100 Value Bets

[harry_rag]

SonderjyskE v Lyngby: 20 points on >4.5 cards shown at 2.155 with Uni

For March I'm going to have a go at bookings bets and track them in here. I'll post them in the relevant league thread where it's active but there hasn't been any posts in the Danish thread since June last year.

As for this bet, it's at the least confident end of the scale but just makes the cut. 4-6 cards at a similar price was a contender as was splitting stakes across both. I've decided to favour just this bet.

SX go 51-55 for bookings which makes the line look low for an odds against bet. Also Hills are odds on for >45 points and only 2.15 for >55 points.

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St Pauli v Hamburg: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 13/10 with Hills

At what tends to be the minimum odds of 21/20 this would be a swerve. 6/5 feels like the minimum for me so a bit more on top makes this an acceptable bet.

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R Madrid v  R Sociedad: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills

Evens at most for me that this lands in the middle.

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3 losing bets to kick off March, at least the maths are easy, 3 x 20 for a 60 point loss.

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Quick update, just the losing bets to add.

11 winners from the last 36 bets (30.56%). 757.5 points returns 561.5 for a loss of 196 points with an ROI of -25.87%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

195 winners from 636 bets (30.66%). 10484.5 points returns 10085.86 for a loss of 398.64 points with an ROI of -38%

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Hamburg v Holstein Kiel: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 5/4 with Hills.

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Dortmund v Sevilla: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills

Juventus v Porto: 20 points on <40 booking points at 13/8 Sky Bet or PP

Very much led by the ref stats here.

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0-2 yesterday. One for today (staked 25 points in "real money" but I'm sticking to level 20 point stakes for the purpose of this thread).

Man City v Southampton: 20 points on >2.5 AH cards at 11/10 with 365.

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1 winner followed by 3 losers since the last update, -35 points from 80 staked.

12 winners from the last 40 bets (30%). 837.5 points returns 605.5 for a loss of 231 points with an ROI of -27.58%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

196 winners from 640 bets (30.63%). 10564.5 points returns 10130.86 for a loss of 433.64 points with an ROI of -4.1%

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Fortuna Dusseldorf v Bochum: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 23/20 Hills

Spreads go 48-49 for this game which my data suggests makes it 50/50 at worst to see 4-6 cards, ref stats have him pegged as a "middler" and support the coin toss argument. My betting results seem to consistently contradict the data but I'll persevere for a little longer, building up the data and my experience!

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Just the one 20 point loss since the last update.

12 winners from the last 41 bets (29.27%). 857.5 points returns 605.5 for a loss of 251 points with an ROI of -29.27%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

196 winners from 641 bets (30.58%). 10584.5 points returns 10130.86 for a loss of 453.64 points with an ROI of -4.29%

As I've just posted elsewhere, I'm taking a caning on fixed odds bets at the moment and will be doing a "quarterly review" shortly, the outcome of which will determine whether this thread continues in any form or not. On the one hand, there's the question of whether there's any point when I'm tracking every bet I post on here in a dedicated thread anyway and, on the other, there's the pertinent question of whether or not I should ever place another fixed odds bet! 

Maybe the lesson is "if you can't beat them, join them" and switch to laying, mirroring the transition from buying to selling on the spreads.

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Ross C v Inverness: 20 points on <45 bookings points at 11/8 with Sky Bet

I'm reining in the fixed odds betting but one of the things I'll carrying on with is bookings and those bets will be posted in here. Some will be 4-6 cards bets where I can get 11/10 or more about qualifying selections, most of the rest are likely to be unders bets.

I appreciate this is a televised cup tie and involves the renewal of a local rivalry but I was still surprised to see bookings pitched around the 50 mark. Looking at the fixture history and ref stats I'm happy to take that price about <45 points.

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Winner yesterday (just the one yellow for 10 points).

Granada v Villareal: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills

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Napoli v Crotone: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 5/4

Forgive the (immediate) edit but I just posted a load of player assist minutes in here by mistake!

 

Edited April 3, 2021 by harry_rag
Posted in wrong thread

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3 more 4-6 cards bets in today's European games.

