harry_rag Posted October 7, 2021 Author Share Posted October 7, 2021 2 in the South American games, both 20 point singles on 4-6 cards at 11/10. Venezuela v Brazil and Peru v Chile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 0/2 so far this week. Scotland v Israel: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 23/20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 Went 0/3 this week. 8 winners from the last 22 bets (36.36%). 440 points returns 348 for a loss of 92 points with an ROI of 20.91% Overall total for the thread now looks like this. 285 winners from 822 bets (34.67%). 14154.5 points returns 13926.63 for a loss of 227.87 points with an ROI of -1.61%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 Colombia v Bolivia: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 16, 2021 Author Share Posted October 16, 2021 Last bet lost. Same bet, stake and odds in the Levante v Getafe game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 Last bet won. 2 today, again both 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10. Juventus v Roma Barcelona v Valencia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 Loser in the Italian game but a winner in Spain so went 2-2 this week. 10 winners from the last 26 bets (38.46%). 520 points returns 432 for a loss of 88 points with an ROI of 16.92% Overall total for the thread now looks like this. 287 winners from 826 bets (34.75%). 14234.5 points returns 14010.63 for a loss of 223.87 points with an ROI of -1.57%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 PSG v RB Leipzig: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Las bet won. Same bet, odds and stake in the PSV v Monaco game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 Last bet lost. Atalanta v Udinese: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 5/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 Last bet won. 3 more, same stake and bet at the stated odds. Barcelona v R Madrid at 11/8 Monaco v Montpellier at 11/10 Vizela v Benfica at 11/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 A loser in Spain but the other 2 bets won making it 4-2 for the week. 120 points returned 171 for a 51 point profit. 14 winners from the last 32 bets (43.75). 640 points returns 603 for a loss of 37 points with an ROI of -5.78% Overall total for the thread now looks like this. 291 winners from 832 bets (34.98%). 14354.5 points returns 14181.63 for a loss of 172.87 points with an ROI of -1.2%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 for today, all 20 points on 4-6 cards shown. Getafe v Celta Vigo at 5/4 Gil Vicente v Braga at 11/10 Boavista v Belenenses at 7/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 2 out of 3 yesterday (last one lost). 2 for today, same bet, stake and both at 11/10. R Madrid v Osasuna Nice v Marseille Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 A winner and a loser yesterday, One for today, same bet and stake. Granada v Getafe at 13/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 29, 2021 Author Share Posted October 29, 2021 A winner yesterday, same bet and stake again in PSG v Lille at 11/10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 30, 2021 Author Share Posted October 30, 2021 Winner yesterday, same bet, stake and odds in the Elche v R Madrid game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 30, 2021 Author Share Posted October 30, 2021 Lost. Same again in Valencia v Villareal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 Last bet won, 2 in Spain today, 20 points each on 4-6 cards. Getafe v Espanyol at 5/4 R Sociedad v A Bilbao at 11/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 And one in Italy, same bet and stake. Roma v AC Milan at 23/20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 0-3 yesterday making it 6-6 for the week. 240 points returned 259 for a 19 point profit. 20 winners from the last 44 bets (45.45). 880 points returns 862 for a loss of 18 points with an ROI of -2.05% Overall total for the thread now looks like this. 297 winners from 844 bets (35.19%). 14594.5 points returns 14440.63 for a loss of 153.87 points with an ROI of -1.05%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 tonight in Spain, both 20 points on 4-6 cards at the stated odds. Vallecano v Celta Vigo at 11/10 Levante v Granada at 23/20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 57 minutes ago, harry_rag said: 2 tonight in Spain, both 20 points on 4-6 cards at the stated odds. Vallecano v Celta Vigo at 11/10 Levante v Granada at 23/20 I'm following this bet, but can I ask where you get the stats so you know what games will have a fair chance of red or yellow cards being shown? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: I'm following this bet, but can I ask where you get the stats so you know what games will have a fair chance of red or yellow cards being shown? I'll reply shortly mate. As it's a quiet day I've been taking a look at the ref's and bookings lines in the English, Spanish and Italian games and am just about to post a few bets in the relevant threads. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 @alexcaruso808 My first port of call is the 2 spread firms to see what their bookings quotes are, so I've got a ballpark figure for the bookings expectation in each game (10 per yellow and 25 per red). Tonight, the English game is in for 36 points, the Italian game for 58 and the 2 Spanish games for around 62. I tend to use Soccerway to find out who the ref is (they do have stats but not the best content or format). If it's not shown on there I have to do a bit of googling but they cover most games. Then I use Transfermarkt for the ref stats. Search for the ref then look at his results for the league in question. I usually tot up his overall bookings average then for the last 3 seasons (current +2) to see if there's a trend either way. Then I tot up the 4-6 cards split for the 3 seasons and the over/under/bang on split for the relevant line, be it 40, 50 or 60 etc. I'm more likely to bet when the ref looks unusually strict or lenient. If he looks average for the league then it's less likely (in my opinion) that there will be value to be had. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: @alexcaruso808 My first port of call is the 2 spread firms to see what their bookings quotes are, so I've got a ballpark figure for the bookings expectation in each game (10 per yellow and 25 per red). Tonight, the English game is in for 36 points, the Italian game for 58 and the 2 Spanish games for around 62. I tend to use Soccerway to find out who the ref is (they do have stats but not the best content or format). If it's not shown on there I have to do a bit of googling but they cover most games. Then I use Transfermarkt for the ref stats. Search for the ref then look at his results for the league in question. I usually tot up his overall bookings average then for the last 3 seasons (current +2) to see if there's a trend either way. Then I tot up the 4-6 cards split for the 3 seasons and the over/under/bang on split for the relevant line, be it 40, 50 or 60 etc. I'm more likely to bet when the ref looks unusually strict or lenient. If he looks average for the league then it's less likely (in my opinion) that there will be value to be had. Thanks for the detailed answer. I've never really looked at betting on cards before, I will follow some of your bets while looking at the stats etc, to try and understand why you are making your choices. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: I will follow some of your bets while looking at the stats etc, to try and understand why you are making your choices. The bets I currently post in here are essentially simple system picks while the bets I post in the relevant threads are when I've had time to research the ref stats more. The "system" idea is that where the spreads pitch the bookings at 45 or more, there is a strong chance of there being 4-6 cards and it's worth backing at odds against (though I've set the minimum to 11/10 so I pass up a lot of bets at 21/20). The jury's out on the viability of the system to be honest, it has good spells and bad ones but I'm not sure it's any better than a break even proposition in the long run. Bookings is my most profitable fixed odds market this year; I'll have to see how that breaks down between the "system" picks and the "researched" picks. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 3, 2021 Author Share Posted November 3, 2021 1 out of 2 so far this week. Sheriff Tiraspol v Inter: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 6/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 A winner so 2 out of 3 so far this week. Same bet and stake at 11/10 in tonight's Bundesliga game, Mainz v BMG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 Winner last night, same bet, stake and odds in Espanyol v Granada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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