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BillyHills

Racing Chat - Wednesday June 5th

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4.00 Fontwell

I was debating last night about putting Hidden Charmer up, but what has tipped the balance is the fact he is being backed this morning so I am making him a bet. If he repeats his Ludlow win then I think he has a really good chance here. Granted he was disappointing in a point after that although I don't think he wants 3m and I would ignore his run at Cheltenham last time as he had no chance of beating the 1st or 2nd and the soft ground wouldn't have been to his liking either. I don't think he's chucked off his mark, but based on that Ludlow win I think he is capable of winning off 118. The favourite is obviously in good form, but there has to be a doubt about him staying this far. If Miles To Milan drifts then he is unlikely to be winning based on the yard he comes from, Not A Role Model went close in this last year, but is 7lbs higher and needs to come on from his seasonal return and Master Burbridge was running well enough when last seen although without looking like winning. It looks a winnable race and with the market support I am happy to back Hidden Charmer at 9/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair and 8/1 everywhere else.

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12 minutes ago, Striker said:

7.45 Kempton..without the Fav

Desert Wind @ 5-2  Bet 365

Stable are shrewd placers of this type of horse

Would it not be better value backing it to win at 4/1, or do you think it's better value to back without the fav at 5/2?

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Sometimes it will be, but in this case I had the race only between the two horses...so the bet at the then posted Odds was the 5-2 on Desert to be in the first two.

Obviously with the benefit of hindsight the bet was the outright at 9-2! But trust me this play pays off more often than not 

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