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Oi, get orrf my thread! 

1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%) 45 points staked, 52.5 points returned +7.25 points ROI 16.11%

You're too kind, literally!  One does ones best though! Will see if any selections for today.

No joy with the last bet. For today we go with the following in the Dinamo Brest v BATE Borisov game.

23 points on <60 booking points at 5/4 Skybet and 24 on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 Hills.

Ref Kulbakov is a solid low to middle card issuer and you would have only lost once in his last 35 games in this league if you had backed both of those bets. 21 games would have seen 1 of the bets win and 13 both. 

No stats for the teams (head to head or this season so far) suggest an unusually high card count and the teams meet in the cup final on Sunday which could lead to a more cautious game than usual.

if only for that one loss in 35 games stat, this is a clear value bet (or bets) for me.

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3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

No joy with the last bet. For today we go with the following in the Dinamo Brest v BATE Borisov game.

23 points on <60 booking points at 5/4 Skybet and 24 on 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 Hills.

The Hills bet is actually 23/20, price had eased slightly between when I checked and when I placed it. Went off at 23/20.

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  • 4 weeks later...

There is an excellent discussion about value betting, together with analysed data from thousands of value bets. These people went that deep that already found value traps created by bookmakers. It is a situation when you think you have value, but in reality you dont. https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7205.0 Other bettors also posted their experience, some of them claiming having 100.000 Euros value bets. Very insightful and food for thought. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

3 losers since the last update for a loss of 57 points.

22 winners from 68 bets (32.35%). 1138.5 points returns 1151.63 for a profit of 13.13 points with an ROI of 1.15%.

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

101 winners from 368 bets (27.45%). 5344 points returns 5176.88 for a loss of -167.12 points with an ROI of -3.13%.

Was going to call time on the thread given how much has changed over the last few months in terms of what I bet on and the time and inclination I have to carry on posting but I feel I should leave it open for now. It would be good to get to at least the 400 bet mark before I consign it to history.

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On 6/16/2020 at 10:02 AM, agourbet said:

There is an excellent discussion about value betting, together with analysed data from thousands of value bets. These people went that deep that already found value traps created by bookmakers. It is a situation when you think you have value, but in reality you dont. https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7205.0 Other bettors also posted their experience, some of them claiming having 100.000 Euros value bets. Very insightful and food for thought. 

I tried reading that review but nothing happened when i clicked the attachment. Do you have to be a member or is there something else i'm being stupid about?

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3 hours ago, Tennis Picks said:

Get to 400 then! 😆

Got to start somewhere, so here goes with something a little bit old and a little bit new. I've always liked a tilt at the bookings market whether fixed odds or spreads, though if you shown any indication of beating the latter they tend to limit you to silly stakes or selfishly go out of business (there are a few much missed firms who had philanthropic odds setters when it came to card markets). I've also thought for a long time that there are times when value can be had in the total cards market backing the 4-6 cards band at odds against (e.g. local derbies and fierce rivalries or where the ref's stats tend to cluster around those totals). What's new is that I've just been reviewing some data I've been capturing during lockdown which has flagged a cast iron guaranteed way of beating the odds in this market.*

There are 10 selections today so I've put them into doubles for the purpose of the thread but will also note how they perform to level stakes. All selections are 4-6 cards shown in the game, with red cards counting as one card (and a second yellow leading to a red counting as just a single card). All staked as 15 points on the double.

In Spain, the games at Betis and Barcelona, both priced at 21/20.

In Italy, the games at Fiorentina and Genoa priced at 11/10 and 23/20, Atalanta and Bologna priced at 11/10 and 6/5 and Torino and Roma both priced at 21/10.

Elsewhere, the games at Trabzonspor (Turkey) and Aves (Portugal) both priced at 11/10.

* As long as the trends exhibited in my sample carry on in exactly the same way now that real money is being risked!

 

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20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

There are 10 selections today so I've put them into doubles for the purpose of the thread but will also note how they perform to level stakes. All selections are 4-6 cards shown in the game, with red cards counting as one card (and a second yellow leading to a red counting as just a single card). All staked as 15 points on the double.

In Spain, the games at Betis and Barcelona, both priced at 21/20. :ok:ok

In Italy, the games at Fiorentina and Genoa priced at 11/10 and 23/20, :ok:eyesAtalanta and Bologna priced at 11/10 and 6/5 :ok:eyesand Torino and Roma both priced at 21/10.:ok:ok

Elsewhere, the games at Trabzonspor (Turkey) and Aves (Portugal) both priced at 11/10. :ok:eyes

 

7 winners from 10 selections. Unfortunately, the 3 losers all landed in different doubles so it's just the 2 winning doubles rather than the potential maximum of 3.

75 points returns 126.08 for a profit of 51.08 points. If staked as 10 singles at 7.5 points each instead the return would have been 108.75 points so doubles beat singles despite the sub-optimum distribution of the losing bets.

