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The Equaliser

Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

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Hi Guys,

I will post up my daily Trixie here as well as in the Forum on Betfair.

I am including my results thus, for transparity which have not been fruitful yet.

Since this site is more associated with betting than laying I will substitute my insurance bet with a "back to lay" bet rather than a "lay" bet.

Another blank day with Markazi getting close to get 2nd by a neck at 11/4.
I have c0ontrated my Trixe today at Carlisle which has Heavy Ground.  I have left Epsom alone.
Original bank £500 now £474.73 Trixies - £16; Lay bets - £9.27, Back bets = Nil

1.40 Carlisle (1) Pavers Pride 5/1, 2.15 (10) Lexikon 9/2 and 2.50 (9) Accross The Sea 4/1 = potential return £255.48

If I get nothing on teh first two I may come back with a back to lay bet later.

 

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Nothing ran well at Carlisle yesterday, therefore a nil return.

Original Bank £500 now stands at £470.73 with =£20 on Trixie and -£9.27 on Lay bets

Today's Trixie is 2.35Epsom (3) Anna Nerium 4/1, 3.25 Muss(6)Just Benjamin 9/2 and 4.30 Epsom (3) Broome 6/1 = possible return £319 for a £4 stake.  Whilst one can never exclude any of Aiden O'Brien's horses when they run against each other I would be very surpised if Donnacha O'Brien has chosen the wrong horse to ride in the Derby.

I have made an early doors "Back to Lay" bet in the 2.00 at Epsom.  I have backed (3) Victory Command for £2 at 13.00 which has been matched.  I have put in a lay bet for £2 at 10.5 in-running if neceesary to gain £4.75 for a free bet.  I will be very disappointed if if the horse cannot run to a price of 10.5 at some stage either pre-race or in-running.
 

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I was one length away from at least an extra £200 yesterday and being smothered in glory. Having got the first two in on my Trixie it was down to Broome to deliver in the Derby.  I didn't know that the horse plays up in the stalls, possibly why they put it in last.  Anyway this did not help its cause as it was slowly away.  Funny enough it seemd to be coming again at the end of the race so maybe it will be a good one for the St Leger.  I am glad that Seamie Hefferman won for Aiden O'Brien, perhaps I should have listened to Ed Chambers on Sky Sports who frequengtly tips the big race winners.

At least I got a double in which was £30.25 less £4 = £26.25. Sonce I will be puting up a "Back to Lay" bet instead of a "lay" bet in future I have decided to offset my £9.27 accumulated "Lay"loss balance against the Trixie balance.  This means that my original balance of £500 now stands at £496.98 with -£3.02 on Trixies and nil on "back to Lay" bets.

My "back to lay bet" did get matched in-running yesterday and funny enough Mark Johnston didn't get the winner with any of his three runners.

I have just realised that I have made a mistake in staking on my "Back to lay" bet today.  I put £2 on it and it should have been £3.  This is because I quite often try to get a reduced price by puting in a larger stake to begin with in the hope of getting the lay price matched before the off.  Because I trade on Betfair it means that I would have to put another £2 on the selection at reduced odds and then trade out.  This being so I will take a chance of losing £2 instead of £4.

With only two UK meetings today I ddn't think I would find a Trixie bet but as luck would have it I have.

This is as follows: 3.20 Nott (4) Mayfair Spirit 4/1, 4.10 Fakenham (4) Fifty shades 7/2 and 4.30 Nottingham (6) Burford Brown 5/1.  This has a potential return of £214.50 for a £4 stake.

Mayfair Spirit looked too big at 7.40 on Betfair last night and I placed £2 on it and it got matched.  As stated above I should have put £3 on it.  Never mind, I put in a "lay" bet of £2 at 5.2 so as to recover £4.18 should it get matched in running (oddly enough sports book is offering 4/1 however it is trading at 6.8 on Betfair)

Have a good day, I know I will

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Just for the record I have cashed out on my "back to lay" bet today.  This means that I will win £0.4 or £0.36 should Mayfair Spirit lose.  As mentioned before I should have placed £3 (max £4) on the horse last night.  I know this seems trivial but I like to correct mistakes when I make them.  It is of course possible for me to find another "Back to Lay" bet later if my Trixie goes pear shaped.  And, of course I will advise this prior to the off if I do.

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No joy yesterday and only £0.36 gained on Mayfair Spirit.

Original Bank £500 less -£7.02 on Trixies and plus £0.36 on back to lay bets = £493.34.

