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Tennis Betting System


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After missing the winners today that didn't drift enough, I will be trying to go with pre-match prices and they do come as value anyway. As @liero1 asked and I said that I wanted the extra value but maybe I am missing out on some winners by trying to get the extra. 

Changing Bertens to taking current price, 2.28 on Betfair

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A basically level day yesterday. As I thought with Bertens she didn't drift enough to match at 2.7 so happy to have dropped and taken SP. I will be focusing on just WTA now like I have done in more successful times in the past. 

I will post most picks and opinions in the tennis tips now instead of updating this spreadsheet all the time. 

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  • Tennis Picks changed the title to Tennis Trading/Betting Diary

I will continue posting here with some of the trades I am doing. Just for interest, maybe some discussion about things I do wrong and someone can teach me to be better. 

I love a stat. I tend to use stats more than just opinion because so often my opinion is wrong lol. 

Voegele v Haddad Maia

Haddad Maia won the first set but was down a break in the second. Despite this, her odds were still about 1.53 which was close to SP. 

I checked my stats for Voegele. As the underdog, after losing the first set she is 0-16 going back just over a year. 1.53 a set up is value to me so got involved. 

Haddad Maia is 40-11 when fave and winning the first set as well so should be lower than 1.53.

But this was a value bet that lost. I was actually a witness to Voegele doing the unthinkable and pulling it back to win!

 

 

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I put my thoughts about Osuigwe in the tennis tips thread. I thought she would win but wanted to get a slightly higher price (maybe 1.5-1.6) in play. After Voegele had finished I swapped over and she was 1.74, a set down but 3-0 up in the second so jumped on. 

 

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And Liu retired just after so that was a nice stroke of luck. It's always crap to be on the wrong side of a retirement. I rode it this time. 

In profit so far today. Have a bit of running about to do now but might be back about later. Hopefully for Bertens match. 

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I tried to clear some of my liability early in the second set at 1.17 but she was sitting just above that. Then she was broken. 

I sat and waited. A little bit nervy when Sloane had three set points but she fought back and saved them all. 

Next time she came that low after breaking Stephens I got to clear some of the risk and was happy to sit out the rest. 

As I mentioned earlier her record at these odds is great, she performs better than the market gives her credit for. A nice profit at the end. 

 

 

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Laying Sorribes Tormo @1.47 against Jabeur.

Jabeur hasn't played for a while since losing to Stephens in Miami. She likes the clay though and is 111-44 on it. When starting as the dog, Jabeur's last five defeats have been against Stephens, Svitolina, CSN, Kasatkina, and Vekic. 

Sorribes Tormo isn't as good as that list. Tormo won in three sets against Arruabarrena in Madrid before losing to Osaka but lost to Petkovic and Lepchenko the last two times out before that. 

Jabeur leads the h2h 3-1 although they've played only once since 2018 and that was on grass.

It all depends on how rusty Jabeur is but she is no stranger to the dirt and will surely have been practising on it before today's match.

Starting with the lay as I don't think Sorribes Tormo will break early and run away with it. I will try to green up after a break or if Jabeur is starting brightly maybe after the first set. I will watch and evaluate. 

 

 

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Zidansek an early break down against Stefanini so backing at 1.26

Purely taking advantage of a slow start I think. She has already broken back by the time I have written this. 

Now cleared my liability at 1.05.

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Anisimova v Potapova

Anisimova had a great win in Bogota going three sets nearly every match and against Kostyuk in Madrid where she lost. She was very short odds for most of those three-setters in Bogota. 

She underperforms (5-6) at these odds but most were from years ago where the young upcoming star always gets overhyped and there are not many matches to look at anyway. 

Potapova isn't scared of banging out some three-set matches either, also beating Sevastova recently as a big underdog. She hasn't been very consistent recently. 

Anisimova has the better record on clay, she has the recent win in Bogota but she still makes things hard for herself. 

Starting with a lay of Anisimova @1.58 on Betfair

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OK, I hit a bit of luck again with Anisimova. I didn't set my lay to remain when the market went in play as I was using Geeks Toy and forgot. I came back and she had broken early so I got a lay on @1.25 ish with the rest.

I cleared some liability early in the second set but ended with a small loss as I was hoping Potapova could grab the second set. Not to be this time. 

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Backing Cornet @1.58 vs Linette

Linette is in crap form. She's 7-14 on clay against players ranked above her. 

She's lost five of her last six matches with her win coming against Bolsova (#140) and lost the first set there. 

Cornet is not flying at the moment but she has the skills to not get beat here. She is 13-2 on clay against players ranked below her but in the top 100.

I can't see Linette winning in two easy sets so should be chances to clear liability or green up on both. 

 

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Shouldn't have let greed take over and greened out early on. Thought Cornet would walk it after the first set but it's Cornet after all. She now can't anything on Linettes serve and I have to head out so taking a small red and learning the lesson to get out as early as possible. 

 

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Morning picks. I have added the scores that are generated by the algorithm when making the selections. Mainly so I can analyse the data more in the future. 

Selections are listed with the stake. Most of them are at the current price, a few are a few ticks higher. 

 

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  • Tennis Picks changed the title to Tennis Betting System

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