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The Equaliser

Daily Singles, Doubles, Trebles and Trixies

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Hi Guys,

I will be posting my Trixie bets under this title from tomorrow.  It would seem that it is too confusing to mix up my "back to lay" bets and straight lay bets alongside my Trixie bets.

I will of course post up my results to date on Trixies since I started on 27th May 19.

Sorry for any inconvenience.

The Equaliser
Edited by The Equaliser
Change to add back Trixies

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TODAY’S TRIXIE SELECTIONS

3.15 Sal (1) Orliko (7/1), 4.45 Sal (7) Master Grey, 5.15 Sal (6) Little Palaver (9/2) = £4 stake with a potential return of £389.00

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No win yesterday

Original Bank £500 less £25.61 = £474.39 C/Fwd

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TODAY’S TRIXIE SELECTIONS

3.40 Font (5) Bermeo 3/1, 4.30 Yar (9)Oud Metha Bridge 9/2, 5.20 Hayd (2) Beatbybeatbybeat  4/1, £4 staked and potential return £179.48

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Awful day’s racing; no winners yesterday

Original Bank £500 less £29.61 = £470.39 Balance C/Fwd.

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TODAY’S TRIXIE SELECTIONS

2.0 Newb.   (4) Gold Souk  11/4, 4.30 Yarm (2) Marronier  11/2 and 4.40 Newb. (1) Sapa Inca 10/3   = £4 staked and potential return £174.40.  I don’t usually back unraced 2 year olds but there isn’t much class racing around today and at least the horse in a class 3 race.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

A good day yesterday with two winners and a withdrawn horse in the 3rd leg at 11/4.  I cashed out for a profit of £70.80 after the second leg.  I know that “cashing out” is not a good policy but it seemed to me that taking almost three times the return of an ordinary £1 double with odds of 5/1 and 3/1 was a good deal.  One thing I should mention is that I have the mind set to not have been bothered should the third selection had run and won and I missed out on say another £150 extra.  In fact I was disappointed that it did not run and win as I could have recorded my first Trixie win, albeit I would have posted up a smaller profit of £70.80.

The actual sequence to date is:  LLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLD where L = Lost & D = a Double win.  When I win a Trixie I will write “T”.

Original Bank £500 add £70.80 and less £29.61 = £541.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 8.2 % ROI

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TODAY’S TRIXIE SELECTIONS

2.20 Yk (13) Archie Perkins 4/1,   3.30 Yk (2) Right Action 15/2,   4.40 Yk (8) Society Queen (6/1) = £4 staked and potential return £434.48.

Reasons for selections:

Archie Perkins has been in great form and I cannot see why he shouldn’t be followed.  The likes of TImeform and Sporting Life favour the form of Sputnik Planum and Ghalib, we will just have to wait and see who is right?

Right Action drops in grade has a top Jockey aboard and seems suited by the going.

Society Queen has won over the course and distance; has won on Good to Soft so hopefully soft going will be OK

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

One winner and a third yesterday so no cigar.  The two year old flopped so lesson learned.

Original Bank £500 add £37.19 = £537.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 7.4 % ROI

 

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TODAY’S TRIXIE SELECTIONS (Two today)

First Trixie

3.15 San (3) Greenside 5/1, 5.30 Chest (5) Tor 11/4 and 5.35 Sand ((6) Just Wait 3/1 = £4 staked and potential return £151.48.

Reasons for selections:

Greenside  C&D winner, in good form and is OK on soft going.  Tor was runner up in the race last year and is running well so far this term, Just Wait a tough Mark Johnson runner who is expected to run a big race.

Second Trixie(all at York) couldn’t resist it for a £2 bet

2.25 Yk (8) Aljady 11/2, 4.40 YK (1) Markazy 4/1, and 5.15 YK (6) John Kirkup 13/2 = £2 staked with a potential return of £181.24  

 Reason for selections

Aljady has been running well and hopefully won’t come second again, Markazi should run well and hopefully there will not be much further rain and John Kircup is in form so I hope will strike while the iron is hot.  I notice a market move for number (20) Constant and, although it has winning form on soft ground it has not been running that well lately.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No winners yesterday; a 3rd, a 4th and an 8th

Original Bank £500 add £33.19 = £533.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 6.6 % ROI

Have a good day’ I know I will

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NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

I just cannot find enough selections at the kind of prices that I prefer for my Trixies today.  The only one that I found of interest was 5.0 Doncaster (9) Baristi Dancer which was trading at around 4.9 last night on Betfair and is now trading at 6.8!