Todays Trixie is all at Thirsk.  3.15 (12) Someone Exciting, 4.15 (1) Remember The Days and 5.15 (3) Frosted Lass = £4 stake and potential Return of £237.48

I am struggling to find a back to lay bet.  I have put in £3 on Someone Exciting at 12 but it is currently trading at 9.6 so I may have to cancel the bet before I go off to lunch.
 

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No joy again yesterday with my Trixie.  I am forever fascinated by the workings of the market forces.  I didn't get my back to lay bet matched at 12 as the available price of 9.6 on Something Exciting got smashed and it ended up being favourite at 5/1;finished 11th beaten 6 1/4 lengths.  Another horse of mine Frosted Lass was trading at around 4.0 in the morning and then went past 5.5 in the run up to the race; it finished 5th at 4/1 beaten 4 lengths.  Hence, the market got it wrong in the first instance and right in the second. Whilst we are all are affected by market moves I am not so sure that we can overly depend on them.

Original bank £500 less £11.02 on Trixies and £0.36 on back/lay bets = £489.34 cumulative balance.

My Trixie today is all at Bangor.  2.00 (1) Dounyapour, 3.30 (1) Steel Wave and 5.50 Newc (2) Life Knowledge = £4 stake with a potential £98.94 The prices are a bit skinny for my liking but my other fancies Delface in the 3.00 and Handy Hollow in the 4.00 do not seem to be getting good market support.

I have put in a Back to Lay bet on Handy Hollow for £3 at 10.5 in the 4.00 Bangor (Currently trading at 7.6) so I won't hold my breath in the hope that the price will get matched.

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I think it will be easier for me to post up results in the evening and Trixie bets late morning from now on.

I had one winner today which was Steel Wave at 3/1.  I was feeling a bit miffed by not including Handy Hollow in my Trixie so when it came to the 3rd leg of the Trixie I decided to cash out for £4.14 when I had the opportunity. The 5.50 at Newcastle was a class 6 Handicap race with 14 runners whereas my selections at Bangor were in class 4 races.  Hence a 14p profit on the day for the Trixie.  As you may have guessed I didn't get my back to lay bet matched on Handy Hollow. Also, I am thinking of keeping a log of the sequences on my Trixies that may be useful.  It would read LLLLLDLLC (where D stands for Double and C stands for Cash out.  "T" when it happens would stand for Treble.  My Trixie balance stands at -£1.61 so that's not bad going for 7 losses, a double and a cash out is it? I have moved the £9.27 Lay loss on to the back/lay side so as not to distort my Trixie account.

Hence; Original bank £500 less (£1.61) Trixies and (£8.91) Back/Lay bets = £489.48 balance carried forward.

Bit of a mixed bag of races tomorrrow; hopefully the weather will not play havoc with finding selections.

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TODAYS TRIXIE

3.0 N Abb (2) Passing Call (5/2);4.00 Font (3) Not A Role Model 3/1 and 5.10 N Abb (6) Inspireus 5/1 = £4 staked with potential return of £143.00

I don't have a back to lay bet yet but will let but will let everyone know if I find one.

Have a good day, I know I will

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TODAY'S TRIXIE

3.20 Ripon (5) Aiya 5/2, 4.0 Ham (8) Vive La difference 7/2, and 4.10 Hayd (1) Youkan 7/2 = £4 stake with a potential return of £122.60

I have put in aback/lay bet of £3 on Zig Zag Zyggy at 11.50 4.30 Ham (currently 9.8); this can cook all day.  If matched I will lay £3 at £10 to recoup £4.27 if it wins.

Have a good day, I know I will

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I couldn't get 11.5 for Zig Zag Zyggy and since I have to go out soon I settled for £3 at 11.00 This means I have put in a £3 Lay bet in running at 9.4 which would produce £4.56 if it wins.  It also means that I am seeking a 5 clicks shortening in price as opposed to 3. I will see how it gets on

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TODAY'S TRIXIE

Not much in the way of class races where I can achieve the odds I like, however I have managed to make my selections in one class 3 race and two class 4 races.

2.55 Market Rasen (5) Blushing Red 5/1, 3.05 Brighton (3) Lightening Charlie 7/2 and 6.20 Hayd ((3) Felix 3/1 = £4 outlay with a potemtial return of £177.00

I haven't got a back to lay bet yet and thinking about it I will prefer to suggest just a "lay" bet on most weekdays as there aren't generally enough higher class races with fancied runners at the longer odds.  My bet will be for £4.21 at a max of 2.42 so as to yield £4 if the horse loses or a max of £5.98 should it win. I may choose to select my price in-running on some occasions.

TRIXIE RESULTS

Yesterday produced nothing but luckily my "back to lay" bet got matched in running but unfortunately it didn't win.

