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Trotter

Points System

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After reading the VDW thread I thought I'd check out another system from decades ago when I first got interested in racing. Basically just a Points system based on last 2 form figures, C, D and CD wins

Last 2 runs

1 = 5 pts

2 = 3 pts

3 = 2 pts

Bonus points

C = 1 pt

D = 1 pt

CD = 3 pts

The problem with the system once you got to know a bit more about the sport was that it took no account of class. For example a horse that had won two Sellers and one had been over 12 furlongs at Epsom would be top rated for the Derby ahead of a horse that had won The Racing Post Trophy and Guineas as it's last two runs. Obviously ridiculous.

But once you start looking behind the points and assessing class and going and all the other variables that don't show up in a pure points system you might as well forget it and just study the race as you normally do. The purpose of a points system (or any system) is to take the subjective element out and throw up random selections that have some logic behind them 

So anyway I had a brainwave ...…… :loon

If you stick to the lowest class of handicap then the form figures and bonus points will almost certainly have been earned in that class or higher ……. you can't have horses with points earned in lower classes of race because there aren't any (they could be Sellers but they're usually on a par with class 6). 

So I thought I'd stick to Class 6 Handicaps on the Flat and Class 5 over Jumps.

Top two rated (in one of the races today there is joint 2nd rated)

 

Here's today's selections ……...

Tues 14/05

Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3

Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB), Aristocracy 5

Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4, Boycie 4

Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5, Avonmore 4

Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5, Babytaggle 5

 

Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest

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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

After reading the VDW thread I thought I'd check out another system from decades ago when I first got interested in racing. Basically just a Points system based on last 2 form figures, C, D and CD wins

Last 2 runs

1 = 5 pts

2 = 3 pts

3 = 2 pts

Bonus points

C = 1 pt

D = 1 pt

CD = 3 pts

 

Clive Holts Fineform by any chance ?

I think I have it and the revised version tucked away somewhere on one of my many pen drives

Used it years ago has its moments

good luck :ok

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2 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Clive Holts Fineform by any chance ?

I think I have it and the revised version tucked away somewhere on one of my many pen drives

Used it years ago has its moments

good luck :ok

Yes, that's exactly what it was ……… :ok

I'm sure it could have been summed up in a paragraph but I think he padded it out to fill a little booklet

I don't remember ever buying it but maybe I did

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1 minute ago, Trotter said:

Yes, that's exactly what it was ……… :ok

I'm sure it could have been summed up in a paragraph but I think he padded it out to fill a little booklet

I don't remember ever buying it but maybe I did

Padded it out to fill a BOOK :eek

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7 hours ago, Trotter said:

Here's today's selections ……...

Tues 14/05

Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3

Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB) (Placed 7/2), Aristocracy 5

Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4 (WON 3/1), Boycie 4 (NR)

Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5 (Placed 6/4), Avonmore 4

Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5 (WON 5/2), Babytaggle 5 (Placed 3/1)

 

Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest

Couple of winners and a few places

I think next time I do this I'm just going to give the top rated and not bother with second rated ones …….. the system can stand or fall by which horse is top rated.

I think that's more meaningful !

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Wednesday selections 

As I'm only doing the top rated I'm not including races with no clear top rated horse

Wed 15/05

Bath 7.55 - Gendarme 7

Bath 8.25 - Act of Magic 9

Perth 7.35 - The Boola Bee 6

Yarm 2.00 - Scandinavian Lady 6

Yarm 3.45 - Cosmic Ray 9

Yarm 4.45 - Irish Times 6

Yarm 5.15 - Space War 6

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I think this was the first racing book I bought. It recorded the performance of the maximum rated (13 points) over the course of a year and it showed a reasonable profit. I checked it once over a number of following years and needless to say it showed a loss. If only racing was that easy !

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20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think this was the first racing book I bought. It recorded the performance of the maximum rated (13 points) over the course of a year and it showed a reasonable profit. I checked it once over a number of following years and needless to say it showed a loss. If only racing was that easy !

I'm hoping that my idea of restricting this to the bottom grade of handicaps will eliminate the main problem with the basic system ……. ie that it took no account of the class of race in which the 'points' had been earned ………. hence the possibility of the Seller winner being top rated for the Derby as in the opening post

Any points against a horse's name will have been this in this class or a higher class because there is no lower class

I'll give it a few days and see how it goes

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Disappointing …….. I've taken out a non runner so left with one win and one place

Wed 15/05

Bath 7.55 - Gendarme 7 - placed 11/4

Bath 8.25 - Act of Magic 9

Perth 7.35 - The Boola Bee 6 - WON 4/5

Yarm 3.45 - Cosmic Ray 9

Yarm 4.45 - Irish Times 6

Yarm 5.15 - Space War 6

 

Only one qualifying race on Thurs …….. it's obviously a high class day's racing !

