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1 hour ago, matrixman said:

Hey guys,dont post much but I have Strycova at 40-1 to win her quarter and 500-1 to win it.Looking at the grass ELO ratings she is a strong player on grass which is why I made these bets.She should be favored over mertens IMO.Just curious as to what your opinions are on her chances to progress.

thanks

 

There are a few reasons why I bet Strycova at +130 over Mertens.  First, I watch a ton of women's tennis (it's the only sport I bet on)  and will even attend the last 3 rounds of wimbledon live in person.  I've seen both of these ladies play live more than once as well.   Strycova has been on fire since her grass season began in Birmingham with only 1 bad performance at Eastbourne against Hercog where she had to retire as she was feeling like crap and Hercog was super tricky in a rainy court.  If you watched Strycova's last match against Bertens, particularly the last set, you'll see that she is bringing a ton of hustle and variety to her game right now.  Mertens on the other hand, barely got by an out-of-form Qiang Wang in her last set and really just kept the ball in play and let an injured opponent err.

 

Honestly, I think Mertens is a fine player but really hasn't impressed me a lot lately.  She's a typical euro player who can rally and such but lacks depth and I think at +130 it's a price I can't walk away from.


2 other good underdog bets I have are Zhang Shuai at +165 and Martic at +110.  I would not be suprised to see 3-0 with these 3 underdog picks for tomorrow.


As always, good luck - MDLP

 

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15 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Personally, I think Zhang is a shrewd pick as well, no reason to have her as such a big underdog.

Well don't get me wrong, Yastremska is a great talent in the making but I watched her last match very carefully and think she'll go off the rails a bit too much against Zhang.  Honestly, Yastremska didn't even play well against Golubic.  

On the other hand, Zhang showed great reserve coming back against a solid Wozniacki (ok not in perfect form but still great).  Zhang actually look scary-good in that last set.  This matchup could have Zhang as a dog, but not more than +110.  The price is on Zhang as +EV no doubt.

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Don't worry, better times are coming with the American tournaments :ok.

 

What are your thoughts on Martic/ Svitolina?  You think Svit should be a favorite over such an in form player at the moment?

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1 hour ago, mdlp said:

After getting past Mertens however, I think you might wanna bet on the other side at the quarterfinals because Strycova probably won't get past Kvitova who will most likely be too much for Konta tomorrow:)

Oh yes, I will be hedging for sure if this happens..

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Svitolina/Martic looks like an absolute coin-flip to me. Verdasco probably takes a set, but it's hard to see him winning, Goffin has enough stamina. Berrettini should've lost against Diego, I had a small punt on Diego in-play and he failed to convert three match points, two were big serves, but one was Berrettini essentially painting the line with a last gasp shot. That should energize him, but Federer should be more clinical than Diego (and also get many more free points on serve), so it's either 3-0 or 3-1 imo.

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Hey guys. Any chance of Verdasco and Sandgren winning a set in their matches as their opponents are not that unbeatable on grass 

Also what about Gauff and Konta producing the most aces as Halep does not get that many in her matches Kvitova maybe is carrying an injury 

And which of the female matches will go to a third set as i think Sviotlina and Martic have got three sets written all over it or am i wrong. And maybe the Konta Kvitova match could be an absolute classic 

Edited by owenclass
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I like a quite few for today. 😉

N Djokovic vs U Humbert, over 27.5 games@1.952 with Pinnacle

I already had a similar bet vs Hurkacz and Ugo had shown much more in first week. Ugo is serving very well but has a solid ground strokes also. I expect at least 3 close sets, however even 2 are more than enough to win this bet. 

E Svitolina vs P Martic, Elina @1.884 with Pinnacle

Although Petra is in great form, I rate Elina much more. She has enough experience for the last rounds of tournaments compared to her rival. If Petra don't choke like in RG vs Vondruseva, maybe she could take this, but at this price I am more than happy to take it. 

S Williams vs CSN, over 19games @2.0 with Pinnacle

I would not bet that is time for Serena to pack her bags, however I do expect that she will be on a test with the Spaniard. Serena is not playing anything special except her big serve (and her name), the things Georges couldn't past through. CSN is yet to take a set from Serena, however last encounter was 4y ago. Even with 1 set on a difference, this bet should be spot on. 

