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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - June 17 - June 23

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Konta (vs. Ostapenko) + Kenin (vs. Jabeur) at 1.81 with William Hill

Nothing much to say here. Im not impressed with the victory of Ostapenko against Swiatek. I see Konta too much solid for her. I saw Jabeur against Kudermetova in Rosmalen and her game was as poor as her results of the last 8 months. I see Kenin so much better right now.

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Andreas Seppi (+1.5 sets) to beat Matteo Berretini at 2.25 with Boylesports

Going against Berretini again after seeing both him and Seppi in action. Seppi isn't getting any younger, but he's still very decent and I like his performances in Halle so far, he's yet to drop a set in three matches and that should be good for confidence. He also managed to beat the Italian in this tournament in 2018. The fact that Berretini is going to get a day off is somewhat problematic and it's why I'm going for the set handicap instead of the outright, but there should be some value in this one. (The other reason for me taking the set handicap instead of the outright is psychological, as I really want to get some of those Ws on the board and the handicap obviously has a better chance of coming in).

Fun Fact: The somewhat legendary Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo tried competitive tennis again this week, but I guess that there's no coming back for the 41-year old veteran given that he was crushed 6-3 6-1.

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Struff win a set vs Khachanov + Herbert win the match vs Stakhovsky + Coric win the match vs Sousa at 2.32 with Bet 365.

 

Not much to say.... Struff is playing a brilliant tennis and is facing Khachanov who's not an specialist in the surface at all... + Herbert that won hes match against Monfils without too much problems facing Stakhovsky (dont like the physical and emotional way that he face the matches.. sometimes it seems that he dont even want to play tennis)... + Coric (needs to defend the title in halle) facing a decadent Sousa...
The logic says... no surprises here...
 

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10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

 

Fun Fact: The somewhat legendary Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo tried competitive tennis again this week, but I guess that there's no coming back for the 41-year old veteran given that he was crushed 6-3 6-1.

The one-sleeved bandit ?  Yes, a bit of a legend alright. I thought he'd be older than 41 by now 😀

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1 hour ago, Bettingboots said:

The one-sleeved bandit ?  Yes, a bit of a legend alright. I thought he'd be older than 41 by now 😀

Yep, that's him. I think he's coaching Ortega-Olmedo or something, not very successfully by the looks of things.

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Parlay at 4.87 with Betfair

Amanda Anisimova to beat (-1.5 set) Alizé Cornet at 2.50

I just feel Amanda could have too mutch for Alizé so I'm gonna try this random pick.

Angelique Kerber to beat (-1.5 games) Maria Sharapova at 1.95

Angelique destroyed Maria down under 18 months ago and could do the same here but I wont be surprised if Maria steals a set but Angelique as a defending SW19 champ should win this with at least 2 games to spare.

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Jelena Ostapenko to beat Petra Martic at 2.14 with Unibet

Yay, I won a bet - and I now hope that Ostapenko is going to double the tally tomorrow. She looked great against Konta today, striking very freely and having the same vibes as during that famous French Open run. Martic, on the other hand, seemed to have some minor ankle issues in her match, which could come into play overnight. Martic is the more consistent player of the two, but, based on today, I have to take Jelena at odds against.

 

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Parlay at 14.82 with Unibet

Diego Schwartzman to beat Daniil Medvedev at 3.85

As said above, no reason not to keep on rolling with Diego.

Barbora Strycova/Kristyna Pliskova over 21.5 games at 1.86

Got a feeling this match could go the distance.

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Petra Martic at 2.07

Following @CzechPunter on this one.

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Petra Martic to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.94 with Marathonbet

I will go against the general opinion here. I think Ostapenko will not maintain the level of playing that she had against Konta. Martic is player with a lot of variety and that can frustrate Ostapenko.

Krystina Pliskova +10,5 Games (vs Strycova) at 1.57 with bet365

Krystina is on a 5 winning streak (Sofia Zhuk, Pegula, Bouzkova, Tomova and Karolina Pliskova) and her serve is working so well. I think this match is a flip coin but this but this bet can be won even with a 2-0 for Strycova (if we have tight sets).

Julia Gorges to beat Putintseva at 1.61 with Marathonbet

Not impressed with the win of Putintseva against Osaka (I see her so mentally weak since Sascha Bajin and her broke their professional relationship. Putintseva will struggle on every game on serve so if Gorges is accurate with her serve she will have a big advantage against her.

