = £4 v £54.00

 

Trebles:

(1)    2.00 Bath Gleeds Girl, 3.05 Bath Capriolette and 5.10 Bath Kodiak Attack  = £2 v £113.74

(2)    2.20 Ham Dancing rave, 7.20 Wolv Accliam The Nation and 8.20 Wolv Sea Wings = £2 v £108.00

 

Results update:

 

Four seconds yesterday.  Even I’m available backed into 11/10 from 2’s was beaten 2.75 lengths.  Hence loss on the day £16

 

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£69 = £1131.00 C/Fwd

ROI = N/A

 

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Results update:

 

I always seem to find that the shorter priced selections fail me more often than the higher priced ones.  Missed out on a good double today.  Therefore £16 loss on the day

 

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£85 = £1115.00 C/Fwd  ROI = N/A

 

I only had one good win in September which at that time put me into cumulative profit.  I feel that I have been a little unlucky since that time not to have gone into profit once more.  I feel confident that the tide will turn for me in October so I will continue with doubles and trebles.

However, because there has been some controversy about whether single bets are more profitable over multiple bets I will be including some single bets alongside my doubles and trebles.

@BillyHills  I wanted to increase my balance to accommodate the extra stakes to cover the win bets but this seems to be controversial too.  This being so I will keep the brought forward balance the same at £1,115.00

I do need to monitor how well my singles win bets are performing  on their own as opposed to my multiples.  Therefore I intend to split the brought forward balance between the two.

Since the original bank was £1,200 I am going to allocate £400 towards the singles bets and leave the balance of £715 as the opening balance on my multiples account.

The effect of this is to leave scope for 3 £4 doubles and two £2 trebles = £16 for the multiples.

There is also scope for up to £8 in single win bets.  The risk is 2% in each case.  Obviously, the current deficit on the multiples account means that I am risking up to 2.24% of my betting bank until such time that the balance goes positive once more.  I am comfortable with that.

Hence the figure will be shown as follows:

Multiples: opening balance £800 less £85 = £715 brought forward

Singles:     opening balance  £400 less 0   = £400 brought forward

PLEASE NOTE I HAVE NOT CHANGED MY TOTAL BALANCE BROUGHT FORWARD FROM SEPTEMBER

I am looking forward to this new challenge and although the multiples are starting off at a proportional disadvantage I feel confident that they will overtake the singles balance proportionately in the future.

The ROI can be accurately gauged by a direct comparison between the two but one would have to double the profitability figure on the singles to compare like with like on a pure profit basis.

 

 

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Three doubles and two trebles some win bets today

 

(1)    4.20 Ayr Young Fire 11/47, 4.50 Ayr Fannie By Gaslight 13/8 =-£4 v £39.36

(2)    2.00 Sedg Jax Light 11/4, 2.10 Sou Dragon Khan 10/3 = £4 v £65.00

(3)    4.40 Sou Sandy Boy 3/1, 5.0 Sedg Dalkingstown 10/3 = £4 v £69.32

Trebles:

(1)    2.00 Sedg Jaxlight, 4.20 Ayr Young Fire and 4.510 Ayr Fannie By Gaslight = £2 v £78.74

(2)    2.10 Sou Dragon Khan, 4.40 Sou Sandy Boy and 5.0 Sedg Dalkingstown = £2 v £150.22

 

= £16.00 Staked

 

Singles bets today:

 

NB I place my bets on Betfair and get better odds but show best bookies odds as they can easily be checked)

 

3.50 Ayr Forever A Lady £2 win at 6.5 Bet Victor

5.10 Km Swell Song £2 win at 5.5 Bet 365

6.10 Km Miss Paxman £2 win at 6.0 888Sport

8.10 Km Topology £2 at 7.0 Marathon bet

 

= £8 staked

 

Results update:

 

No doubles yesterday so a loss of £16

Original Bank £1,200.00 -£85 = £1115.00 C/Fwd  ROI = N/A

 

Re-allocation of £1,115.00 to accommodate performance of multiple bets and win bets.

Multiples: opening balance £800 less £85 = £715 brought forward

Singles:     opening balance  £400 less 0     = £400 brought forward

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

@The Equaliser in relation to your single bets, I think the query was "what if you had done single bets on all your double and treble selections".

 

I think that I would have lost money.  I tend to include fancied horses towards the front end of the market for my multiples selections. The prices are therefore much shorter than the selections that I will be posting up for October and going forward. I hope this helps.