 

 

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19 hours ago, mdlp said:

 

There are a few reasons why I bet Strycova at +130 over Mertens.  First, I watch a ton of women's tennis (it's the only sport I bet on)  and will even attend the last 3 rounds of wimbledon live in person.  I've seen both of these ladies play live more than once as well.   Strycova has been on fire since her grass season began in Birmingham with only 1 bad performance at Eastbourne against Hercog where she had to retire as she was feeling like crap and Hercog was super tricky in a rainy court.  If you watched Strycova's last match against Bertens, particularly the last set, you'll see that she is bringing a ton of hustle and variety to her game right now.  Mertens on the other hand, barely got by an out-of-form Qiang Wang in her last set and really just kept the ball in play and let an injured opponent err.

 

Honestly, I think Mertens is a fine player but really hasn't impressed me a lot lately.  She's a typical euro player who can rally and such but lacks depth and I think at +130 it's a price I can't walk away from.


2 other good underdog bets I have are Zhang Shuai at +165 and Martic at +110.  I would not be suprised to see 3-0 with these 3 underdog picks for tomorrow.


As always, good luck - MDLP

 

Happy w winning 2/3 underdogs here.  Svitolina really looks to be back in hot form!

Crazy I didn't bet Riske against Barty:(

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YTD 2-1, 1.95 units.

 

My only bet tomorrow is Allison Riske +296 on bookmaker for a single unit. Betting is all about the price and i think this is too much to pass on.  Yes it's serena, I know etc etc...But this is destiny for Riske who played lights out against Barty and has a lot more matches on grass than Serena in 2019.  I'm going to pass on the other 3 matches although I haven't yet watched Zhang Shuai's match yet(about to in a bit).  I just have a hard time going against Halep who has such a correct mindset going into tomorrow.

I think Svitolina is hot and should get through but I've been doing this too long to lay -220 against Muchova.  Also, don't want to fade Konta right now while also don't want to pay -230 against Strycova who will grind her little heart out tomorrow.

Good luck to us all!  

Edited by mdlp
needed to remove a decimal in the price. meant +296 not 2.96
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Actually, I'm going to go against my initial hesitation and also add a single unit on Zhang vs Halep at +406 on bookmaker.  Halep will probably disappoint me but I don't think +406 is fair, it should be closer to the +280ish mark.  GL to us all! Let's go Riske and Zhang!

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3 hours ago, ogii55 said:

Zhang (+1.5 sets) vs Halep 2.43 Pinnacle

Zhang is playing her best GS tournament. She is doing very well. H2H is 2:1 for Zhang, who won the last two matches between them. I think that she will be capable to take a least a set. 

This is probably the smarter bet but I'm gunning for Zhang to get the win at >4:1  :---)

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15 hours ago, mdlp said:

YTD 2-1, 1.95 units.

 

My only bet tomorrow is Allison Riske +296 on bookmaker for a single unit. Betting is all about the price and i think this is too much to pass on.  Yes it's serena, I know etc etc...But this is destiny for Riske who played lights out against Barty and has a lot more matches on grass than Serena in 2019.  I'm going to pass on the other 3 matches although I haven't yet watched Zhang Shuai's match yet(about to in a bit).  I just have a hard time going against Halep who has such a correct mindset going into tomorrow.

I think Svitolina is hot and should get through but I've been doing this too long to lay -220 against Muchova.  Also, don't want to fade Konta right now while also don't want to pay -230 against Strycova who will grind her little heart out tomorrow.

Good luck to us all!  

Good luck, i hope you lose this one as I'm on Serena. When around 1.33 odds, Serena has an 11-0 record on grass. That's good enough for me. 

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21 hours ago, mdlp said:

YTD 2-1, 1.95 units.

 

My only bet tomorrow is Allison Riske +296 on bookmaker for a single unit. Betting is all about the price and i think this is too much to pass on.  Yes it's serena, I know etc etc...But this is destiny for Riske who played lights out against Barty and has a lot more matches on grass than Serena in 2019.  I'm going to pass on the other 3 matches although I haven't yet watched Zhang Shuai's match yet(about to in a bit).  I just have a hard time going against Halep who has such a correct mindset going into tomorrow.

I think Svitolina is hot and should get through but I've been doing this too long to lay -220 against Muchova.  Also, don't want to fade Konta right now while also don't want to pay -230 against Strycova who will grind her little heart out tomorrow.

Good luck to us all!  

