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SonderjyskE v Lyngby: 20 points on >4.5 cards shown at 2.155 with Uni

For March I'm going to have a go at bookings bets and track them in here. I'll post them in the relevant league thread where it's active but there hasn't been any posts in the Danish thread since June last year.

As for this bet, it's at the least confident end of the scale but just makes the cut. 4-6 cards at a similar price was a contender as was splitting stakes across both. I've decided to favour just this bet.

SX go 51-55 for bookings which makes the line look low for an odds against bet. Also Hills are odds on for >45 points and only 2.15 for >55 points.

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Oi, get orrf my thread! 

1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%) 45 points staked, 52.5 points returned +7.25 points ROI 16.11%

>6 cards in both games so 15 points lost whether staked as a double or 2 singles. First losing day (in 6) had you backed every selection in as a single.

Quick update, just the losing bets to add.

11 winners from the last 36 bets (30.56%). 757.5 points returns 561.5 for a loss of 196 points with an ROI of -25.87%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

195 winners from 636 bets (30.66%). 10484.5 points returns 10085.86 for a loss of 398.64 points with an ROI of -38%

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  • 2 weeks later...

1 winner followed by 3 losers since the last update, -35 points from 80 staked.

12 winners from the last 40 bets (30%). 837.5 points returns 605.5 for a loss of 231 points with an ROI of -27.58%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

196 winners from 640 bets (30.63%). 10564.5 points returns 10130.86 for a loss of 433.64 points with an ROI of -4.1%

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Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bochum: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 23/20 Hills

Spreads go 48-49 for this game which my data suggests makes it 50/50 at worst to see 4-6 cards, ref stats have him pegged as a "middler" and support the coin toss argument. My betting results seem to consistently contradict the data but I'll persevere for a little longer, building up the data and my experience!

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Just the one 20 point loss since the last update.

12 winners from the last 41 bets (29.27%). 857.5 points returns 605.5 for a loss of 251 points with an ROI of -29.27%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

196 winners from 641 bets (30.58%). 10584.5 points returns 10130.86 for a loss of 453.64 points with an ROI of -4.29%

As I've just posted elsewhere, I'm taking a caning on fixed odds bets at the moment and will be doing a "quarterly review" shortly, the outcome of which will determine whether this thread continues in any form or not. On the one hand, there's the question of whether there's any point when I'm tracking every bet I post on here in a dedicated thread anyway and, on the other, there's the pertinent question of whether or not I should ever place another fixed odds bet! :)

Maybe the lesson is "if you can't beat them, join them" and switch to laying, mirroring the transition from buying to selling on the spreads.

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Ross C v Inverness: 20 points on <45 bookings points at 11/8 with Sky Bet

I'm reining in the fixed odds betting but one of the things I'll carrying on with is bookings and those bets will be posted in here. Some will be 4-6 cards bets where I can get 11/10 or more about qualifying selections, most of the rest are likely to be unders bets.

I appreciate this is a televised cup tie and involves the renewal of a local rivalry but I was still surprised to see bookings pitched around the 50 mark. Looking at the fixture history and ref stats I'm happy to take that price about <45 points.

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8 winners from 9 since the last update (just Lens v Lyon that lost), 180 points returns 356 for a profit of 176 points.

20 winners from the last 50 bets (40%). 1037.5 points returns 962.5.5 for a loss of 75 points with an ROI of -7.23%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

204 winners from 650 bets (31.38%). 10764.5 points returns 10486.86 for a loss of 277.64 points with an ROI of -2.58%

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Just 2 from 6 yesterday, with the first 4 bets all losing.

9 winners from 17 since the last update, 340 points returns 411.5 for a profit of 71.5 points.

29 winners from the last 67 bets (43.28%). 1377.5 points returns 1374 for a loss of 3.5 points with an ROI of -0.25%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

213 winners from 667 bets (31.93%). 11104.5 points returns 10898.36 for a loss of 206.14 points with an ROI of -1.86%

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Trying something out here with 10 point bets rather than 20. Essentially favouring the highest under line backable at evens or better.

Benevento v Sassuolo: 10 points on <45 points at 11/10 Sky Bet

Celta Vigo v Sevilla: 10 points on <60 points at evens Sky Bet

Fenerbahce v Gaziantep: 10 points on <4.5 cards at 2.029 with Uni

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