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Tennis Picks

Tennis Betting System

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2 hours ago, Tennis Picks said:

Yes, it's one big accumulated performance indicator. The recency of the matches doesn't matter. 

I take extra ticks, (sometimes only 25/30, it's not always 50), because it's extra value. Gasquet 3.1 and Pouille 3.3 both won having drifted that far pre-match. They both won (and in straight sets I think).

Were they actually more likely to lose 30 mins before the start than 3 hours before the match? Maybe, if some injury news came out or quote saying they felt tired etc, but more than likely a favourite had lost a previous match and people were chasing losses by piling into the next fave that's playing. I know Dimitrov lost before one of the matches so maybe that had something to do with it?

But even throughout the match, I know technically they're more likely to lose because the opponent has more points but if a player goes a break down in the first are they actually more likely to lose? or does the match have so many fluctuations that a break doesn't matter? 

Now, if a player breaks at 4-4 in the third set then you will see a massive odds change. They're more likely to win because it's so close to the end. I try to avoid getting too involved in the in-game details. So often I back a player at SP and see them trade higher. Why not grab that extra value? 

A few will not get matched as you can see from the results but I think the amount that gets matched at the higher price more than cover it and with extra on top. 

So in a nutshell, the markets tend to be fairly efficient, long term, with regards to SP and the end result. What happens in between doesn't matter for this. I find matches where there is a small (or hopefully large) discrepancy in their long term results (their career) and what the market thought about their chances. 

It takes time to analyse the form, how tired they are, injuries, their opponents, the conditions etc, and it's all been done for us in the price, it's all included already by everyone who is betting and I trust their judgement (most of the time)

It's how the player performs when the market gives them a certain chance to win which is where I come in. 

For example. Albert Ramos Vinola, when SP is an average of 1.6, he *should* win 62.5% of his matches if the markets are efficient. I can tell you he's only won 58% of those matches. 25% of them when playing on hard courts. 

Serena Williams, when an average of 1.2 should win 83% but has actually won 87%. Take this out to 1.4 and she should win 71.4% of the matches but is at just 63%. Do people give her more chance of winning when they should?

I take that info, mix it with my secret sauce handed down through generations and use it to place my bets. :hope

 

thanks much appreciated. just curious because I did test something similar (wanted to message you but god knows how that works). Although I did more of an overall performance indicator, taking an average price into account - thinking about your approach, don't you find that mostly for most players you only get a few matches per odds price? e.g. a player might have been priced at 2.5 three times his career but that is way too low of a statistical number to tell us anything no matter if he won 0 or 3 of those..?

 

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After missing the winners today that didn't drift enough, I will be trying to go with pre-match prices and they do come as value anyway. As @liero1 asked and I said that I wanted the extra value but maybe I am missing out on some winners by trying to get the extra. 

Changing Bertens to taking current price, 2.28 on Betfair

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A basically level day yesterday. As I thought with Bertens she didn't drift enough to match at 2.7 so happy to have dropped and taken SP. I will be focusing on just WTA now like I have done in more successful times in the past. 

I will post most picks and opinions in the tennis tips now instead of updating this spreadsheet all the time. 

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I will continue posting here with some of the trades I am doing. Just for interest, maybe some discussion about things I do wrong and someone can teach me to be better. 

I love a stat. I tend to use stats more than just opinion because so often my opinion is wrong lol. 

Voegele v Haddad Maia

Haddad Maia won the first set but was down a break in the second. Despite this, her odds were still about 1.53 which was close to SP. 

I checked my stats for Voegele. As the underdog, after losing the first set she is 0-16 going back just over a year. 1.53 a set up is value to me so got involved. 

Haddad Maia is 40-11 when fave and winning the first set as well so should be lower than 1.53.

But this was a value bet that lost. I was actually a witness to Voegele doing the unthinkable and pulling it back to win!

 

 

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I put my thoughts about Osuigwe in the tennis tips thread. I thought she would win but wanted to get a slightly higher price (maybe 1.5-1.6) in play. After Voegele had finished I swapped over and she was 1.74, a set down but 3-0 up in the second so jumped on. 

 

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Edited by Tennis Picks

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And Liu retired just after so that was a nice stroke of luck. It's always crap to be on the wrong side of a retirement. I rode it this time. 

In profit so far today. Have a bit of running about to do now but might be back about later. Hopefully for Bertens match. 

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I tried to clear some of my liability early in the second set at 1.17 but she was sitting just above that. Then she was broken. 

I sat and waited. A little bit nervy when Sloane had three set points but she fought back and saved them all. 

Next time she came that low after breaking Stephens I got to clear some of the risk and was happy to sit out the rest. 

As I mentioned earlier her record at these odds is great, she performs better than the market gives her credit for. A nice profit at the end. 

 

 

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Laying Sorribes Tormo @1.47 against Jabeur.

Jabeur hasn't played for a while since losing to Stephens in Miami. She likes the clay though and is 111-44 on it. When starting as the dog, Jabeur's last five defeats have been against Stephens, Svitolina, CSN, Kasatkina, and Vekic. 

Sorribes Tormo isn't as good as that list. Tormo won in three sets against Arruabarrena in Madrid before losing to Osaka but lost to Petkovic and Lepchenko the last two times out before that. 

Jabeur leads the h2h 3-1 although they've played only once since 2018 and that was on grass.

It all depends on how rusty Jabeur is but she is no stranger to the dirt and will surely have been practising on it before today's match.

Starting with the lay as I don't think Sorribes Tormo will break early and run away with it. I will try to green up after a break or if Jabeur is starting brightly maybe after the first set. I will watch and evaluate. 

 

 

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Zidansek an early break down against Stefanini so backing at 1.26

Purely taking advantage of a slow start I think. She has already broken back by the time I have written this. 

Now cleared my liability at 1.05.

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Anisimova v Potapova

Anisimova had a great win in Bogota going three sets nearly every match and against Kostyuk in Madrid where she lost. She was very short odds for most of those three-setters in Bogota. 

She underperforms (5-6) at these odds but most were from years ago where the young upcoming star always gets overhyped and there are not many matches to look at anyway. 

Potapova isn't scared of banging out some three-set matches either, also beating Sevastova recently as a big underdog. She hasn't been very consistent recently. 

Anisimova has the better record on clay, she has the recent win in Bogota but she still makes things hard for herself. 

Starting with a lay of Anisimova @1.58 on Betfair

Edited by Tennis Picks

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OK, I hit a bit of luck again with Anisimova. I didn't set my lay to remain when the market went in play as I was using Geeks Toy and forgot. I came back and she had broken early so I got a lay on @1.25 ish with the rest.

I cleared some liability early in the second set but ended with a small loss as I was hoping Potapova could grab the second set. Not to be this time. 

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Backed Begu against Gavrilova mid way through second set @1.45.

Gavrilova has lost 20 of her last 21 matches when she lost the first set. On top of that, Begu is 74-5 on clay when winning the first set. 

Bit of value I think. 

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