harry_rag Posted June 16, 2019 Author Share Posted June 16, 2019 Salford v Wakefield: 25 points on Evalds to score a try at evens 14 points each on Lussick and Lui to score a try, both at 11/4 All with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 16, 2019 Author Share Posted June 16, 2019 USA Women v Chile Women: 16 points on LLoyd to score 2 or more at 23/10 with Lads 5 points on LLoyd to score a hat trick at 9/1 with Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 16, 2019 Author Share Posted June 16, 2019 5 winners from 12 today, Cust try and Lloyd brace bookending 3 out of 3 in the Salford game. 115.5 points risked and 207.8 returned for a 92.3 point profit. 30 winners from 89 bets (33.71%) 1318.5 points staked, 1576.2 points returned +257.7 points ROI 19.54% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 16, 2019 Author Share Posted June 16, 2019 Uruguay v Ecuador: 12.5 points on Enner Valencia to score at 3/1 PP (Starts at 11;00 tonight.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 17, 2019 Author Share Posted June 17, 2019 No joy there, early red card didn't help Ecuador's cause. South Africa Women v Germany Women: 20 points on Buhl to score at 8/5 with 365 5 points e/w on her to score 1st at 7/1 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 17, 2019 Author Share Posted June 17, 2019 No joy with any of today's 3 bets so 42.5 points lost. 30 winners from 92 bets (32.61%) 1361 points staked, 1576.2 points returned +215.2 points ROI 15.81% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 Romania U21 v Croatia U21: 12 points on Brekalo to score at 10/3 Betway and 2 points on him to score 2 or more at 28/1 with Hills or Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 Subbed off in the first 15 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 14 points loss from yesterday's two bets. 30 winners from 94 bets (31.91%) 1375 points staked, 1576.2 points returned +201.2 points ROI 14.63% Six bets to go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 Spain U21 v Belgium U21: 12 points on Lukebakio to score at 7/2 with 888 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 Japan Women v England Women: 6 points on Daly to score at 8/1 with Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 Scotland Women v Argentina Women: 18 points on Cuthbert to score at 7/4 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) Cuthbert scores so 1 from 3 today, 36 points risked and 49.5 returned for a 13.5 point gain. 31 winners from 97 bets (31.96%) 1411 points staked, 1625.7 points returned +214.7 points ROI 15.22% Edited June 20, 2019 by harry_rag Copy and paste error (closing sentence deleted) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 London v Hull KR: 9 points on Quinlan to score a try in the first half at 5/1 with Lads That's bet 98. I would have brought the 100 up with Abdull and Pitts both at 7/2 but they were both cut while I was doing my research! Sod's law says... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 Denmark U21 v Austria U21: 16 points on R Skov to score at 9/4 with Fred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 No joy with either of today's bets so a 25 point loss. 31 winners from 99 bets (31.31%) 1436 points staked, 1625.7 points returned +189.7 points ROI 13.21% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Oh well, just over a month in and here we are at the 100th bet which should bring the thread to a close. St Helens v Leeds: 20 points on Lomax to score a try at 6/4 with Lads Seems to be an attractive price pretty much every game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 No try for Lomax so a 20 point loss to finish. 31 winners from 100 bets (31%) 1456 points staked, 1625.7 points returned +169.7 points ROI 11.66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 24, 2019 Author Share Posted June 24, 2019 Going to continue with this as I've found it quite useful trying to take a disciplined approach to deciding what represents "value" and merits being posted. Next stage is post another 100 bets and try and better the return. First 2 bets are in the Spain Women v USA Women game. 24 points on Morgan to score at 5/4 6 points on Morgan to score 2 or more at 15/2 Both with 888 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 24, 2019 Author Share Posted June 24, 2019 No joy there. The USA struggled in open play and, while it briefly looked like Morgan would take their second pen, Rapinoe stepped up in the end. Bet 3 is in Croatia U21 v England U21: 10 points on Brekalo to score at 4/1 with Fred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 24, 2019 Author Share Posted June 24, 2019 Brekalo scores so 1 from 3 for today and start this 100 as follows. 1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%) 40 points staked, 50 points returned +10 points ROI 25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddsPredictor Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 11.7% return is impressive over 100 bets but what is not clear to me, not read all the posts so apologies if you have already explained, is which factors do you use to decide odds are good value? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 32 minutes ago, OddsPredictor said: 11.7% return is impressive over 100 bets but what is not clear to me, not read all the posts so apologies if you have already explained, is which factors do you use to decide odds are good value? For the bets that make it on here it typically falls into 3 stages in this order: What do the spreads say? - If the spreads suggest a player should be 2/1 to score a goal or try and the actual price is bigger then that bet merits a second look. I'm more excited if 3/1 is on offer than if it's just 11/5. What does the market say? - If only one firm is offering odds greater than that suggested above then it's more likely to be a worthwhile bet than if the majority of firms are doing so. What do the stats say? - If I'm getting better than 2/1 about a player who scores in half the games he plays and today's opponents are no more than average then that would frank it as a solid selection. If the player only scores once in every 4 games and his team are massive underdogs that's probably a swerve. Anything in between requires a degree of subjective decision making. The first stage is essentially how I interpret spread prices relative to fixed odds based on years of betting, reading Kevin Pullein articles (and his book) and using various spreadsheets I've cobbled together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 Italy Women v China Women: 6 points on Giacinti to score at 10/1 2 points on her to score 1st at 28/1 and 1 on her to score 2 or more at 75/1 (All with Fred) Relating this back to the above waffle, comes on to my radar at anything over 4/1 so I think she's slipped under Fred's at those prices. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 Same game, 12 points on Bonansea to score at 10/3 with Spreadex Spreadex rating her chances lower than anyone else on spreads and fixed odds; I was tempted by 3/1 earlier and can't resist now she's been edged out further. Sub 2/1 in a lot of places which is short, I'd probably concur with those firms who pitch her >2/1 but less than 3s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Italy Women v China Women: 6 points on Giacinti to score at 10/1 2 points on her to score 1st at 28/1 and 1 on her to score 2 or more at 75/1 (All with Fred) Relating this back to the above waffle, comes on to my radar at anything over 4/1 so I think she's slipped under Fred's at those prices. All bets voided, perhaps unsurprisingly (though as the email was received about 6 minutes after she scored, the cynic in me wonders if they'd have stood as losing bets). Not my practice to take obviously palpable prices but I just reacted quickly to the team news on this one. With the chance to reflect I did wonder if it would get palped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 Holland Women v Japan Women: 9 points on Spitse to score at 5/1 with Betway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 26, 2019 Author Share Posted June 26, 2019 Whilst it would have been nice to be posting an update with 10/1 and 28/1 winners alas it wasn't to be so 0/2 and -21 points. 1 winner from 5 bets (20%) 61 points staked, 50 points returned -11 points ROI -18.03% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 27, 2019 Author Share Posted June 27, 2019 Hull KR v Hull: 20 points on Kelly to score a try at 6/4 with Lads 10 points on him to score a 1st half try at 4/1 with Lads Seems to be rare for him not to be on offer at an apparently value price! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 Kelly a "non runner" so both bets void and no update to results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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