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2019 US Open

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With the PGA being won by Brooks Koepka less than a month ago, we are already just days away from the next major in the form of the US Open. The iconic Pebble Beach is a world renowed golf course that pretty much every player would want to play on. The US open has not been held here for nearly 10 years. McDowell won this even last time it was, back in 2010.Tiger destoryed the field here back in 2000 with a -19 finish but other than that freak of nature, you would expect a score around +1 to -4 would win this.

You will be suprised to know that Koepka won this last time out and indeed won it the time before that, so he comes here bidding for a hat-trick at the US Open and a hat-trick of majors in a row. Last year he won this +1 for the tournament.

Rory McIlroy will be on alot of peoples minds after destroying the Canadian Open last week. He came in to joint-favourite with Koepka after that win. If you like Rory, you could have got him as big as 16s during that event. Dustin Johnson is our third place in the betting and then Tiger. It's 16s bar after that.

I don't think this course is like so many others in the fact you don't need to be huge to win this event or to get a massive advantage. So infact i don't think there is any value in the top 3 atall. I already have Tiger Woods and Cantlay for this which I took a week or two ago. I want a golfer here that is a real good putter and who know his way around pebble beach. Granted, Cantlay may not have won a major before. He has played at Pebble beach before though and he comes here with fantastic form. Especially putting.

My trio will be Patrick Cantlay, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott & Brandt Snedeker.

Patrick I've menetioned. Tiger Woods is a master here (winner in 2000) and ofcourse in solid form himself. You only have to look at his final round a couple of weeks ago. Adam Scott looks to be getting his game together well and were it not for Cantlays amazing final round, he would surely have got himself a win there and finally Snedeker I am keeping faith with from last week. His putting is looking very good right now and as mentioned i want a good putter in and around here. Snedeker has a good record at Pebble.

3pts E/W T.Woods to win US Open 12/1 bet365 [8 places]
2pts E/W P.Cantlay to win US Open 18/1 Paddypower [10 places] (backed at 28s 5 places e/w bet365)
1pt E/W A.Scott to win US Open 30/1 betfair [10 places]
1pt E/W B.Snedeker to win US Open 50/1 betfair [10 places]

 

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Stats & Info

This is the sixth time Pebble Beach has hosted the US Open, and 13th Open hosted in California.

Eight holes ranked inside the Top 50 in difficulty on TOUR in the 2010 US Open.

Pebble Beach has hosted 12 USGA championships, including five U.S. Opens and five U.S. Amateurs, and was the site of the 1977 PGA Championship.

While the course is in the same location and the name is the same, expect Pebble Beach to look a tad different than when we annually see it at the AT&T Pro-Am event. The USGA has narrowed the fairway, dosed some Rogaine off the short grass to thicken up that rough, and they’ve crated run-off areas which should allow wayward shots to plunge into the Pacific if they catch the slope just right. Pebble will play as a Par 71 instead of 72 for the US Open and has been lengthened by about 300-400 yards, depending on the set up that day. The second hole has been transformed from a 520-yard Par 5 into a daunting 516-yard Par 4, one of three Par 4s measuring over 495 yards. The other eight Par 4s fall under 445 yards.

Rory McIlory, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Graeme McDowell, Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson, Lucas Glover and Tiger Woods have missed the cut at the US Open in their past two starts.

In the 2010 US Open, only eight players managed to hit more than 60% of their greens in regulation. In 2000 it was even more dire; only three players got over the 60% hump. 

Unless someone goes full 2000-Tiger and runs away with a double-digit victory, the winning score should be in the realm of even par, and it’s going to be impossible to linger around that number without an elite short game.

