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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - June 17 - June 23

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Bencic - Anisimova, Anisimova@2.15 local Bookie.

Anisimova in great form w/ only 2 defeats out of previous 10 matches (Bertens and Barty).

Bencic droping lots of sets in previous matches and had long 2 matches in Mallorca.

I will go with new US prospect with 6/10 confidence.

Cheers and sorry for posting so close to match start.

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That's five missed match points from Ostapenko already...just a couple of days after Bertens. What's going on? :loon

Also remember @Torque complaining about people not serving well enough...well, Ostapenko managed 20+ DFs, that's pretty solid. Imagine that, twenty free points given away and she still had five match points.

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You are talking like is strange to see Ostapenko doing a lot of DF? Come on guys, just 2 weeks ago she did 17 DF against Azarenka in 2 sets, this is her biggest weakness and thats not something new on her. Anyway, it's impressive the difference between how she started that match and the way she ended it. Playing like she did at the start of the match and in her previous 2 rounds here she will be able to beat any player.

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I am following you guys a little bit here but I'm not trying to post plays for one year like I mentioned before until I get the train moving properly.. I have a sizable bankroll right now, and I been really impressed with alot of tips I seen here recently... I haven't checked all days over th past months, won't mention names, but it's some of the regular bunch of guys.  

Also I think Four Leaf is right about Pierre Hughes Herbert .. he's really playing some of the best singles in his career, and he's also getting a ton of support from french fans. I did not see the match vs Coric today, and I nearly bet Coric for large stakes.. Fortunately the odds just weren't tempting enough to take because I thought it was almost a sure bet.. and then Hughes Herbert surprised again.. I think its less about Coric's injury and more about the rise to prominence of who I believe is the most capable France player at the moment. I feel that Monfils will be dealing with a downswing after the best tennis of his career. Lucas Pouille maybe is coming off an injury as well but he doesn't look as fit in the legs as Herbert. Also it would seem that Federer is having a bit of a slide currently struggling in his last two matches against elite players but I can't really see this match being a whole lot easier for him.. Long story short I see Herbert or Feli Lopez with the upset tomorrow, and I'm still digging around to see which one I prefer but based on the odds .. its not really a tough decision. I may insure the second player for similar for 40% stakes or so of the original bet. 😎

additonal note: I have placed sample size bet on Herbert because the value of the odds.. I'm thinking they will drop to around 6.5/1 before match.. Really don't have a good feel for it , but I could lose all my other bets for tomorrow and make a huge profit if i'm right about this.. so the odds I took was 9.05. pretty exciting, and feel like I'm due to score some big odds such as these. There has been many underdogs winning across all the tournaments, but its grass season before Wimbledon, and this is to be expected.. I don't think its reason to believe there won't be more coming because the crazy odds errors have not went full throttle yet, and most we have seen of upsets is small outsiders ranging from 2.0 - 3.5 mainly and a couple sitting around 5.0. 

Edited by money44
comment about odds

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Hello, guys!

Let me just add 5 cents into the discussion: while developing value radar i've took into consideration 100 000 matches and the outcome was that WTA matches are non profit at all. And also i was looking some video on youtube about backing the server trading strategy (on betfair) and the guy who explained it also told to use only ATP matches.

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I'm making a follow up post to my initial one regarding the Herbert - Federer match.. I'm having second thoughts about this for particular superstition reasons, and I'm not going to place any amount larger than the initial sample bet I took with Pierre.. I may end up trying to buy my way out of this bet.. We'll see.. Just fair warning , I'm looking at other options instead and hope everybody has a winning day tomorrow... Should be atleast one highly profitable wager available. 

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As good as Herbert has been playing theres no way he will beat Fed.. he just doesn't have the tools or the game to win. Even a Federer playing poorly is way too much for Herbert. I actually think the odds are pretty short and would have thought it should be something closer to 13.00.

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I think it's time for Berrettini to call it a day. He's been brilliant lately, but I think Goffin is smart and skilled enough to defeat him. Also, Goffin's profile is somewhat similar to Simon (who beat weaker version of Berrettini 3:0 in Wimbledon last year), also Seppi has made most problems for Mateo and Goffin is able to perform in Seppi's style and in better way overall.

Goffin beat tall strong server with average movement on grass - A. Zverev yesterday - and it's a great way to be prepared for Berrettini.

I was on Seppi, I gotta be on Goffin. You can find him @2,70 Unibet and it's much worth it IMO.

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I also think +1,5 set hc on Gilles Simon is worth trying. Tall Medvedvev daesn't convince me on grass with his movement and big swing. Simon can play on grass quite well and should move the Russian on court to push him into errors. Big serve of Russian should be opposed by Simon's return that was tested yesterday by Mahut, so the Frenchmen should be prepared for that.