Thu 16/05

Perth 4.45 - Roll of Thunder 6

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I also have this book,never rated the ratings system if i am honest-it never worked for me.

I am pretty sure Clive Holt brought out a follow up book(profitable winners always back value winners) to this,where his rating method was adjusted, so i assume over time it stopped working for him also.

Nevertheless both were good reads with some unique insights.

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20 hours ago, Trotter said:

Only one qualifying race on Thurs …….. it's obviously a high class day's racing !

Thu 16/05

Perth 4.45 - Roll of Thunder 6

WON 2/1

Race did cut up a bit with a couple of non runners

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On 5/16/2019 at 4:58 PM, Trotter said:

Fri 17/05

Ham 9.05 - Highly Focussed 6

WON 4/1

Few more races on Saturday

Sat 18/05

Bang 2.15 - Change Ur Tune 8

Bang 4.35 - Armattiekan 4

Thirsk 5.40 - Ginger Jam 8

Thirsk 6.10 - Scuzeme 6

Uttox 5.50 - Dovils date 5

Uttox 6.50 - Mister Mister 11

Uttox 8.50 - Agentleman 8


 

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On 5/17/2019 at 9:18 PM, Trotter said:

Sat 18/05

Bang 2.15 - Change Ur Tune 8

Bang 4.35 - Armattiekan 4

Thirsk 5.40 - Ginger Jam 8

Thirsk 6.10 - Scuzeme 6 (WON 11/4)

Uttox 5.50 - Dovils date 5 (WON 11/4)

Uttox 6.50 - Mister Mister 11

Uttox 8.50 - Agentleman 8


 

Couple of winners and a small profit keeps us ahead since I started posting top rated selections only

Wed 15/05 - 6 selections, 1 winner - lost 4.20

Thu 16/05 - 1 selection, won - won 2.00, total - 2.20

Fri 17/05 - 1 selection, won - won 4.00 - total + 1.80

Sat 18/05 - 7 selections, 2 winners - won 0.50 - total + 2.30

 

On to Sunday 19/05

MR 5.45 - Polarbrook 8

Rip 2.35 - Ascot Dreamer 6

Rip 3.10 - Timetodock 3

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Hi Trotter

Finally found the fineform stuff on a pendrive, rules below if you want them

Clive Holt released 3 versions of his fineform formula,

His third and final version was the Fineform Master Formula (Private Handicapping)

Last two outings only
1st = 5pts each win
2nd = 3pts each 2nd
3rd = 2pts each 3rd
4th = 1pt each 4th
*If only one outing of the current season double points above*
Previous course winner(C) = 1pt
Previous distance winner(D) = 2pts
Previous Course & Distance winner (C.D or C&D) = 3pts
In first 3 of betting forecast = 3pts
In top 3 of form ratings = 4pts
The runner with the highest total of points is considered best for that race (Max 20pts)

:ok

Edited by Valiant Thor

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Cheers VT

What I'm finding even with my version is that I'm picking horses at the top of the market

of course because I'm sticking with the lowest grade of handicap this is inevitable as placed and winning form plus course and distance will put any horse at the head of the market in grade 6 handicaps

This is a bit of a flaw in my reasoning ………. as it means you don't get those surprise random 16/1 winners that you might get looking at all races

I think the 'final version' as you've posted it would skew selections even more to the first couple of favourites ……… in any grade of race

To be honest I don't think there's much point in taking subjectivity out and having an objective points system if it just picks the first two favourites...…. you might as well just look at the betting !

I'll stick with my system while it's in profit and give it a few more days to see if it can pick anything that isn't the favourite or second favourite

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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

Cheers VT

What I'm finding even with my version is that I'm picking horses at the top of the market

of course because I'm sticking with the lowest grade of handicap this is inevitable as placed and winning form plus course and distance will put any horse at the head of the market in grade 6 handicaps

This is a bit of a flaw in my reasoning ………. as it means you don't get those surprise random 16/1 winners that you might get looking at all races

I think the 'final version' as you've posted it would skew selections even more to the first couple of favourites ……… in any grade of race

To be honest I don't think there's much point in taking subjectivity out and having an objective points system if it just picks the first two favourites...…. you might as well just look at the betting !

I'll stick with my system while it's in profit and give it a few more days to see if it can pick anything that isn't the favourite or second favourite

The overall top rated Is supposed to be the bet of the day.

Todays For the Master formula with the full 20pts would be ...........