Not so sure about tomorrow as I have to take my car in for a lengthy service early tomorrow morning.   I am looking forward to the Royal Ascot meeting starting on Tuesday.  

 TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No luck with both my Trixies yesterday; I was back to watch some of the races in the afternoon and struggled to get £0.89 with my back to lay efforts which are not recorded for my Trixie selection purposes.

Original Bank £500 add £27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.4 % ROI

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.30 Carl (10) Beverley Bullet 7/2, 3.45 Catt (7) John Clare 4/1, 7.10 Win (10) Sir Roderick (7/2) = £4 stake for potential return of £166.48.

Reasons for selections:

Beverley Bullet is a course winner in fine form acts on the going and is down 2lbs (There is money for Redarna courtesy of ATR and Oddschecker (always the same selections)

John Clare flopped last time but I am hoping that Catterick will suit his style of running.  Kuwait Station is strong in the market but who knows if he will cope with the underfoot conditions.

Sir Roderick is a CD winner running well and is OK on this going.  I am hoping that its price won’t get smashed but hey, I get BOG on Sportsbook don’t I?  

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No Trixie yesterday so the betting bank balance remains the same.

Original Bank £500 add £27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.4 % ROI

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY (two today)

First 2.30 Asc (9) Mustashry 11/2, , 5.0 Asc (8) Coeur De Lion 7/1, 5.35 Asc (5) Addeyb 13/2 = £4 stake with potential return £550. 72

Reasons for selections:

Mustashry. All it has to do is repeat its last performance.  Pundits are quoting the going as a reason to negate its chances.  I think it will be alright on the straight mile and the race is quite early so hopefully no downpurs.

Coeur De Lion is up 5lbs and is running well; hope the rain comes for it

Addeyb Also needs the rain to come so fingers crossed

Second: 2.55 Stra (3) Old Harry Rocks 9/2, 4.35 Thirsk (1) Dragons Voice 11/4, 5.20 Stra (1) Our Jerry 3/1 = £2 staked and potential return of £70.06

Got a feeling I should have had £1 on this and 50p on the first!

Reasons for selections

Old Harry Rocks, running well but the market isn’t strong for it

Dragons Voice in excellent form so I am hoping for a big run

Our Jerry another well thought of Irish raider; it has been penalised with a high mark but I hope its class will see it through

 

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No winners yesterday   

Original Bank £500 add £23.19 = £523.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 4.6 % ROI

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NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

I am out all day tomorrow on domestic activities and just can’t make the time to sift through the Ascot entries tomorrow; good luck with anyone who can find the winner of the 27 runner event at 2.30. Final Song looks tempting being a CD winner on soft but I think that the race is not for the faint hearted.  Good luck to all members having a crack at racing tomorrow.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

One winner and a second on the smaller Trixie yesterday and only one winner in my main Trixie, therefore no winnings for me. I was very disappointed with the running of Mustashry.   I did back Our Jerry to win and recovered all but £2 on the day but this doesn’t count.  I didn’t risk a win bet on Addeyb and obviously wish I had. None of these counts in my figures; just reporting it in case someone is feeling sorry for me.  

Original Bank £500 add £17.19 = £517.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 3.4 % ROI

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.15 Asc (3) Cape of Good Hope 9/2, 5.0 Asc (2) Motafaawit 14/1 and 5.35 Asc (1) Constantinople = £2 staked and possible return of £324.50

Cape of Good Hope is another Aiden O’Brien runner with solid credentials.

Motafaawit looks as though it will run a big race but the market doesn’t seem to like it.

Constantinople should be the class act in this race.

I haven’t had time to sort out a £1 Trixie today.

