Announcements
** Nap's Competition Result : 1st Barnsley Chop, 2nd Daisychain, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert, 4th Marmalade, KO Cup Tipsterix, Most Winners Calva Decoy**
**June Poker League Result : 1st Autogree £75, 2nd Rivrd £45, 3rd Ian309 £30**
CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - June 17 - June 23

Recommended Posts

Hello, guys!

Let me just add 5 cents into the discussion: while developing value radar i've took into consideration 100 000 matches and the outcome was that WTA matches are non profit at all. And also i was looking some video on youtube about backing the server trading strategy (on betfair) and the guy who explained it also told to use only ATP matches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm making a follow up post to my initial one regarding the Herbert - Federer match.. I'm having second thoughts about this for particular superstition reasons, and I'm not going to place any amount larger than the initial sample bet I took with Pierre.. I may end up trying to buy my way out of this bet.. We'll see.. Just fair warning , I'm looking at other options instead and hope everybody has a winning day tomorrow... Should be atleast one highly profitable wager available. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As good as Herbert has been playing theres no way he will beat Fed.. he just doesn't have the tools or the game to win. Even a Federer playing poorly is way too much for Herbert. I actually think the odds are pretty short and would have thought it should be something closer to 13.00.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's time for Berrettini to call it a day. He's been brilliant lately, but I think Goffin is smart and skilled enough to defeat him. Also, Goffin's profile is somewhat similar to Simon (who beat weaker version of Berrettini 3:0 in Wimbledon last year), also Seppi has made most problems for Mateo and Goffin is able to perform in Seppi's style and in better way overall.

Goffin beat tall strong server with average movement on grass - A. Zverev yesterday - and it's a great way to be prepared for Berrettini.

I was on Seppi, I gotta be on Goffin. You can find him @2,70 Unibet and it's much worth it IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also think +1,5 set hc on Gilles Simon is worth trying. Tall Medvedvev daesn't convince me on grass with his movement and big swing. Simon can play on grass quite well and should move the Russian on court to push him into errors. Big serve of Russian should be opposed by Simon's return that was tested yesterday by Mahut, so the Frenchmen should be prepared for that.

I think odds for Simon are huuuge

set @2.45 Pinacle and even ml @5.34 looks good in my eyes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, kempazzo said:

I think it's time for Berrettini to call it a day. He's been brilliant lately, but I think Goffin is smart and skilled enough to defeat him. Also, Goffin's profile is somewhat similar to Simon (who beat weaker version of Berrettini 3:0 in Wimbledon last year), also Seppi has made most problems for Mateo and Goffin is able to perform in Seppi's style and in better way overall.

Goffin beat tall strong server with average movement on grass - A. Zverev yesterday - and it's a great way to be prepared for Berrettini.

I was on Seppi, I gotta be on Goffin. You can find him @2,70 Unibet and it's much worth it IMO.

I have my value radar signal on Goffin as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

..and last, but not least, Feliciano Lopez is such a grass specialist that odds of 3.20 for him are always welcome. He's very hard to be broken and with Auger Aliassime a big server as well things can go into tiebreaks, where Lopez's experience could come into play, which is why I think it can be the biggest value of the day.

@3.20 it's definitely worth it

 

@CzechPunterThanks, man. Been reading this forum for a while, again, so will try to add some sights of mine in the future

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very bad start yesterday (Anisimova), however I will try to make amends today 😁

Sam Stosur vs. Magda Linette (Eastbourne qualifications), Sam@1.826 Pinnacle

Magda has an almost perfect run on grass surface this year, 7:1, but I think that Aussies power-strokes would be too much for the Polish girl. Sam has already beaten Iga quite comfortably yesterday and has a positive h2h score with Magda (2:0 Wimbledon 2016).

Cheers, 🍺

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, aphro said:

Hello, guys!

Let me just add 5 cents into the discussion: while developing value radar i've took into consideration 100 000 matches and the outcome was that WTA matches are non profit at all. And also i was looking some video on youtube about backing the server trading strategy (on betfair) and the guy who explained it also told to use only ATP matches.

