Hunter Chase - 5.05 Cartmel

[Darran]

So we are into the final week of Hunter Chases for 2019 and it is the first of two at Cartmel on Bank Holiday Monday. Absainte heads the betting as I type and she looked quite progressive earlier in the season winning her first 3 races on the bounce and ran some good times in the process. Bit disappointing at Witton Castle on Easter Sunday when losing at 4/7, but she was dismounted after the finish so I suspect something didn't feel quite right. I thought she ran a good race at Cheltenham until getting tired late on behind Kalabaloo and Theatre Territory and she has decent claims in this.

Stage One has won twice at Peper Harow which isn't that dissimilar to Cartmel which is probably why Alan Hill is sending him here for this. He hasn't beaten a great deal though in his two wins this season and was well beaten the two times before his last win. This shorter trip will probably suit better than 3m as well although there is plenty of competition for the lead which won't help.

Gina is back on Dee Star having won on him two starts back at Bitterley when losing his maiden tag. He didn't quite see it out in the Heart Of All England at Hexham earlier in the month and that suggests this trip will suit better. I just don't think that form is overly strong though and I think he will have to improve again to take this.

Fair Exchange ran really well in this race last year to finish 2nd and was also 2nd in a novice chase here. His point form this season though has been very in and out and he has had 8 runs since he made his seasonal debut in March at Didmarton. The win on Easter Saturday at Sandon was a fair effort, but he's been beaten 3 times since then. Clearly this trip and track suit and his trainer certainly knows the time of day, but another who likes to make the running.

Dressedforsuccess will be much bigger than the current 7/1 come race time and it was a poor maiden he won last month.

Fateh was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow albeit along way behind the front two. This shorter trip will probably suit better though and he will likely sit in behind the fast pace. Only 6yo so certainly scope for the improvement which he does need to find.

It doesn't make a great deal of sense why Al Le Gone is a much bigger price than Dee Star given there was only 2L between them at Hexham. He ran like this trip would suit better, but he is still a maiden and his prominent placing that night is another reason why I don't think the form is that strong. 

Mickey Miller has already been beaten by Absainte this season. Mahlers Star has been nibbled already at really big prices and I guess they are going on his placed form in 2017. He certainly looks like he doesn't stay 3m when he has pulled up in both points, one in 2018 and one a month ago. I guess he could come on for the run, but this is likely to be a strong test at the trip and he might not see it out. Bedford Forrest was 2nd in this in 2017, but is hard to fancy otherwise and Baile Liam looks to have no chance.

That just leaves the main selection Teeton Power. Now she does like to make the running and the one concern is the amount of front runners in the race, but I think she is good enough to be able to see off the other pace rivals and as Tabitha showed yet again at Kelso on Sunday she is good from the front. For me she has the best form in the race. Last season she was a good 2nd at Cheltenham to Popaway when simply not lasting home and it was the same in the John Corbet Cup. This season she slipped up on her return and then just held on from Sand Blast, who granted didn't really boost the form on Tuesday, but that was basically her first run of the season. She pulled up last time, but was dismounted and I suspect not all was right with the horse. Trip and track should be ideal for her and if she can see off the other front runners I think she can make all. In my view she should be the favourite.

So Teeton Power is the main bet. Behind her it's quite tight as Fair Exchange and Fateh could be capable of running big races and although I am not huge on Stage One's form he should enjoy the track. I will save on Absainte though who doesn't look like she has to lead and has looked progressive this season.

Teeton Power 2pts @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor

Absainte 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and BetVictor

[Darran]

I thought Mr Mercurial was going to win as they jumped the last, but his challenge flattened out in the final 1/2f and as I feared might happen his stamina ran out. I thought he might be classy enough to overcome that, but he wasn't quite. Racing Pulse has clearly thrived since going to the Alexander yard. Nine Altars ran a hell of a race to finish 2nd and had clearly come on a lot for this seasonal debut. Shimla Dawn made the running as expected and ran another good race in this contest to finish 4th, but he doesn't stay this far. Cave Hunter was backed again for some reason, but he ended up pulling up again and is nowhere near the horse he was.

[Darran]

That nibble I mentioned about Mahlers Star has turned into a quite significant gamble and must be the biggest move of the whole season. Now no bigger than 6/1 which is quite staggering and it seems that people want to take any price about it. I won't put it in the official figures, but I have had a small cover bet on it as I find it hard to ignore the money for it.

[Darran]

Got one thing right that Teeton Power would go off favourite, but she was a bit disappointing and sums up how things are going at the moment. She made a bad mistake and after that was always struggling to get involved. Not sure I'd put the run down to her not leading as they went a stupid pace up in front. For me the best ride in the race won the race as Gina held Dee Star up away from the hot pace and then just quietly crept into the race before taking it up around 3 out. I'm not sure if this means I need to upgrade the Heart form or if the race just fell into the winners lap here. It probably is a bit of both. Jodie made her move on Fateh at an earlier stage and it seemed a bit of an odd move to suddenly want to be up on the strong pace, but the horse has run well to be 2nd. Absainte sat just off the pace, but she never really looked like winning. Maybe the Cheltenham effort had left a mark. Fair Exchange was the one who mainly set the strong gallop and he barely got over the last. Stage One never got involved and was last of the 7 to finish. Mahlers Star ended up drifting back out on track to 14/1 and was another who was mainly on the speed. He unseated at 4 out, but was already being pushed along. Hard to know where he would have finished, but I'm guessing probably 4th.

Not a great start to the week, but we have Newton Abbot and Cartmel to look forward to ahead of Stratford on Friday, which looks like being a cracking card judged on the entries.