 

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Pierre-Hugues Herbert to beat Borna Coric at 2.38 with Unibet

It's 2-2 in the matchup with P-HH winning both encounters on faster surfaces, once on grass in Wimbledon qualies 2014 in straight sets. Highly likely that we might see Borna coming up short here since P-HH i playing the best tennis of his singles career right now.

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Auger-Aliassime to beat Tsitsipas at 2.30 with Bet365

Tsitsipas almost lost yesterday from the French veteran Chardy, but eventually managed to beat him with two tiebreaks. He allowed  four breaks and many break points. FAA was incredible against Dimitrov, served incredibly and then against Kyrgios not allowed to be break. The Canadian defeated both of his matches against Tsitsipas so far and I see no reason not to continue his winning way.

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Another parlay at 22.09 with Betfair

Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.35

Felix serves excellent now, gonna be quite a task for Stefanos to break serve here and that spells DOOM for him.

Gilles Simon to beat Nicolas Mahut at 1.60

Gilles always had Nicos number because of his defense and return game and it will likely get the better of him this time also.

Julia Görges to beat (-1.5 sets) Yulia Putintseva at 2.50

Julia owns a 3-0 record in this matchup and 6-0 in sets and grass is one of Julias best surfaces while it's not Yulias best. Yulia may have beaten the no.1 but that's not so impressive when thinking of how the no.1's been playing lately.

 

Angelique Kerber to beat (-1.5 sets) Caroline Garcia at 2.35

Caroline looked tired yesterday and Angelique played ruthless in her last match when beating Maria Sharapova and Caroline has only taken a set off Angelique once in a match that counts, 2017 in Wuhan when she was at her best. Other than that match Angelique has beaten Caroline in straight sets 6 times and based on how both played yesterday it's looking increasingly likely it will happen again.

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Bencic - Anisimova, Anisimova@2.15 local Bookie.

Anisimova in great form w/ only 2 defeats out of previous 10 matches (Bertens and Barty).

Bencic droping lots of sets in previous matches and had long 2 matches in Mallorca.

I will go with new US prospect with 6/10 confidence.

Cheers and sorry for posting so close to match start.

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That's five missed match points from Ostapenko already...just a couple of days after Bertens. What's going on? :loon

Also remember @Torque complaining about people not serving well enough...well, Ostapenko managed 20+ DFs, that's pretty solid. Imagine that, twenty free points given away and she still had five match points.

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You are talking like is strange to see Ostapenko doing a lot of DF? Come on guys, just 2 weeks ago she did 17 DF against Azarenka in 2 sets, this is her biggest weakness and thats not something new on her. Anyway, it's impressive the difference between how she started that match and the way she ended it. Playing like she did at the start of the match and in her previous 2 rounds here she will be able to beat any player.

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I am following you guys a little bit here but I'm not trying to post plays for one year like I mentioned before until I get the train moving properly.. I have a sizable bankroll right now, and I been really impressed with alot of tips I seen here recently... I haven't checked all days over th past months, won't mention names, but it's some of the regular bunch of guys.  

Also I think Four Leaf is right about Pierre Hughes Herbert .. he's really playing some of the best singles in his career, and he's also getting a ton of support from french fans. I did not see the match vs Coric today, and I nearly bet Coric for large stakes.. Fortunately the odds just weren't tempting enough to take because I thought it was almost a sure bet.. and then Hughes Herbert surprised again.. I think its less about Coric's injury and more about the rise to prominence of who I believe is the most capable France player at the moment. I feel that Monfils will be dealing with a downswing after the best tennis of his career. Lucas Pouille maybe is coming off an injury as well but he doesn't look as fit in the legs as Herbert. Also it would seem that Federer is having a bit of a slide currently struggling in his last two matches against elite players but I can't really see this match being a whole lot easier for him.. Long story short I see Herbert or Feli Lopez with the upset tomorrow, and I'm still digging around to see which one I prefer but based on the odds .. its not really a tough decision. I may insure the second player for similar for 40% stakes or so of the original bet. 😎

additonal note: I have placed sample size bet on Herbert because the value of the odds.. I'm thinking they will drop to around 6.5/1 before match.. Really don't have a good feel for it , but I could lose all my other bets for tomorrow and make a huge profit if i'm right about this.. so the odds I took was 9.05. pretty exciting, and feel like I'm due to score some big odds such as these. There has been many underdogs winning across all the tournaments, but its grass season before Wimbledon, and this is to be expected.. I don't think its reason to believe there won't be more coming because the crazy odds errors have not went full throttle yet, and most we have seen of upsets is small outsiders ranging from 2.0 - 3.5 mainly and a couple sitting around 5.0. 

Edited by money44
comment about odds

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