Original bank £500 less £9.61 Trixies and other bets -£8.91 = £491.48 carried forward.

Have a good day, I know I will.

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TODAY'S TRIXIE

All at Newmarket

2.45 (10) Spirit Ridge 5/1, 3.55 (13) Embour 13/2 and 5.35 (3) Ventura Knight 9/2 = £4 stake with a potential return of £366.72

My lay bet today is 2.35 Beverley (5) Shawaaheq £4.21 @ 2.02 = £4 v -£4.29 should it win

TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE

No win yesterday

Original bank £500 less Trixies £13.61 and other bets -£8.91 = £477.48 C/Forward

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TODAY'S TRIXIE

3.20 Perth Green Zone, 3.40 Godwood Orinswift, 5.15 Goodwood Sir Busker = £4 staked with a potential win of £255.48


TRIXIE RESULTS

No win yesterday

Original Bank £500 less £17.61 Trixies and £13.20 on other bets = £469.19 C/Forward

No lay bet today.  I will be running separate thread for these from tomorrow as this seem confusing to a lot of people

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TODAY'S TRIXIE

3.15 STRAT (6) His Dream 5/1, 4.0 Leic. (3)Thorn 11/2 and 4.45 Strat (5) King Monroe 6/1 = £4 stake with potential win £399.48

TRIXIE RESULTS

One winner and second yesterday so a blank day.  Idid a back to lay on Sir Busker and won £4.27 but this doesn't count towards results

Opening Bank £500 less £21.61 = £478.39 C/fwd (this is for Trixie bets only)

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Hi Guys,

I will be posting my Trixie bets under this title from tomorrow.  It would seem that it is too confusing to mix up my "back to lay" bets and straight lay bets alongside my Trixie bets.

I will of course post up my results to date on Trixies since I started on 27th May 19.

Sorry for any inconvenience.