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11 hours ago, harry_rag said:

7 winners from 10 selections. Unfortunately, the 3 losers all landed in different doubles so it's just the 2 winning doubles rather than the potential maximum of 3.

75 points returns 126.08 for a profit of 51.08 points. If staked as 10 singles at 7.5 points each instead the return would have been 108.75 points so doubles beat singles despite the sub-optimum distribution of the losing bets.

Pardon but how did manage to have win in the doubles for the torina roma game if its 4-6 cards?

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11 hours ago, Lameer half said:

Pardon but how did manage to have win in the doubles for the torina roma game if its 4-6 cards?

The bet won because both games had between 4-6 cards shown; 4 at Torino and 6 at Roma. The odds for those games were 21/20 not 21/10 as stated. Settlement reflects the actual odds (all selections being a bit better than evens).

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19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Six more games today for 4-6 cards, in 3 x 15 point doubles, one in Spain, one in Italy and one in Turkey/Portugal.

The games at SPAL and Verona (both 11/10) :eyes :ok

The games at Eibar and A Bilabo (both 23/20) :ok:ok

The games at Besiktas and Tondela (both 11/10) :ok:eyes

4 winning selections from 6 yesterday. Landed the minimum one winning double rather than the maximum two.

45 points returns 69.34 for a profit of 24.34 points. If staked as 6 singles at 7.5 points each instead the return would have been 63.75 points so, once again, doubles beat singles despite not hitting the maximum number of doubles.

Unlucky in Portugal as the bet was sunk by a 7th yellow card deep into stoppage time.

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4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Only 2 selections for the 4-6 cards bets today so just doing 15 points on the double. In Spain and Portugal in the games at Pacos de Ferreira at 6/5 and Sociedad at 21/10.

For some reason I'm predisposed to always type 21/10 instead of 21/20 which is the actual odds. Maybe it's time to give up the fight and go decimal!

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18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Only 2 selections for the 4-6 cards bets today so just doing 15 points on the double. In Spain and Portugal in the games at Pacos de Ferreira at 6/5 and Sociedad at 21/20 :eyes:ok.

One winner so 15 points lost on the double whereas the singles would have returned 15.38 points.

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On 7/11/2020 at 11:35 AM, harry_rag said:

Again just the 2 selections, one each in Spain and Italy. 15 point double on 4-6 cards in the games at Osasuna and Brescia, both at 11/10. :ok :eyes

One winner again so 15 points lost on the double whereas the singles would have returned 15.75 points.

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8 selections today (so far, could be a couple more) for 4 x 15 point doubles on 4-6 cards shown. One in Spain, 2 in Turkey and the rest in Italy.

The games at Leganes (11/10) and Genoa (23/20)

The games at Ankaragucu (23/20) and Fenerbahce (6/5)

The games at Cagliari and Parma (both 11/10)

The games at Udinese (21/20) and Napoli (11/10)

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22 hours ago, harry_rag said:

8 selections today (so far, could be a couple more) for 4 x 15 point doubles on 4-6 cards shown. One in Spain, 2 in Turkey and the rest in Italy.

The games at Leganes (11/10) and Genoa (23/20) :ok :eyes

The games at Ankaragucu (23/20) and Fenerbahce (6/5) :ok:ok

The games at Cagliari and Parma (both 11/10) :eyes :eyes

The games at Udinese (21/20) and Napoli (11/10) :ok:ok

The games at Energetik (11/10) and Fiorentina (21/20) :eyes :ok

6 winners from 10 selections for 2 winning doubles. Could've been better with 3 doubles or worse with just one so reasonable luck.

75 points returns 135.53 points for a profit of 60.53 points. If staked as 7.5 point singles the return would have been 94.88 points so doubles trumps singles again (has done so every day there's been more than 2 selections).

Across the 5 days of betting there have been 19 winning selections from 30 giving 5 winning doubles from 15. 225 points return 330.95 for a profit of 105.95 points. Singles would have returned 298.51 points so doubles doing better so far.

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Update to overall record after this week's bets.

27 winners from 83 bets (32.53%). 1363.5 points returns 1482.58 for a profit of 119.08 points with an ROI of 8.73%.

Overall total for the thread now looks like this.

106 winners from 383 bets (27.68%). 5569 points returns 5507.83 for a loss of -61.17 points with an ROI of -1.1%.

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34 minutes ago, Lameer half said:

Is this a good idea to place the bet using the option #bookingpointsRange 46-60 at 2.65 odd? Need a clarification please,bit confused🙏🏾

That's a very good question. The trouble with the specific 4-6 cards market is that only one firm I'm aware of offers it whereas plenty might offer a mid band like 45-65. That might be value in some or all of these cases as well but I'm not sure. I will have a quick look over my stats to see if any easy conclusions can be drawn.

2 red cards and a yellow = 60 points but is only 3 cards; 1 red with 4 or 5 yellows is >60 points but only 5 or 6 cards, so they're different bets.

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