YTD 2-3 at -0.05 units.  Next picks:

1-Svitolina over Halep  at +180   on 5 dimes - 5 unit bet

2-Strycova over Serena at   +325 on 5 dimes - 1 unit bet

I think Svitolina wins the whole thing most likely.  Her first legit shot at a slam and Halep's simple ways won't work against her variety and hunger.  Hoping strycova can continue and Serena shows up like she sometimes can...stale:)

 

GL!

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Parlay at 29.14 with Unibet

Roy Smith to beat Michael Mmoh at 5.00

Backing Roy to win this because Michael is in such a bad form. 

Thiago Monteiro to beat Gianluca Mager at 1.74

Thiago is the better player here and I like how he played on grass lately. Now it's on his favorite surface clay again and I have to give the edge to Thiago. They have also met once and it was this season and Thiago won in 3 sets pretty comfortable.

Johanna Larsson to beat (-1.5 sets) Arantxa Rus at 3.35

Johanna as small underdog in Båstad? Why is my first question. Johanna is great at home in Båstad and she's beaten Arantxa two times already on clay in straight sets 10 years ago but I don't see what has changed since then. Johanna has gone down this season and currently owns a ranking of 166 but her current ranking will only make her play better. She's at home and has the tools to win this match in 2 sets.

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15 hours ago, matrixman said:

Well strycova came through for my quarter bet at 40-1.I also have her at 500-1 to win the whole thing.I dont know how Im going to hedge that or how much.Prob get Serena at +150 to win it now.Advice?

Very well done, that was an outstanding bet. 👍

I would definitely be hedging now. I think Serena will be too much for her in the SF. If they'd met in the first few rounds, I'd give Strycova a big chance with style of game and the variety she has. But I've been watching SW closely in her matches and she's improving with each match. She's still a slow mover and thats her weakness, but her serve is getting more consistent, and her returns are on fire (have you watched her in the mixed doubles? - she is literally carrying Murray in those matches, and her returns are on fire). 

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Bautista Agut (-5.5) v Pella @ 1.65 with SportingBet

Bautista-Agut has somewhat slipped under the radar at this tournament. He has not dropped a set this tournament and has breezed through to the quarter-finals. His opponent, Guido Pella, came back from 2-0 against Raonic and might be feeling the effects of a 5-setter. In addition, Bautista-Agut has a 2-0 against Pella, and in many of the sets he won against Pella, he won 6-1 or 6-0.

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My Predictions for the QF:

Federer vs Nishikori under 40.5 Games @ 1.4 with bet365

If both players play as they did so far, i dont think that nikishori even gets one set and in case he does and wins with a break, i think Roger will win one set at least with two breaks which comes in favor of the under games. Although Nishikori played a pretty good tournament, he showed against Kukushkin that he is vulnerable when the opponent gets persistent with the shots, which roger should execute mercilessly as we saw against berrettini and pouille.

 

Nadal vs Querrey Win Nadal and over 32.5 Games @ 2 with bet365

Due to Querrey being a good server i think that Nadal wont smash like 6-2 6-3 6-2 or somethink like that. It will be longer sets with a possible tie break which could lead Querrey to win a set but in total i dont think that Querrey will be able to break Nadal often and Nadal as a good Returner should get the possibility of a break more often. 

 

Djokovic vs Goffin Djokovic to win in straight Sets @ 1,5 with bet365

Since the last game i think that djokovic is fully in his game and reached his peak with good recovery time while goffin had more struggle in his journey even if his perfomance wasnt inconsistent or whatsoever. We saw that his Capability against big opponents like Federer lacks though losing the second set 6-1 in Halle few Weeks ago. I dont think that the result will be much more different with Novak

 

Agut vs Pella , Agut Win @ 1.2 with bet365

Agut is one of the players i trust the most in this GS. He never lost a set even against tougher opponents and has a solid baseline game which will be the key for me in this game to force pella to do mistakes. Considering the exhaustion of Pella who had 10 full power sets in the last two games I think the more experienced Agut will have at least a 3-1 win against Pella.

 

 

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Close but no cigar.

When Querrey broke back to make it 5-5, I thought the TB was in the bag.  Nadal just too good.

He's playing really well at the moment, better than Federer from what I've seen, but I'd still make Fed slight fav on grass. Market has Nadal fav tho, so maybe a little value there if you fancy Fed. But since I'm on Rafa outright I won't be having a bet on the win market.  I'm looking for another TB bet instead, these 2 have a history of TBs, and I'm convinced we'll see a least 1 in this match. Lets see what the layers are offering.

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