I disagree. I make nice profits and bet 99% on WTA. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Félix Auger-Aliassime to beat (-1,5 Sets) Feliciano López at 2.10 with 888

This is one of the favorites tournaments of Feliciano but the truth is that he's still here because the opponents he had. In the first round he won against Fucsovics in a 3 set match, in the second round Del Potro retired for an injury and yesterday he won against Raonic in a 3 set match. A few weeks ago i posted here that Felix has the conditions to be do big things on this surface and looks like i was right. He did Final in Stuttgart the last week and here he has won against Kyrgios in 3 sets, Dimitrov in 2 and Tsitsipas also in 2, that's impressive. The only way for Feliciano to win this is serving extremely well and try to surprise Félix in the TB. The problem for Feli is that Félix is absolutely hungry for winning his first ATP tournament and looks like he has a huge chance here after losing the Final in Stuttgart the last week. I can't imagine Feliciano breaking Félix serve (his serve is working extremely well and his return is also better than Feliciano) and I expect Feliciano conceding some BP. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, kempazzo said:

..and last, but not least, Feliciano Lopez is such a grass specialist that odds of 3.20 for him are always welcome. He's very hard to be broken and with Auger Aliassime a big server as well things can go into tiebreaks, where Lopez's experience could come into play, which is why I think it can be the biggest value of the day.

I know Lopez is very good on grass and when his serve is working he's tough to beat, but his serving has been poor all week, broken many times and giving up countless BPs. If he continues like that, he'll lose to the young Canadian who so far has shown no signs of nerves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IN PLAY

EASTBOURNE

Backed Parmentier vs Hercog - 4.4 Betfair - will look to trade.

 

Hercog when sub 1.5 odds and losing the first set is 5-10. Parmentier already broken Hercog twice and 1.26 is too short when looking at the history so taking a back of Parmentier and look to trade out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said:

IN PLAY

EASTBOURNE

Backed Parmentier vs Hercog - 4.4 Betfair - will look to trade.

 

Hercog when sub 1.5 odds and losing the first set is 5-10. Parmentier already broken Hercog twice and 1.26 is too short when looking at the history so taking a back of Parmentier and look to trade out. 

She's falling apart in the third set so not happening with this one today lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bettingboots said:

I know Lopez is very good on grass and when his serve is working he's tough to beat, but his serving has been poor all week, broken many times and giving up countless BPs. If he continues like that, he'll lose to the young Canadian who so far has shown no signs of nerves.

Have to be honest - haven't seen him this week. But Giving 1 bp in 3 sets to Fucsovics and 4 bp to Raonic, also in 3 long sets aren't a sign of very poor serving IMO. Also, % of 1st serve winning was quite good in these matches (81% and 84% respectively).

IMO his serving on his normal level, but we'll be smarter after the match ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Félix Auger-Aliassime to beat (-1,5 Sets) Feliciano López at 2.10 with 888

This is one of the favorites tournaments of Feliciano but the truth is that he's still here because the opponents he had. In the first round he won against Fucsovics in a 3 set match, in the second round Del Potro retired for an injury and yesterday he won against Raonic in a 3 set match. A few weeks ago i posted here that Felix has the conditions to be do big things on this surface and looks like i was right. He did Final in Stuttgart the last week and here he has won against Kyrgios in 3 sets, Dimitrov in 2 and Tsitsipas also in 2, that's impressive. The only way for Feliciano to win this is serving extremely well and try to surprise Félix in the TB. The problem for Feli is that Félix is absolutely hungry for winning his first ATP tournament and looks like he has a huge chance here after losing the Final in Stuttgart the last week. I can't imagine Feliciano breaking Félix serve (his serve is working extremely well and his return is also better than Feliciano) and I expect Feliciano conceding some BP. 

 

I forgot to say something really important. Félix has conceded 0 breaks against Kyrgios, Tsitsipas and Dimitrov. Feliciano serve has been broken 2 times (1 against Raonic and 1 against Fucsovics).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FAA v Lopez (Queens) - over 23.5 games at 1.83 with Sportingbet

Simple reasoning here: both have strong serves so I feel we will definitely have at least one TB here. Although FAA is of course the better player, Lopez has held his serve a high percentage of the time. I doubt Lopez will break FAA's serve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well turns out I was right one of the two underdogs came in... Feliciano really good on grass.. Next match might be a gift... I'm going to hammer Feliciano Vs Simon.. Just waiting on the line , and Goffin might take Halle.. No idea on the second pick... Hope you guys can confirm on Feliciano.. I will hammer as soon as line becomes available because I think it's going to move pretty big .. I'm hoping I can get something decent like -160 , but opening line for Feliciano basically should be at -230 if I'm the oddsmaker. I almost never bet favorites but he's really in his purest form right now, and has a huge serving advantage in the match. 

