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harry_rag

100 Value Bets

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Oh well, just over a month in and here we are at the 100th bet which should bring the thread to a close.

St Helens v Leeds:

20 points on Lomax to score a try at 6/4 with Lads

Seems to be an attractive price pretty much every game!

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Going to continue with this as I've found it quite useful trying to take a disciplined approach to deciding what represents "value" and merits being posted. Next stage is post another 100 bets and try and better the return. First 2 bets are in the Spain Women v USA Women game.

24 points on Morgan to score at 5/4

6 points on Morgan to score 2 or more at 15/2

Both with 888

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No joy there. The USA struggled in open play and, while it briefly looked like Morgan would take their second pen, Rapinoe stepped up in the end.

Bet 3 is in Croatia U21 v England U21:

10 points on Brekalo to score at 4/1 with Fred

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32 minutes ago, OddsPredictor said:

11.7% return is impressive over 100 bets but what is not clear to me, not read all the posts so apologies if you have already explained, is which factors do you use to decide odds are good value?

For the bets that make it on here it typically falls into 3 stages in this order:

  1. What do the spreads say? - If the spreads suggest a player should be 2/1 to score a goal or try and the actual price is bigger then that bet merits a second look. I'm more excited if 3/1 is on offer than if it's just 11/5.
  2. What does the market say? - If only one firm is offering odds greater than that suggested above then it's more likely to be a worthwhile bet than if the majority of firms are doing so.
  3. What do the stats say? - If I'm getting better than 2/1 about a player who scores in half the games he plays and today's opponents are no more than average then that would frank it as a solid selection. If the player only scores once in every 4 games and his team are massive underdogs that's probably a swerve. Anything in between requires a degree of subjective decision making.

The first stage is essentially how I interpret spread prices relative to fixed odds based on years of betting, reading Kevin Pullein articles (and his book) and using various spreadsheets I've cobbled together.

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Italy Women v China Women:

6 points on Giacinti to score at 10/1

2 points on her to score 1st at 28/1 and 1 on her to score 2 or more at 75/1 (All with Fred)

Relating this back to the above waffle, comes on to my radar at anything over 4/1 so I think she's slipped under Fred's at those prices.

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Same game, 12 points on Bonansea to score at 10/3 with Spreadex

Spreadex rating her chances lower than anyone else on spreads and fixed odds; I was tempted by 3/1 earlier and can't resist now she's been edged out further. Sub 2/1 in a lot of places which is short, I'd probably concur with those firms who pitch her >2/1 but less than 3s.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Italy Women v China Women:

6 points on Giacinti to score at 10/1

2 points on her to score 1st at 28/1 and 1 on her to score 2 or more at 75/1 (All with Fred)

Relating this back to the above waffle, comes on to my radar at anything over 4/1 so I think she's slipped under Fred's at those prices.

All bets voided, perhaps unsurprisingly (though as the email was received about 6 minutes after she scored, the cynic in me wonders if they'd have stood as losing bets). :wall

Not my practice to take obviously palpable prices but I just reacted quickly to the team news on this one. With the chance to reflect I did wonder if it would get palped.

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Whilst it would have been nice to be posting an update with 10/1 and 28/1 winners alas it wasn't to be so 0/2 and -21 points.

1 winner from 5 bets (20%)

61 points staked, 50 points returned

-11 points

ROI -18.03%

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Wakefield v Huddersfield:

9 points on Frawley to score a try at 5/1 with Lads

10 points on Caton-Brown to score 2 or more tries at 9/2 with Lads

10 points on McGillvary to score 2 or more tries at 4/1 with Lads

2 points each on the last 2 players to score a hat trick, both 25/1 with Hills

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As updates go, not the most pleasant! Costello and McGillvary didn't feature but the rest all lost so 0/10.

1 winner from 15 bets (6.67%)

178 points staked, 50 points returned

-128 points

ROI -71.91%

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Nice early winner, might as well update now as that's it for today.

2 winner from 16 bets (12.5%)

198 points staked, 100 points returned

-98 points

ROI -49.49%

Edited by harry_rag
Corrected win %

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