Torino v Juventus: 20 points at 11/10

Osasuna v Getafe: 20 points at 13/8

Lens v Lyon: 20 points at 6/5

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3 for today, all in Spain and all 4-6 cards.

Elche v R Betis: 20 points at 11/10

Cadiz v Valencia: 20 points at 11/10

Sevilla v A Madrid: 20 points at 23/20

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8 winners from 9 since the last update (just Lens v Lyon that lost), 180 points returns 356 for a profit of 176 points.

20 winners from the last 50 bets (40%). 1037.5 points returns 962.5.5 for a loss of 75 points with an ROI of -7.23%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

204 winners from 650 bets (31.38%). 10764.5 points returns 10486.86 for a loss of 277.64 points with an ROI of -2.58%

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Karagumruk v Hatayspor: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10

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No joy yesterday, 3 for today, all 4-6 cards again.

Juventus v Napoli: 20 points at 11/10

B Munich v PSG: 20 points at 11/10

R Sociedad v A Bilbao: 20 points at 11/8

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2 out of 3 yesterday (the latter 2). 3 for today, all in the Europa League.

Ajax v Roma, D Zagreb v Villareal and Granada v Man U: 3 x 20 points singles on 4-6 cards, all at 11/10.

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Just 1 from 3 yesterday (Ajax). Looks like just the one for today.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Cracovia Krakow: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10

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France Women v England Women: 20 points on 20+ bookings points at 11/10 with Sky Bet (I also like the 3/1 for 30+).

Spreads are 17-20 so I'm surprised to see odds against for 20 or more points. Ref not necessarily a fanatical card issuer but has shown 5 yellows to England in a previous friendly.

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2 out of 2 yesterday. 2 for today so far, both 4-6 cards shown (may be more if the market is offered).

R Madrid v Barcelona: 20 points at 13/10

Montpellier v Marseille: 20 points at 11/10

 

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Both won yesterday, 5 for today, all 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10.

Valencia v R Sociedad

R Betis v A Madrid

Sampdoria v Napoli

Verona v Lazio

S Lisbon v Famalicao

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Spurs v Man U: 20 points on >4.5 cards at 23/10 with Uni

Whilst my preference is for betting low or middle rather than high, my gut says this could be "tasty" to employ some big Ronesque vernacular! Having looked at the prices I'm happy to take >2/1 about a line that's more typically 7/4.

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Just 2 from 6 yesterday, with the first 4 bets all losing.

9 winners from 17 since the last update, 340 points returns 411.5 for a profit of 71.5 points.

29 winners from the last 67 bets (43.28%). 1377.5 points returns 1374 for a loss of 3.5 points with an ROI of -0.25%

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

213 winners from 667 bets (31.93%). 11104.5 points returns 10898.36 for a loss of 206.14 points with an ROI of -1.86%

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A couple of 4-6 cards bets in tonight's Italian and Spanish games, both 20 points at 11/10.

Benevento v Sassuolo and Celta Vigo v Sevilla.

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Trying something out here with 10 point bets rather than 20. Essentially favouring the highest under line backable at evens or better.

Benevento v Sassuolo: 10 points on <45 points at 11/10 Sky Bet

Celta Vigo v Sevilla: 10 points on <60 points at evens Sky Bet

Fenerbahce v Gaziantep: 10 points on <4.5 cards at 2.029 with Uni

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PSG v Bayern: 20 points on >5.5 cards at 2.029 with Uni

Rationale in the Champions League thread but, essentially, another game where it could "go off big style" and sufficient for me to stray from the usual low or middle bets.

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Osnabruck v Jahn Regensburg: 20 points on 4-6 cards shown at 23/20

Bookings are pitched at 48-52 for this game which, my stats suggest, makes it just a fraction of odds against to land in the middle (anything over 21/20 seems reasonable). The ref has shown 4-6 cards in 15 out of 25 games in this division and has exceeded 50% in each of his 3 seasons.

If you pushed me on an over/under call (based on a line of 45 points or 4.5 cards) I'd plump for over but it's no bet either way at the prices. 15 of his 25 games were over but it's skewed by the middle season where it went 6-1. The other 2 seasons make it look very coin tossy, if that's a word.