I have decided that from now on I will place a win bet if the 1st and 2nd leg loses on the 3rd leg.  I will also do this if the 1st leg loses and the second leg wins.  However, the stake should only be one point to cover the cost of the Trixie only.  Hence, for a £2 Trixie this would be £0.50 and for a £1 Trixie £1.  Hence the total stake will be 5 points.

I have the same problem I had on Wednesday for tomorrow as I got stuck in traffic on the way to my destination and had to turn back, so having another crack tomorrow.

Be back on Saturday.

Good luck to all

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No bets yesterday so the balance is the same.

Original Bank £500 add £17.19 = £517.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 3.4 % ROI

 

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Frankie Detorri having a wonderful day at Ascot.  Best of luck to him.  I am trying to lay Turgenev at 4.9 for £2.10 to recoup my Trixie bet.  Unmatched at 5.5 yet but I think I will get the price matched.  Come on Frankie, I can swallow an £8 loss but hey I would like to get my £2 back

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.05 Asc Space Blues 5/2, 3.40 Asc Defoe 3/1 , 5.35 Asc Cleonte 4/1.  + £4 staked with a potential return of £121.48

Reasons for selections:

Space Blues; I have checked out the main live contenders against him and can see no reason why he shouldn’t run a big race.

Defoe; Has been running extremely well and I prefer to back a horse with good current rather than rely on Masar who has been off the track for over a year despite Charlie Appleby’s big reputation for getting horses ready after a break.

Cleonte; is a course winner and is expected to run well at the distance; the only negative for me is that Silvestre De Sousa doesn’t have a good strike rate at Ascot.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

21/6/19 No Trixie bet so balance remains the same.

Original Bank £500 add £15.19 = £515.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 3.0 % ROI

 

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

2.30 Sou (5) Wolf Catcher 6/1, 3.35 (9) Global Tour 5/1 and 4.10 (7) Mister Universum 4/1 = £4 staked with a potential return of £317.

Reasons for selections

Wolf Catcher ran well behind Western Miller last time and the market seems to favour the latter coming out on top this time. Fortunes Hiding has a lot of weight to carry.

Global Tour is in a very open competitive race but gas been in excellent form.

Mister Universum is a Skelton horse that I think will be very competitive. I disagree with the RP when it states that 2.4f will stretch him.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

That was my closest to a Trixie since Broome let me down by ¾ of a length in the Derby.  Space Blues beaten a head so just a double for me today.  Great to see horses running up to expectations!  The return was £20 less £4 stake so a net of £16.00  

Original Bank £500 add £16 +£15.19 = £531.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 6.2.0 % ROI

The sequence of bets are as follows; I have muddied the waters a bit by some Trixies being placed at half my usual total stake of £4 being £2, however, these are the recorded results so far since 27th May 19.

LLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLLLLLD

 

During this time the bank did drop to £457.19 at its lowest level.

 

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

No Trixie today; I just haven’t made the time to work one out. Sorry.

 

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Two seconds and a non-runner so no winnings today.  I made an error with my back/lay bet on the 3rd leg which meant that I lost £1.84 on the day instead of getting out at B/E.  Never mind I have it all worked out for future Trixies.  I know that these figures don’t go on the books but they are important to me.

Original Bank £500 +£27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.40 % ROI

 

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

2.15 Bri (1) Shamson 4/1, 8.45 Newb ((7) Rose Hip 4/1, 9.00 N. Abb (5) Glanvilles Guest 7/2

Reasons for selections:

Shamson ran badly last time (I always forgive one previous poor run but not two or more) but it is a class 4 CD winner and won on good to soft and has a jockey aboard that rides well at the track.  The favourite is up 5lbs and is only a Class 5 winner

The market favours Raincall over Rose Hip but I feel that Rosehip’s form is better, we’ll see?

Glanvilles Guest is a strong market favourite to win.  The pundits are pushing Prophets Prayer 3rd to my selection last time but the market is not supporting that view.    

