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100 Value Bets


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Went 0/3 this week.

8 winners from the last 22 bets (36.36%). 440 points returns 348 for a loss of 92 points with an ROI of 20.91%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

285 winners from 822 bets (34.67%). 14154.5 points returns 13926.63 for a loss of 227.87 points with an ROI of -1.61%.

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Loser in the Italian game but a winner in Spain so went 2-2 this week.

10 winners from the last 26 bets (38.46%). 520 points returns 432 for a loss of 88 points with an ROI of 16.92%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

287 winners from 826 bets (34.75%). 14234.5 points returns 14010.63 for a loss of 223.87 points with an ROI of -1.57%.

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A loser in Spain but the other 2 bets won making it 4-2 for the week. 120 points returned 171 for a 51 point profit.

14 winners from the last 32 bets (43.75). 640 points returns 603 for a loss of 37 points with an ROI of -5.78%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

291 winners from 832 bets (34.98%). 14354.5 points returns 14181.63 for a loss of 172.87 points with an ROI of -1.2%.

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0-3 yesterday making it 6-6 for the week. 240 points returned 259 for a 19 point profit.

20 winners from the last 44 bets (45.45). 880 points returns 862 for a loss of 18 points with an ROI of -2.05%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

297 winners from 844 bets (35.19%). 14594.5 points returns 14440.63 for a loss of 153.87 points with an ROI of -1.05%.

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9 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I'm following this bet, but can I ask where you get the stats so you know what games will have a fair chance of red or yellow cards being shown?  

I'll reply shortly mate. As it's a quiet day I've been taking a look at the ref's and bookings lines in the English, Spanish and Italian games and am just about to post a few bets in the relevant threads.

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@alexcaruso808 My first port of call is the 2 spread firms to see what their bookings quotes are, so I've got a ballpark figure for the bookings expectation in each game (10 per yellow and 25 per red).

Tonight, the English game is in for 36 points, the Italian game for 58 and the 2 Spanish games for around 62.

I tend to use Soccerway to find out who the ref is (they do have stats but not the best content or format). If it's not shown on there I have to do a bit of googling but they cover most games. Then I use Transfermarkt for the ref stats. Search for the ref then look at his results for the league in question. I usually tot up his overall bookings average then for the last 3 seasons (current +2) to see if there's a trend either way. Then I tot up the 4-6 cards split for the 3 seasons and the over/under/bang on split for the relevant line, be it 40, 50 or 60 etc.

I'm more likely to bet when the ref looks unusually strict or lenient. If he looks average for the league then it's less likely (in my opinion) that there will be value to be had.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

@alexcaruso808 My first port of call is the 2 spread firms to see what their bookings quotes are, so I've got a ballpark figure for the bookings expectation in each game (10 per yellow and 25 per red).

Tonight, the English game is in for 36 points, the Italian game for 58 and the 2 Spanish games for around 62.

I tend to use Soccerway to find out who the ref is (they do have stats but not the best content or format). If it's not shown on there I have to do a bit of googling but they cover most games. Then I use Transfermarkt for the ref stats. Search for the ref then look at his results for the league in question. I usually tot up his overall bookings average then for the last 3 seasons (current +2) to see if there's a trend either way. Then I tot up the 4-6 cards split for the 3 seasons and the over/under/bang on split for the relevant line, be it 40, 50 or 60 etc.

I'm more likely to bet when the ref looks unusually strict or lenient. If he looks average for the league then it's less likely (in my opinion) that there will be value to be had.

Thanks for the detailed answer.  I've never really looked at betting on cards before, I will follow some of your bets while looking at the stats etc, to try and understand why you are making your choices. 

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7 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I will follow some of your bets while looking at the stats etc, to try and understand why you are making your choices. 

The bets I currently post in here are essentially simple system picks while the bets I post in the relevant threads are when I've had time to research the ref stats more.

The "system" idea is that where the spreads pitch the bookings at 45 or more, there is a strong chance of there being 4-6 cards and it's worth backing at odds against (though I've set the minimum to 11/10 so I pass up a lot of bets at 21/20). The jury's out on the viability of the system to be honest, it has good spells and bad ones but I'm not sure it's any better than a break even proposition in the long run.

Bookings is my most profitable fixed odds market this year; I'll have to see how that breaks down between the "system" picks and the "researched" picks.

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