Four of the past five US Open winners at Pebble Beach Tiger Woods (2000), Tom Kite (1992), Tom Watson (1984), and Jack Nicklaus (1972) all had won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am previously in their careers. And Graeme McDowell had T8 finish to his credit. (source Draftkings)

Trends (betfair)

  • 10 of last 10 were aged 32 or under
  • 8 of last 10 were ranked in world's top 30
  • 10 of last 10 had played in at least 1 US Open
  • 9 of last 10 had posted a top 20 in a US Open
  • 10 of last 10 had posted a top 3 earlier that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had made the cut in their previous major
  • 9 of the last 10 US Open winners had previously won on the PGA Tour
  • 8 of the last 10 US Open winners had made the top 8 in one of their previous three starts
  • 7 of the last 10 US Open winners didn't play the week before

Jordon Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama would fit those trends

:ok

 

 

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Fairly simple strategy for me - 4 experienced sorts who come into the tournament in great-nick and importantly have real confidence off the tee and on the greens. 

Woods 12/1, Schauffele 28/1, Scott 33/1 and Simpson 50/1 

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My bets:

Outright:  D.Johnson EW 9/1 Betfred (8 places)
1st Round: J.Spieth EW 33/1 Betfair (8 places)
Winning Score: 280 and over 7/4 bet365
Hole In One : NO 11/10 bet365
Nationality Of Winner : USA 4/6 bet365

Top Players (bet365)

English : J.Rose 5/2
Aussie : J.Day 9/5
Amateur : Chin An Yu EW 5/1 (top 4)
European: Molinari EW 12/1 (top 4)

 

:ok



 

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Tiger Woods best chance at a major was at Augusta. No rough to speak of and no punishment for bad driving. Woods missed plenty of fairways there and was never punished. On 13 he drove it in the creek left and got a miraculous break.

No such thing at a USA open. You miss a fairway and you will struggle to make par. So straight driving and fairways hit are key.

If you can add length to straight driving and fairways hit, you are in the pound seats, as there are 4 par 5's. So a guy like Molinari may hit a lot of fairways, but will do better on a par 70 course with 2 par 5's (Woods is 64th on PGA tour in driving accuracy).

So for me that definitely rules Woods out. He just will not hit enough fairways.

Woods will be lucky to make the cut. Last time at Pebble he got 2 incredible breaks with the weather, when the rest of the top contenders had two horrendous weather days. 

PGA tour stats

1 1 Jim Furyk 53 74.81 499 667
2 2 Chez Reavie 67 74.55 624 837
3 3 Ryan Armour 66 73.01 671 919
4 4 Ryan Moore 54 72.68 548 754
5 5 Justin Harding 31 72.32 243 336
6 7 Henrik Stenson 46 71.97 380 528

 

Second column is fairways hit (PGA tour). So for me I'm putting Furyk and Stenson in the mix. It seems like Rory has found his way again (he took out 3 Iron and put another wedge in the bag in Canada). SO I'll go with those 3. 

 

Edited by neilovan

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MY THOUGHTS AND BETS

Best Bet- 2 or more holes in one 2/1.

Safest E/w bet- Spieth- 22/1 8places.

Quirky but talented- Fowler e/w 28/1 8places.

Major winner in waiting- Matsuyama 35/1 e/w 8places.

In form player at a price-Lowry 66/1 e/w 8places

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1st round leader

1pt e/w D.Johnson 18/1 paddypower (8 places)
1pt e/w P.Mickleson 50/1 paddypower (8 places)
0.5pt e.w S.Lowry 55/1 bet365 (6 places)
0.5pt e.w b.snedeker 55/1 bet365 (6 places)
0.25pt e.w c.morikawa 225/1 unibet (7 places)

Mix of good form and players that have started well in majors.can't wait for this now. I'll also take McIlroy and Rahm to miss the cut. I'm currently trying to find a double of both of those to miss the cut. 

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very much a mug bet gamble ofcourse but :

0.5pts B.Watson/R.McIlroy/J.Rahm all to miss cut 45/1 bet365

Just based on Bubbas awful recent form and the fact you wont need to be bombing it down the ground at this event. Not entirely sure Rory will have a great event here meaning he needs to take more chances. Rahms temperament will be in question when he isnt making greens.

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