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No bet yesterday so the bank remains unchanged

Original Bank £500 +£27.19 = £527.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 5.40 % ROI

Edited by The Equaliser

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

3.0 Carl Redanna 4/1,3.30 Carl Club Wexford, 4.00 Carl Where’s Jeff 9/2 £4 staked potential return £255.50

Reasons for selections:

Redanna  Running well and can defy a 5lbs penalty; I don’t trust Burj although it seems to have good market support.

Club Wexford is another running very well and has 5lbd extra; I have had a back to lay bet on the stablemate Tadawol just in case that one wins.

Wheres Jeff is a clear favourite that is also running well, it should be suited by today’s going

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

A 3rd, a 2nd and the last pulled up (very strange as it dropped to even money on Betfair before that). 

Original Bank £500 +£23.19 = £523.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 4.68 % ROI

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

4.50 Nott (3) Show Palace 11/2, 5.55 Leic (8) Leo Davinci 11/4, 6.55 Leic (9) Glorious Jem 11/4 = £4 stake with a potential return of £154.22

Reasons for selections:  Very difficult to find a Trixie today

Show Palace looks like the one to be on though there is a strong market move for Atyaaf

Leo Davinci Running well and the one to beat.

Glorious Jem a bit of faith needed on the part of the trainer; I think that Stringybark Creek will burn himself up and not finish.

I have decide that should either the first or second leg produce a winner I will put in an in running  “lay” bet on the next leg (if I’m around) of £4.21 at 1.95 so as to cover my Trixie cost should the horse run well but get beat.  If the horse wins I lose £4 but I’m assured of a winning a double.  If both the first and second leg lose I will place a win bet on the third leg with a view to recovering my Trixie cost and use Back/Lay to in order to have a small chance of getting out if the horse gets narrowly beat.  These results don’t show on my Trixie bets bank.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Two unplaced selections where in both instances the trainer’s second string horse won the race!! The 3rd horse won at 5/1 ( I screwed up on a back/lay bet on Wheres Jeff and only won 66p as opposed to £4 to pay for my Trixie)

Original Bank £500 +£19.19 = £519.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 3.8 % ROI

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

5.10 Cart Our Kylie 9/2, 6.35 Newc Foolaad 7/1, 8.05 Chest Gabrial The Tiger 9/2 = £4 staked and potential return of £360.24

Reasons for selections: 

Our Kylie, Running well and Beano’s trainer does not have a good record at Cartmel

Foolaad seems to be far better off with Copper Knight at the weights and is running well

Gabrial The Tiger has a plum draw and likes Chester

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

One winner 7/1, one 2nd 7/2f (1/2L) and one unplaced

Very strange day for the Equaliser.  After getting the first winner at 7/1 I checked out the cash out on Sports Book.  They were offering £16 profit when I had 2 legs and fancied horses to go.  Yeah right! I laid Leo Davinci at 1.95 for £4.21; I was aghast that the price did not get matched.  I then laid Glorius Jem but at 2.06 in running for £4.21.  The horse drifted out to 6/1 and finished 7th.  Guess what? The price got matched and I got my £4 Trixie money back. The narrative read something like chased leaders and every chance but weakened well inside the final furlong.  I don’t understand how that got matched but I’m not complaining. 

Original Bank £500 +£15.19 = £515.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 3.0 % ROI

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

1.50 NEWC (1) STAXTON 11/2, 5.15 NEWC, (3) MUBHIJ 10/3. 5.40 YORK (4) CLAIRE UNDERWOOD 3/1 = £4 STAKED POTENTIAL RETURN £184.16

Reasons for selections: 

STAXTON, 4th last year and may win. Air Raid has lots to overcome but hats off to it if it does.

MUBHIJ  CD winner running well

CLAIRE UNDERWOOD is preferred to My Boy Sepoy who has to prove it can win up in distance

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Unseated rider 6/1, 7th 4/1 and 3rd 7/2f so nothing gained today.  At least my back to lay on Gabrial The Tiger got matched (7.4 – 5.1) to clear £4 should it win. Although the horse finished 3rd the winner was trained by the same trainer R Fahey.  This is the third time this week that a trainer’s second string has beaten my selection. Food for thought.