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Three doubles and two trebles and some win bets today

(1)    3.10 Hunt Phoenix Rock 3/1, 3.25 Nott Kenny The Captain 9/2 =-£4 v £88.00

(2)    1.15 Bang Outcrop 4/1, 7.10 Kem Junior Rip 7/2 = £4 v £90.00

(3)    2.55 Nott What A Business 3/1, 4.40 Hunt Transpennine Star 7/2 = £4 v £72.00

Trebles:

(1)    1.15 Bang Outcrop, 3.10 Hunt Phoenix Rock and 3.25 Nott Kenny the Captain  = £2 v £220.00

(2)    2.55 Nott What A Business, 4.40 Hunt Transpennine Star and 7.10 Kem Junior Rip  = £2 v £162.00

= £16.00 Staked

Singles bets today:

NB I place my bets on Betfair and get better odds but show best bookies odds as they can easily be checked)

3.55 Nott Firewater £2 win at 15.00 Bet365

5.15 Hunt Worldly Approach £2 win at 12.0 Bet Victor

6.40 Km Romala £2 win at 10.00 Marathonbet

8.25 Nc Arnoul Of Metz £2 win at 13 WilliamHill

= £8 staked

Results update:

 

Multiples: Yet another short priced favourite denied me of a doubles yesterday so a loss of £16

Multiples: opening balance £800 less £101 = £699 C/forward

 

Singles: No winners but one beaten a neck, hence a loss of £8

Singles:   opening balance  £400 less 8     = £392 C/forward

 

“ When placing a bet on a selection ,never take SP and, always bear in mind that to make a profit in the long run the WINNERS have to pay for the LOSERS.”

 

 

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Three doubles and two trebles and some win bets today

 

Let’s see if any of these rascals run to expectations today

 

(1)    2.35 War Flinck 11/4, 5.30 Chelm Predictable Tully 9/4 =-£4 v £48.75

(2)    4.10 War Chasma 5/1, 6.45 Wolv Mickey 7/2 = £4 v £108.00

(3)    3.50 Ling Seprani 4/1, 4.45 War Sid Hoodie 5/1 = £4 v £120.00

Trebles:

(1)    2.35 War Flinck, 4.10 War Chasma  and 5.30 Chelm Predictable Tully = £2 v £146.25

(2)    3.50 Ling Seprani, 4.45 War Sid Hoodie and 6.45 Wolv Mickey  = £2 v £270.00

 

= £16.00 Staked

 

Singles bets today:

 

NB I place my bets on Betfair and get better odds but show best bookies odds as they can easily be checked)

 

2.10 Ling Qaaddim £2 win at 13.00 Bet365

3.40 War Prabini £2 win at 10.0 Bet365

6.45 Wolv Street Poet £2 win at 10.00 Bet365

7.0 chelm Perfectimperfection £2 win at 8 WilliamHill

 

= £8 staked

 

Results update:

 

Multiples:No winners yesterday so a loss opf £16

Multiples: opening balance £800 less £117 = £683 C/forward

 

Singles: Romala beaten a neck so no winners yesterday but I am beginning to like looking for higher priced selections; however a  loss of £8 on the day

Singles:   opening balance  £400 less 16   = £384 C/forward

 

“ When placing a bet on a selection ,never take SP and, always bear in mind that to make a profit in the long run the WINNERS have to pay for the LOSERS.”

 

 

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Loads of short priced favourites today and a lot of my selections have had their prices slashed.  The bookies want it all their own way.

 

Three doubles and two trebles and some win bets today

 

(1)    4.0 Hex  Melody Of Scotland 11/4, 5.05 Hex Court Baloo 5/2 =-£4 v £52.50

(2)    2.0 Asc Tulfaaris 7/2, 2.35 Hereby 7/2 =£4 v £81.00

(3)    4.55 Asc Mubaker 10/3, 5.15 Font Bally Longford 11/4 = £4 v £65.00

 

Trebles:

(1)    2.0 Asc Tulfhaaris, 4.0 Hex Melody of Scotland and 5.05 Hex Court Baloo = £2 v £118.13

(2)    2.35 Asc Hereby, 4.55 Asc Mubaker and 5.15 Font Bally Longford  = £2 v £146.25

 

= £16.00 Staked

 

Singles bets today:

 

NB I place my bets on Betfair and get better odds but show best bookies odds as they can easily be checked)

 

2.35 Asc Sapa Inca £2 win at 13.00 888Sport

3.10 Asc Parys Mountain £2 win at 11.0 PaddyPower

3.45Asc Landa Beach £2 win at 7.0 WilliamHill

8.30 Sou Makambe £2 win at 8 WilliamHill

 

= £8 staked

 

Results update:

 

Multiples: Missed out on a double yesterday with one coming second at 9/2 hence no winners yesterday so a loss of £16

Multiples: opening balance £800 less £133 = £667 C/forward

 

Singles: One winner yesterday at 13 = £24 profit therefore after deducting  cumulative stakes £22 = £2 profit.

 Singles:   opening balance  £400 add £24 less 22   = £402 C/forward

 

 

 

“ When placing a bet on a selection ,never take SP and, always bear in mind that to make a profit in the long run the WINNERS have to pay for the LOSERS.”

 

 

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