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harry_rag

100 Value Bets

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2 winners in the RL yesterday but no joy in the other code but a decent day nonetheless. I'll update the running totals tomorrow.

Toronto v Castleford:

11 points on Wallace to score a try at 15/4 with 365

25 points on Eden to score a try at evens with Hills (11/10 with Sportsbook)

14 points on Rankin to score a try at 13/5 with Lads (boost applied but fine at 5/2)

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5 winners from 8 bets since the last update, with 2 non-runners (Jowitt and Briscoe). Winners were French, Brierley, Yaha, Senior and Eden. 111.9 points profit.

11 winners from 28 bets (39.29%). 491.5 points returns 568.8 for a profit of 77.3 points with an ROI of 15.73%.

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Castleford v Wigan:

16 points on Clare at 11/5 with 365

12.5 points on Shenton at 3/1 with 365

11 points on Rankin at 18/5 with Lads

Hull v Hull KR

17 points on Griffin at 21/10 with Lads

(Lads bets placed using price boost but fine at regular price.)

 

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Just the Griffin try so 1 from 5 since the last update. 68.5 points returns 52.7 for a 15.8 point loss.

12 winners from 33 bets (36.36%). 560 points returns 621.5 for a profit of 61.5 points with an ROI of 10.98%.

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One of those occasions where all the value bets seem to be in the same game, let's see how it pans out.

Leeds v Hull KR:

Buy Hull KR hotshots (Minikin, Crooks, Brierley and Kenny-Dowall) for 1 point at 32 with SPIN (25 points per try by named players)

25 points on Handley to score a try at 10/11, 15 on Walker at 5/2 and 12.5 each at 3/1 on Sutcliffe, Lui, Brierley and Kenny-Dowall.

All fixed odds bets available at that price with Fred (Handley Hills also).

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Just about showed a profit courtesy of a try each for Handley and Walker.

One in each of today's two SL games.

Wakefield v Warrington: 16 points on Tom Johnstone to score a try at 9/4 with PP

Hull v St Helens: 17 points on Makinson to score a try at 21/10 with PP

(Both available at slightly better prices with BFS.)

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Tries from Handley, Walker and Johnstone make for 3 winning bets from 9 since the last update. A Minikin try minimised the loss on the hotshots buy. 155 points returns 177.23 for a 22.23 point profit.

15 winners from 42 bets (35.71%). 715 points returns 798.73 for a profit of 83.73 points with an ROI of 11.71%.

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Napoli v Barcelona:

22 points on Messi to score at 13/10 Lads (boosted but fine at 5/4)

Not that often he's this price and, even if this is a game where he shouldn't be odds on to score, I wouldn't be straying that far North with his price!

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RB Salzburg v E Frankfurt:

23 points on Daka to score at 59/50 with 888

18 points on Hee-Chan to score at 9/5 with PP

The game's something of a run chase for Salzburg and it's hard to see neither of those two scoring. Certainly happy to risk it at prices that mean one winner shows a small profit.

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Let's see if any of these can save this from being a blank week.

Salford v Wakefield:

22 points on Evalds to score a try at 11/8 with Hills and 12,5 on Lolohea at 3/1 with Fred

Hull v Catalans:

16 points on Kelly to score a try at 9/4 and 20 on Shaul at 6/4 (both Fred) and 17 points on Folau at 2/1 with Lads

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2 from 8 since the last update (Lolohea and Shaul) with Dodd a non-runner. 150.5 points returns 100 for a 50.5 point loss.

19 winners from 52 bets (36.54%). 896.5 points returns 999.13 for a profit of 102.63 points with an ROI of 11.45%.

As we've reached a month end, seems a good time to update the overall total for the whole thread.

98 winners from 352 bets (27.84%). 5102 points returns 5024.38 for a loss of -77.62 points with an ROI of -1.52%.

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No joy with Gnabry, beginning to think I should just stick to Rugby League bets! Speaking of which;

Leeds v Toronto:

20 points on Briscoe to score a try at 6/4 with Fred

Odds on in places, should probably be somewhere in the middle.

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No joy for Briscoe despite the game being something of a try-fest!

St Helens v Huddersfield:

14 points on Fages to score a try at 13/5 with Lads

17 points on McGillvary to score a try at 21/10 with Lads

Both boosted but fine at 5/2 and 2/1.

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Bristol C v Fulham:

20 points on Mitrovic to score at 6/4 with Fred (under Saturday specials)

Not earth shattering but a decent boost. Not sure I'd have gone quite as big as the next best available 5/4 given how frequently this guy finds the back of the net.

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2 from  since the last update (Turner and Willian) 118.5 points returns 100 for an 18.5 point loss. (Level stakes would have shown a small profit.)

21 winners from 59 bets (35.59%). 1015 points returns 1099.13 for a profit of 84.13 points with an ROI of 8.29%.

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Lens v US Orleans:

20 points on Sotoca to score at 13/8 PP

Not often I'd stray to the second tier of French footy but I'd have him a fair bit closer to evens. Hopefully not a case of looking for value in all the wrong places! :)

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Last bet won. In tonight's Superleague game,

Hull v Warrington:

10 points on a drop goal at 4/1 with Betway

2.4 points on Tuimavave to score a try at 11/4 with 365 and 6.6 on him to score one in the first half at 13/2 with Lads.

Forgive the funny staking on the tryscorer bet, using the anytime as a saver on the first half bet! Only fair to say the drop goal bet was tipped up by someone else but I think the 4/1 (or even 7/2 Hills) is a decent price in a potentially close game. Sneyd for Hull has kicked one in 3 out of 6 games for Hull, Austin for Warrington in 2.

 

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Castleford v St Helens: 

19 points on Lomax to score a try at 7/4 with 888 and 8.5 on him to score a 1st half try at 5/1 with Lads.

Not quite the cash cow he was in the earlier part of lasts season but maybe slightly under rated by those prices.

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Started the week with the only winner (Sotoca goal) followed by 5 straight losers. 66.5 points returns 52.5 for a 14 point loss. This was a week where level stakes would have been much worse.

22 winners from 65 bets (33.85%). 1081.5 points returns 1151.63 for a profit of 70.13 points with an ROI of 6.48%.

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