3.50 Naas Peace Charter @ 9/4 PP & Skybet

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22 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

The overall top rated Is supposed to be the bet of the day.

Todays For the Master formula with the full 20pts would be ...........

3.50 Naas Peace Charter @ 9/4 PP & Skybet

.50 Naas Peace Charter @ 9/4 PP & Skybet  2nd :\

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I watched the race …… Peace Charter did beat the favourite easily so maybe the 'match betting' would have been the way to go

The first two of my three selections today have gone off favourite (and got beat) ….. must admit this is putting me off my points system. 

It hadn't really occurred m to me that the way I was doing this would just be picking the favourite which is almost always has done

I think I might scupper it and have a rethink !

I still like the idea of having some form of simple points system but I don't think there's much point if it's just picking the favourite!

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • ahh the Flyer. I used to be a fan   anyone know what the weather in Windsor is like?  gonna mention Polybius in the 7:40, back at the right trip and a generous price, but going dependant. good to soft atm is fine, but won’t want too much rain through the day
    • Just looking at tomorrows fixture and West Indies against Bangladesh. The 9/5 on Bangladesh looks a great price and enough for me to get involved. West Indies have been so hot and cold this tournament but ultimately, once Hope and Gayle go, it turns into a T20 match for these players. That doesn't always work. Bangladesh have been plenty solid enough in this tournament and so I'll take them to win this one. 5pts Bangladesh to beat W.Indies 9/5 Betfair
    • Monday 17/06/2019  Nottingham 08:20 FITZROVIA f/c. 13/8 stake = 10 pts WIN
    • Terrible tipping today. Apologies to anybody that was unfortunate enough to follow. I may have to be more selective in tournaments like these. Although I did lower the points on these. Looking at tomorrow for what it's worth.. Fraser Patrick beat Tom Ford in their only head-to-head 4-1 and they face eachother again tomorrow in the morning. The scot lost his Riga Masters qualifier to fellow scot, Donaldson but he played some decent stuff. Ford had some odd results though end of last season. I'll take Patrick on the handicap.  Next I'll take Xu Si when he plays the out-of-form Andrew Higginson. Higginson was whitewashed in his Riga Masters match and lost a few matches at the end of last season he should have been winning. Xu Si is in abit of form after hitting plenty of centuries at Q-School. next up I'll take Ian Burns against Scott Donaldson. Burns is a very capable player who I had some success backing last season and despite him losing the last head-to-head 4-2, prior to it he had won the prior 2 including a 5-0 whitewash. Finally, I'll take O'Neill to beat Maguire. O'Neill looked really impressive in his beating of Barry Hawkins and Maguire lost to Liam Highfield at the Riga a week ago. You have to wonder if Maguire will take this event seriously. 5pts F.Patrick (+2.5 frames) to beat T.Ford 4/5 boylesports 4pts I.Burns to beat S.Donaldson 15/8 coral 2pts X.Si to beat A.Higginson 6/4 boylesports 2.5pts J.O'Neill to beat S.Maguire 17/5 unibet  
    • Scott Griekspoor to beat Facundo Mena at 2.33 with Pinnacle No reason to have Scott as an underdog in this match. He's the reigning Blois champion and he often delivers good results at home in Netherlands and in France. Last season he even beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-4 in the final so he can play some very high quality tennis the older brother of Tallon Griekspoor.
    • Windsor 7.10 Come On Tier - 10/1 PP e/w thanks Come On Tier - from Lee Carter yard now as he was previously with David Simcock until till May this year, He's not ran for 55 days when he ran at Lingfield 1m AW when he won by 1.25 lengths, His other win came in his 2nd race on a racetrack at Nottingham 1m GD when winning by 3.25 lengths and his very first time on a racetrack was here GS when he came 3rd beaten 1.5 lengths when his new yard 2 years later bring him back here to try and rekindle his turf races again with Sean Levey in saddle
    • Result Doncaster 05:35 MAID IN MANHATTAN.....2nd..6/4 Todays Profit =  - 10.00 pts Current Years Profit 2019 =  + 109.62 pts.   (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2611.00 pts. Profit = + 2511.00 pts   Current Losing Run =  1
    • 3.30 Carlisle - Irish Minister 40/1@bet365
    • Kilbeggan, 19:00, Eimear, 7/2 BV
    • 2nd -  tracked leaders, went 2nd over 5f out, led over 2f out, soon headed, no impression on winner final furlong, kept on Dr Richard Kimble 15.15 Catterick 1 Pt Win @ 9\2 Paddy Power Won 3 times last year. 16/1 and visored for 1st time, last of 8 in handicap at Ripon (12f, good to firm) 11 days ago. Doesn't look in love with the game at present. 
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