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1 hour ago, Blackroses said:

Not playing on grass didnt seem to hurt Collins. Siegemund can play great defense and has a nice BH slice, likes to attack and has power. GL but I'm going the other way on this one. 

I also think with the courts playing slower Parmentier is going to play Smashova close and even win. I'm going for the upset! +385

 

Also think Bouchard is being written off against an overrated Zidansek. 

These early rounds it's smarter to parlay favorites but these are just a couple of the upsets that I like. I'm parlaying several pairs, will try and post when I finish organizing them.

 

Bouchard

Parmentier

Two extremely unpopular plays.

Collins played almost a set last week on grass, and last year reached the third round at Eastbourne and lost to Kerber and Mertens on grass. Slightly better than no matches at all three years. 

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Hi guys,

Which one of two seems more reliable to you?

Basilashvili to beat Ward?

Kyrgios to beat Jordan?

I feel that both of them will win. I don’t get why so high odds on georgian. Yes, he comes from a 4 loses in row but, still, Ward is 195 ATP. 

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1 hour ago, vvararu said:

Hi guys,

Which one of two seems more reliable to you?

Basilashvili to beat Ward?

Kyrgios to beat Jordan?

I feel that both of them will win. I don’t get why so high odds on georgian. Yes, he comes from a 4 loses in row but, still, Ward is 195 ATP. 

I'm personally on Thompson due to reasons outlined here. Thompson really isn't that bad and the temperamental nature of Nick will always mean there is a chance for an upset. 

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Just now, South_African_Punter said:

I'm personally on Thompson due to reasons outlined here. Thompson really isn't that bad and the temperamental nature of Nick will always mean there is a chance for an upset. 

What do you think on the second match? 

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The first option that came to my mind for today is Ons Jabeur to beat P. Kvitova @3,50 uni

Kvitova started to hit the ball only on Saturday after many weeks sidelined with elbow injury. So far it's ok - she doesn't feel pain, but still - it's very short time to get back in form.

She doesn't have big expectations ""The racquet I just [picked up] a few days ago. I couldn't really hit much. If I have a pain, I'm stopping immediately, but so far it's okay."

if it weren't Wimbledon: ""Maybe if it was just a normal week, I [would] take one more extra week [off], but then I think it's fine," 

"We'll see how everything will go. Like now, of course, I'm relaxed. I'm not really happy that I didn't have my best preparation what I could have for the grass season.

"I think from the past I learn a lot about me. Sometimes I don't really have to hit for so many hours to be prepared." - I think that's the only positive for Kvitova's "preparation" for 2019 WImbledon

Ons Jabeur, though missed SF in Eastbourne with ankle injutry, beat Konta (!) and Cornet earlier. So - giving up a SF before the match - I think it was only a precaution before WImbledon and not some serious injury. And her game on grass looks very good, she likes it and I think Kvitova will be in much troubles today.

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Thanks @kempazzo for writing that, it's basically the thinking behind my bet on Williams over Kvitova. Jabeur has some issues as well and that's why I preferred that bet over a bet on Jabeur, but I hope that Jabeur can deliver for the sake of us both.

About Basilashvili - I was mightily impressed by him last year and he brought me big profits there, but there have been only shades of him so far in this season. I liked him against Djokovic in Doha, that's where I thought he could repeat some of those 2018 performances, but nothing has happened since then.

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10 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

About Basilashvili - I was mightily impressed by him last year and he brought me big profits there, but there have been only shades of him so far in this season. I liked him against Djokovic in Doha, that's where I thought he could repeat some of those 2018 performances, but nothing has happened since then.

Yes, agree. I just hope his shade of himself will be enough to deal with Ward.

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1 hour ago, South_African_Punter said:

Probably Basilashvili just because Ward is so low on the rankings but Basilashvili isn't that good on grass.

Grass is Basilashvilli's weakest surface for sure, but he's won matches on grass including victories against the likes of Feli Lopez. Basically he's used to playing at a far higher standard and against far superior players than Ward who shouldn't even be here.  I think he should be much shorter price so I'm backing the Georgian with confidence.

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Week 1, Tuesday: shorties acca:

Yesterday, someone ask for an acca ~EV.

Anyway, I'm going to give it a shot today. Maybe we could do a daily acca section?

4x, pays ~2/1 all PP odds:

Kygiros 4/11; Cilic 2/7; Sloane Stephens 1/3; Muguruza 4/11

 

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Mannarino @3.50 seems ok for me vs struggling Cilic. Form of these two is on opposite directions, as Mannarino collected Hertogenbosch title, while Marin's lost in his favourite London to Schwartzman (!). Mannarino is a grass-court monster IMO, if You take style of play.. he was born to do it. He faces another grass specialist, but out-of-form, without confidence and, for now, it's rather just a name, not a top player anymore. 

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There are a few other matches I'm thinking of getting involved into, but due to lazyness will take only one-sentence reasoning:

Querrey @2,35 - after returning from injury he's splashinig aces as crazy. Good form, good play for grass. Thiem without grass match practice will have hard time to adjust to conditions vs aggressive player that shouldn't give him rythm.

Pavluchenko +1,5set @2.10 - great odds, as Pavluchenkowa was able to take at lease one set in all 4 previous meetings of these two. Have to admit she's without match practice on grass,but odds justify that. Bencic can play well on grass, but it's WTA, so mental collapses happen often.

Maria +1,5set @3.05 - Maria has the game for grass, as well as Kerber, but - again - it's WTA - where amazing happens. With clever play Maria can be a pain in the ass for Kerber, as she's not a modern ball-basher, but an intelligent "oldschool" player.

I have also a hunch that Tomic can make good things vs Tsonga with good return and being a grass-player; Riske-Vekic - very good match-up in terms of grass quality - should be taken live, if there's even better odds for Riske than @2.50; Berankis is a typical player for fast surfaces with low bounce (inddor or grass), so he can also take at least a set vs Shapovalov, who's got a big swing and sometimes can spread errors generously;

For a combo I think I'd go with: Pouille, J. Souza, Fritz, Baghdatis (starting now) @3.06

Good Luck!

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Yeah, you get such info sometimes even if you aren't an insider, but only like two or three times a year. If you're actually on the tour, it's much easier. On another note, I'm happy that Alexandrova didn't botch it from 6-2 *1-0 up...oh wait.

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Rybarikova to beat Gauff at 1.54 @ Pinnacle looks alright to me. I mean Gauf wasn't THAT good against Venus who made 26(!!) unforced errors in that match. Rybarikova isn't fading away like Venus, she managed to beat Sabalenka neatly yesterday and I believe the good form will continue here. It's also a huge mental challenge for Gauf to be able to come back after a huge victory against your idol. Small to medium stakes because it's WTA we are talking about here after all :)

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Thinking about that match as well, especially for match-up reasons. Against Venus, it was all about out-hitting each other. Rybarikova has way more variety and that's something that Gauff might not be ready to adapt to. I was expecting a tad higher odds though I have to say.

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