After Pierre lost.. I was pondering whether to take Lopez or not just based on superstitions I like the pic all the way my other pic was in Schoofs from the Netherlands.. When I saw that she lost two sets to zero I knew I had to take a chance on Lopez so I went double stake on Feliciano.. You probably could’ve got a crazy price on him after he lost the first set and was down to break points in the second set something like almost 10 to 1 I would guess something Crazy

Edited by money44

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also I guess I’ll probably wait on hammering until I hear what you guys think the bet looks too easy which could be a problem but Feliciano’s in the doubles as well I think it’s more likely that he loses that match

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Parlay: Heather Watson 2.3 + Feliciano Lopez -170 with Local Books. 

Total payback is similar to standard two team parlay with odds 1.9 each. 

Watson has a very good record in Eastbourne, and I've seen her recent footage vs Strycova.. she is coming back into form, and I think she will be more motivated to win here than Cornet who might have plans for Wimbledon and some other things.. Always can be wrong of course, and Heather save for grandslam.. Lopez is playing brilliant tennis.. I've written analysis on him above..Watson also is serving, striking the ball well, and moving exceptionally well.. She hasn't played a ton of matches this year, and just love here in this spot.. First meeting on grass is perfect time to get a first win vs Cornet who holds h2h ad 3-0 vs Heather.. Rating parlay as 48% chance for completion minimum. 🤑

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Feliciano Lopez to beat (-1.5 sets) Gilles Simon at 2.60 with Betfair

@money44 I'm with you on Feli all the way here. He's gonna beat Gilles in two tomorrow without a doubt. I'm fully confident. I base my confidence on Feli having a 5-2 record in this matchup and they've met 4 times on grass and Feli has won all 4 times and dropping just one set in the process. Feli looked superb today when he beat the teenager Felix A-A and this Queens club final has all the signs of a two set win for Feli.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, money44 said:

Parlay: Heather Watson 2.3 + Feliciano Lopez -170 with Local Books. 

Total payback is similar to standard two team parlay with odds 1.9 each. 

Watson has a very good record in Eastbourne, and I've seen her recent footage vs Strycova.. she is coming back into form, and I think she will be more motivated to win here than Cornet who might have plans for Wimbledon and some other things.. Always can be wrong of course, and Heather save for grandslam.. Lopez is playing brilliant tennis.. I've written analysis on him above..Watson also is serving, striking the ball well, and moving exceptionally well.. She hasn't played a ton of matches this year, and just love here in this spot.. First meeting on grass is perfect time to get a first win vs Cornet who holds h2h ad 3-0 vs Heather.. Rating parlay as 48% chance for completion minimum. 🤑

I have enjoyed reading your input but I'm going to disagree with u here. Cornet will come to play and the price is so short because of Watson's 'home' advantage and familiarity. I really think Cornet takes her out in 2 sets. Something like 6-4, 6-4. Cornet wants momentum going into Wimb, she's going to be taking this seriously IMO.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Munar to beat Kecmanovic at 2.33 with Marathonbet

Neither of the two players has grass success and it is a little surprising to me that Kecmanovic is considered the favorite. Munar showed good tennis on this surface last week against Coric as he was even close to winning the 1st set.  Kecmanovic also performed well against Khachanov as lucky looser, but it is hardly a reason to be considered a favorite here. As I said these players do not play on their preferred surface and for me the odds should be more equal. I do not see any significant advantage for the Serb and 2.33 seems to be a good enough odd to play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/22/2019 at 9:59 AM, kempazzo said:

I think it's time for Berrettini to call it a day. He's been brilliant lately, but I think Goffin is smart and skilled enough to defeat him. Also, Goffin's profile is somewhat similar to Simon (who beat weaker version of Berrettini 3:0 in Wimbledon last year), also Seppi has made most problems for Mateo and Goffin is able to perform in Seppi's style and in better way overall.

Goffin beat tall strong server with average movement on grass - A. Zverev yesterday - and it's a great way to be prepared for Berrettini.

I was on Seppi, I gotta be on Goffin. You can find him @2,70 Unibet and it's much worth it IMO.

Brilliant stuff yesterday, kempazzo! 

Cheers 🍺

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Jaume Munar, Pinnacle @1.709

I was really not impressed with Jaume's game in previous matches with Borna and Fucscovics. The Spaniard is yet to record a first win on grass surface. 

This is also not the Serb's best surface, however I rate him as a better player and hot prospect in the future. 

Miomir also recorded a win vs Kohli in Stuttgart on grass, 2 weeks ago, so I will follow him today in Antaliya. 

👍

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.