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Expected goals

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Hello guys...what does expected goals means? And how we can find out how many goals will be marked during full time. I don't know and can't understand why at some teams it writes +5.55 for example or -5.55. From what i studied the number must be between 0 and 1, 1 meaning the 100% chance to be scored 1 goal. Can anyone give me some detailed explanation please? Thanks.

Edited by Sir Puntalot
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Just google it, there’s loads of explanations out there.

In “old money” expected goals usually referred to how many goals a team was expected to score, e.g. if the spreads quoted 1.4-1.6 for a team’s total goals it meant they were expected to score 1.5 goals. It was an indication of how many goals, on average, they would be expected to score against the opponents in question.

These days, “x-goals” tends to refer to how many goals a team would have been expected to score based on the shots they had in a game. Say team A win 3-0 but the x-goals are 1.5 for them and 3.5 for team B, that tells us, perhaps, that they were lucky to win and that team B were unlucky not to score. A decent chance that a player would be expected to score half the time would be worth 0.5, a hopeful shot from outside the box might be 0.1 and a fluffed sitter might be 0.9. Add them all together to get a team’s total expected goals for a game.

So, while each shot has to have a value between 0 and 1, the total can be anything from 0 to 5.55 and beyond.

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