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BillyHills

2019 Swinton Hurdle/ Victoria Cup - Tips & Trends

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Two big betting races at the weekend, one over Jumps and one on the Flat

400 Ascot

7f totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Class 2) (4yo+)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-05-06 at 13.42.27.png

Trends:

9/10 Aged 4-6
9/10 Rated 88 or above
9/10 Ran within 35 days
8/10 Carried below 9st 5lbs (9st actually)
8/10 Drawn double figures
16/20 finished in first 5 last time
15/20 Ran no more than once this season
14/20 Won at 7f previously
 

______________________________________

310 Haydock

1m7½f (1m7f144y) Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2019-05-06 at 13.38.39.png

Trends:

10/10 Rated between 132-141
9/10 Aged 5-7
8/10 Ran within 35 days
8/10 Carried 11st or less
15/22 Finished in first 6 last time
18/22 Won at 2m previously
16/22 Won further than 2m previously

 

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Victoria cup .......gotta say this race has left me scratching my head .....tried a diff tactic ...rated using my new method then started crossing off horses using strong trends ....4-6 yrs old .....no higher than 96 ....strong form over 7f etc .....left me with just 2 horses ....

Zap 

Ripp orf 

At first i thought why is a horse with form figures ..5 0 in the first 5 in betting against such lofty opposition .....then realised ripp orf won this race last year (at 33/1 ) ....trouble is in such a competitive race i doubt theres been duel winners ever but thats where the figures have led me .....zap is an outsider for fahey so hes no mug and could run well at huge price currently around 33/1 ....ill wait for comfirmed runners but at the moment its ew bets on these 2 only 

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Victoria Cup

9/10 Aged 4-6
We lose Above The Rest, Raising Sand, Nicholas T


9/10 Rated 88 or above
We lose Kaeso


9/10 Ran within 35 days
We lose Comin Through,  Glorious Journey, Remarkable, Cape Byron, Via Seredipity, Kynren, Blue Mist, Sanaadh, Taurean Star


8/10 Carried below 9st 5lbs (9st actually)
We lose Cardsharp, Straight Rite


8/10 Drawn double figures
We lose Green Power, Hajjam, Qaysar


16/20 finished in first 5 last time
We lose Zap, Ripp Orf, George Of Hearts, Alemarat'm


12/20 Ran only once this season
We lose Gallipoli, Lake Volta


Selections:
1pt EW Kimifive 16/1 bet365
1pt EW Presidential 14/1 bet365

 

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Swinton Hurdle

10/10 Rated between 132-141
We lose, Flying Tiger, Cubswin, Kingofthecotswolds, Thistimenextyear, Leoncavallo,
Jenkins, Mister Fisher, Le Patriote

9/10 Aged 5-7
We lose Christopher Wood, John Constable

8/10 Ran within 35 days
We lose Sofias Rock, Champagne City, 

15/22 Finished in first 6 last time
We lose Project Bluebook

16/22 Won further than 2m previously
We lose Fiesole, Dino Velvet

Selections
1pt EW Nietzsche 16/1 bet365
1pt EW Arthington 16/1 bet365

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Victoria Cup

Been looking at age, weight, draw, D winners ……… and ability to act on soft ground

I had Rip Orff as one of my final 3 and he has a fantastic record in big field Ascot 7F handicaps and fits all the trends and acts on soft and is only 2lb higher than his last win ……. but I've got a feeling that last year was his year. He went up a lot in the weights and I'm wary of handicappers who have a terrific year, I think they can't carry on  improving for another season !

So I've gone for ……..

Presidential 9/1

Alemaratalyoum 25/1

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On 5/8/2019 at 7:41 AM, richard-westwood said:

Victoria cup .......gotta say this race has left me scratching my head .....tried a diff tactic ...rated using my new method then started crossing off horses using strong trends ....4-6 yrs old .....no higher than 96 ....strong form over 7f etc .....left me with just 2 horses ....

Zap 

Ripp orf 

At first i thought why is a horse with form figures ..5 0 in the first 5 in betting against such lofty opposition .....then realised ripp orf won this race last year (at 33/1 ) ....trouble is in such a competitive race i doubt theres been duel winners ever but thats where the figures have led me .....zap is an outsider for fahey so hes no mug and could run well at huge price currently around 33/1 ....ill wait for comfirmed runners but at the moment its ew bets on these 2 only 

5th ....got the ew 

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