Original Bank £500 +£11.19 = £511.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 2.2 % ROI

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

2.35 Cart (1) Project Bluebook 3/1, 4.05 Uttox (8) The Clock is Ticking 10/3, 5.15 Uttox (4) Organdi 4/1 =£4 staked potential return £145.64

Reasons for selections: 

Project Bluebook Up 4lbs but I think it will run well on this sharp course; has run well at Chester

The Clock is Ticking well supported in the market; Brave Eagle up 8lbs

Organdi again has good market support and most of the main experts expect a good run.

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

Even I was excited at the start of the 5.40 race at York having secured a double on the first two legs of my Trixie today.  For anyone interested, after the first leg won Cash out on Sportsbook was offering £17.96 profit and after the second leg it was offering £69.94 versus a net profit of £224.75 hence I stayed in hoping for my first Trixie win.  Not to be though and, although my horse was 11/4F it finished 5th.  Never mind the net double paid £31.42 so I can’t complain.

Original Bank £500 +£11.19 + £31.42 = £542.61 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 8.5 % ROI.  Not great returns for my first month but nonetheless my bank wouldn’t give me that would they?  

LLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLLLLLDLLLLLD is the sequence of losers and four doubles.  The lowest balance remains at £457.19 which ironically equates to about 8.5% off £500.

Pity I didn’t get the Trixie in for £227 I would have loved to increase my Trixie stakes from a total of £4 to £6.  Another day awaits I’m sure.

Meanwhile, I am hoping to increase my winning strike rate through better racing analysis.

 

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

Despite the sequence outlined below, I have enough confidence to inject an extra £2k into my Trixie project.  This means a total of £20 Trixie per day with 4 legs at £5.   I will continue with my Back to lay bets at the rate of £10 per stake.  This may not necessarily be the 3rd leg of the Trixie if there are no winners on the first two legs as the difference in the numbers of click on the lower priced selections can be substantial. So, let’s now turn up the heat.

 Possibly, on weekdays there may be no Trixie as you know I like to stake on the quality races where the form is more reliable (Sovereign in the Irish Derby )haha).

I’m giving it a go.

LLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLLLLLDLLLLLDL is the sequence of losers and four doubles.  The lowest balance remains at £457.19 which ironically equates to about 7.65% off £500.

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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

TRIXIE SELECTIONS SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

Despite the sequence outlined below, I have enough confidence to inject an extra £2k into my Trixie project. 

I don't get it. If you had confidence in your system why didn't you begin with the extra £2k and not introduce it when you're going through an indifferent patch? Sounds like impatience and indiscipline to me. I take it you've thoroughly researched the results of past trixies?. If you haven't, I wouldn't "inject" anything more into it if I was you.

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Well Sir,

I have tested the method for a month and that gives me the confidence.  Further, if there is any time to raise the stakes it has to be now whilst horses should be running according to form.  I may have to reconsider the strategy when I get to September and beyond when we see the large field nurseries on the flat and the changeover to the jumps.  

I hope this helps?

Edited by The Equaliser

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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY

4.30 PONTE (6) SMILE A SMILE 5/2, 7.45 WIN (8) EQUITATION 9/4, 8.30 CATT (7) EPONINA 9/4 = £20 staked with a potential return of £351.40 Prices are a bit skinny atm but I hope that BOG ensures a better return.  Ideally, I would like to see at least £500 for a £20 stake

Reasons for selections

SMILE A SMILE Up 6lbs but a good run is expected from the Johnston horse

 EQUITATION CD Winner, up slightly in class but should go well

EPONINA I feel that this one will run better than Rux Ruxx   

I have made a tiny £2 back to lay on (5) Casement in the 4.30 AT 26 with a lay bet at 15.00 in running for £20.90.

I will consider a back/lay bet on Eponina should the first two legs of the Trixie lose

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

One 2nd, one 7th and a non-runner

Original Bank £542.61 -£4 = £538.61 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 7.7% ROI. CASH INJECTION AS ADVISED = £2.000 therefore Balance at 1/7/19 = £2,538.61 ROI N/A

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