The Equaliser

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • very hard to trust this bet , betting on Qatar to not lose Risky , I feel cant set on my nervous 90 minutes with Qatar 😄  I know them and I Know their defense too  I maybe agree betting on Qatar 0.75 worth small stake but I dont feel good to bet on this one 
    • Uruguay vs Ecuador One of the more intriguing group stage matches is coming up this Sunday when Uruguay and Ecuador meet in an 11pm BST kick-off at the Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte. Neither side has enjoyed much success in this competition over recent years so this opening game is a big chance to put those ghosts to rest. Uruguay remain under the management of Oscar Tabarez. It's now 13 years in charge of the national team for the experienced head coach. During his tenure at the helm, he's guided Uruguay to the 2011 Copa America title and a 4th placed finish in the 2010 World Cup and 2013 Confederations Cup. Unfortunately, in this competition they didn't even make it out of the group stage in 2016 and struggled to the Quarter-Finals in 2015. La Celeste do come into this tournament off the back of three wins with clean sheets kept in all three games. Admittedly, the opposition were only Panama, Thailand, and Uzbekistan. Ecuador are one of only two countries in South America to have never won the Copa America. La Tricolor's best performances were a 4th placed finish in both 1959 and 1993. They've only managed to navigate past the group stage once in the last seven tournaments. Hernan Dario Gomez's side come into this game without a win in their last 4 matches. I have a soft spot for Uruguay. On the day I went to get fitted for my wedding suit in 2012 it was when the Olympic Games were taking place. Uruguay had a game in Cardiff so the team was based there and I bumped into a few of them on Duke Street opposite the castle. They were all very pleasant including Tabarez. So on that basis I'm back them to win here. Well, not just that but I think they'll have too much for a weak Ecuador side. Uruguay -1 @ 3.50 with SpreadEx Uruguay HT/FT @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes @jazzman02, @real55555, @hristofor, @Peter_Portman, @Podosfairistis, @Niceguy, @markus808, @Feduloff, @clubgowi, @Neubs, @Hunter12, @salmonman, @JuMeSyn, @recklessrookie, @janesill, @Mustionown, @potus, @kevinjoh, @dinero, @Hutcho_CFC, @roveruk, @matrixman, @Jazzer Isaac, @Dylan Lynch, @Tiffy, @Kenton Schweppes, @MangoTheThird, @neilovan, @mcsilks, @Ameer, @thfc, @Roy The Boy, @Tim81, @sajtion, @newjack, @Gedkip, @Mindfulness, @Magic0024, @mijOsim, @canaries91, @waynecoyne, @allyhibs, @four-leaf, @Icongene, @malabgd, @Stevecw, @Xcout, @Teodore, @Bobby Vegas, @Darran, @DrO, @mtom, @KikoCy, @betcatalog, @immortal--, @allthethings, @DW_United, @Pipoca, @liamcorrigan86, @vasilli07, @Misa, @Pep004, @rOYS123, @thinkpink63, @ant8n, @BobEire, @RIOT88, @Power90, @Adley, @Alexc, @bastia, @Ameer. @Odyssey, and @Marek76, are any of you guys betting on these Group C matches?
    • Lola Paige 14.45 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 Bet365 Foaled February 25. 220,000 gns yearling, Galileo filly. Dam, maiden (stayed 1m), half-sister to smart winner up to 11f Tha'ir. Interesting newcomer. 
    • Celtic Manor 16.30 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog) Looks a typical progressive sort from his yard, winning 5f Windsor novice on return 3 weeks ago. Step back up to 6f should suit now handicapping and there's surely more to come.  Deburrafield 16.00 Downpatrick 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog) Fair hurdler. Very good second of 16 in handicap hurdle (25/1) at Ballinrobe (20.3f, good) 20 days ago, sticking to task. 
    • 16.55 Gowran park - Rehoboth Beach - 1 Pt Win @ 10\1 Bet365
    • Paraguay vs Qatar The Group B action continues on Sunday night when Paraguay and Qatar go head-to-head in an 8pm BST kick-off at the Estadio do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Considering the other two teams in this group are Argentina and Colombia then defeat would surely spell the beginning of the end in this tournament for whichever teams loses. Paraguay come into this game in truly dreadful form having won just 1 of their last 8 matches. The glimmer of hope for Eduardo Berizzo's side is that they beat Guatemala 2-0 in their most recent game so they enter this tournament off the back of a victory. Berizzo has only been in the job since February this year replacing the departing Juan Carlos Osorio. Having avoided defeat, albeit against abject opposition, in their last two matches could the poor run of form be coming to an end? Qatar are set to host the 2022 World Cup. It was a controversial issue and remains so. However, the Arabic nation is embracing it and they even managed to win the 2019 Asian Cup. As @Ameer states, there are reasons for that so let's not look too deeply into that. Almoez Ali won the golden boot at that tournament in January and February. Can they spring a surprise on another continent? Winning 7 of their last 8 matches with the solitary defeat coming against Brazil suggests they could well do with Felix Sanchez Bas organising his side effectively. I'm not sure who will win this. I want to back Ameer and say Paraguay but I wouldn't be surprised if this in-form Qatar side takes something from this game. I'm swaying towards a draw but I still think Paraguay might just be starting to click under Berizzo. I have to back the draw though I think it's worth placing a double chance bet on Qatar if you feel they could get something. Draw @ 3.50 with SpreadEx Anytime Scorer: Almoez Ali @ 4.75 with Bet365
    • Great work! Very positive start so far. Let's see how we fare with Group B over the couple of days.
    • 3rd -  in touch, headway 3f out, switched right over 2f out, effort over 1f out, ridden to lead briefly inside final furlong, ran on
    • 2nd - took keen hold, held up, went 3rd from the 3rd, went 2nd approaching 3 out, led last, headed flat, soon beaten 1st @ Evs - chased leaders in 3rd, went 2nd from 3f out and improved to dispute lead from 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out and kept on well inside final furlong 7th - prominent, led after 2f, ridden and headed over 3f out, soon lost place, behind over 2f out 4th - soon led, joined briefly halfway, led again early straight, strongly pressed over 1f out and headed 100 yards out, soon carried left and kept on one pace  
    • Félix Auger-Aliassime to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.75 with bet365 I took Félix in the last round but Raonic retired because he was not at his best physically. Now we have Félix priced almost at 3.00 again so I think the value is on him. Both players have not too many matches on this surface but their conditions make them very dangerous players here (aggressive players with good serve). I think the match will be decided by minor details so i prefer the better priced player. Alison Riske to beat Kiki Bertens at 3.06 with Marathonbet  Personally i have Riske to win this tournament at 15.00 but i post this one anyway because i think the value is on the american. Kiki is an excelent player but we all know that grass is not her best surface (she has a W/L record of 15-15). She has win against Johanna Larsson (W/L record on grass of 7-19), Arantxa Rus (13-20), Vikhlyantseva (11-10) and Rybakina (5-1) so she had an easy way (Vikhlyantseva and Rybakina have the conditions to play really well on grass but not the experience). Now she will face a player that had more wins on grass than all these players together (Riske W/L record of 72-30 on grass). Riske is on a 9 winning streak and she has win here against Muchova, Hercog, Alexandrova and Kudermetova. I have to say that Riske has a terrible record in Finals (1-6).
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