I think odds for Simon are huuuge

set @2.45 Pinacle and even ml @5.34 looks good in my eyes.

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37 minutes ago, kempazzo said:

I think it's time for Berrettini to call it a day. He's been brilliant lately, but I think Goffin is smart and skilled enough to defeat him. Also, Goffin's profile is somewhat similar to Simon (who beat weaker version of Berrettini 3:0 in Wimbledon last year), also Seppi has made most problems for Mateo and Goffin is able to perform in Seppi's style and in better way overall.

Goffin beat tall strong server with average movement on grass - A. Zverev yesterday - and it's a great way to be prepared for Berrettini.

I was on Seppi, I gotta be on Goffin. You can find him @2,70 Unibet and it's much worth it IMO.

I have my value radar signal on Goffin as well

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..and last, but not least, Feliciano Lopez is such a grass specialist that odds of 3.20 for him are always welcome. He's very hard to be broken and with Auger Aliassime a big server as well things can go into tiebreaks, where Lopez's experience could come into play, which is why I think it can be the biggest value of the day.

@3.20 it's definitely worth it

 

@CzechPunterThanks, man. Been reading this forum for a while, again, so will try to add some sights of mine in the future

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Very bad start yesterday (Anisimova), however I will try to make amends today 😁

Sam Stosur vs. Magda Linette (Eastbourne qualifications), Sam@1.826 Pinnacle

Magda has an almost perfect run on grass surface this year, 7:1, but I think that Aussies power-strokes would be too much for the Polish girl. Sam has already beaten Iga quite comfortably yesterday and has a positive h2h score with Magda (2:0 Wimbledon 2016).

Cheers, 🍺

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11 hours ago, aphro said:

Hello, guys!

Let me just add 5 cents into the discussion: while developing value radar i've took into consideration 100 000 matches and the outcome was that WTA matches are non profit at all. And also i was looking some video on youtube about backing the server trading strategy (on betfair) and the guy who explained it also told to use only ATP matches.

I disagree. I make nice profits and bet 99% on WTA. 

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Félix Auger-Aliassime to beat (-1,5 Sets) Feliciano López at 2.10 with 888

This is one of the favorites tournaments of Feliciano but the truth is that he's still here because the opponents he had. In the first round he won against Fucsovics in a 3 set match, in the second round Del Potro retired for an injury and yesterday he won against Raonic in a 3 set match. A few weeks ago i posted here that Felix has the conditions to be do big things on this surface and looks like i was right. He did Final in Stuttgart the last week and here he has won against Kyrgios in 3 sets, Dimitrov in 2 and Tsitsipas also in 2, that's impressive. The only way for Feliciano to win this is serving extremely well and try to surprise Félix in the TB. The problem for Feli is that Félix is absolutely hungry for winning his first ATP tournament and looks like he has a huge chance here after losing the Final in Stuttgart the last week. I can't imagine Feliciano breaking Félix serve (his serve is working extremely well and his return is also better than Feliciano) and I expect Feliciano conceding some BP. 

 

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2 hours ago, kempazzo said:

..and last, but not least, Feliciano Lopez is such a grass specialist that odds of 3.20 for him are always welcome. He's very hard to be broken and with Auger Aliassime a big server as well things can go into tiebreaks, where Lopez's experience could come into play, which is why I think it can be the biggest value of the day.

I know Lopez is very good on grass and when his serve is working he's tough to beat, but his serving has been poor all week, broken many times and giving up countless BPs. If he continues like that, he'll lose to the young Canadian who so far has shown no signs of nerves.

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IN PLAY

EASTBOURNE

Backed Parmentier vs Hercog - 4.4 Betfair - will look to trade.

 

Hercog when sub 1.5 odds and losing the first set is 5-10. Parmentier already broken Hercog twice and 1.26 is too short when looking at the history so taking a back of Parmentier and look to trade out. 

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8 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said:

IN PLAY

EASTBOURNE

Backed Parmentier vs Hercog - 4.4 Betfair - will look to trade.

 

Hercog when sub 1.5 odds and losing the first set is 5-10. Parmentier already broken Hercog twice and 1.26 is too short when looking at the history so taking a back of Parmentier and look to trade out. 

She's falling apart in the third set so not happening with this one today lol

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1 hour ago, Bettingboots said:

I know Lopez is very good on grass and when his serve is working he's tough to beat, but his serving has been poor all week, broken many times and giving up countless BPs. If he continues like that, he'll lose to the young Canadian who so far has shown no signs of nerves.

Have to be honest - haven't seen him this week. But Giving 1 bp in 3 sets to Fucsovics and 4 bp to Raonic, also in 3 long sets aren't a sign of very poor serving IMO. Also, % of 1st serve winning was quite good in these matches (81% and 84% respectively).

IMO his serving on his normal level, but we'll be smarter after the match ;)

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