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I think the above is a fair assessment. Against Martic, Vondrousova started to choke big time by being passive and serving poorly, but recovered just in time for Martic to have her own mini-choke. Konta is a bit more stable usually, but it's not something I'd like to trust pre-match. As for the second match, it really is a hard task for Anisimova mentally, she could really use a day off here.

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6 minutes ago, Stegosaurus said:

Surely the only reasonable conclusion is that there’s no bets to be had on the remaining three matches in the women’s draw. 

Any of the four could win the tournament, or lose their semi final.

We have no concept of how good the two teenagers really are, or how far they can really go, as this is their first time at this stage.

Similarly, we have no concept of how good Johanna Konta actually is on clay, as there is no logic or previous seasons to base it on. Somehow she is suddenly good on clay, from being barely able to win a match on the surface before this season. We don’t know how good though, as we have nothing to base it on. Her performance against Sloane Stephens was sensational. 20 points out of 21 won on her serve in the second set - only service point she lost in that set was a double fault. We have no idea if she will get near that level again though.

Ashleigh Barty is the only one that we could perhaps get some kind of a read on - even then not very much of a read on her abilities on clay - but that’s irrelevant if we have nothing to go on on how good the other three are.

I hope that makes sense, but the point I’m trying to make is that surely the only conclusion here is that there is no value to be had on the rest of the women’s tournament. NO BETS from here on in please folks.

And I was so sure about Barty...

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My feelings after watching Stephens vs Muguruza were "Wow if Sloane plays in a similar way than today she will be in the Final for sure". Now, after watching Konta destroying Sloane with the best match i have seen from her (on clay..!) my feelings are "Wow, if she plays and serve like she did today she will win RG! Well, i will not fall in the trap again, no bet for me in this one. If i was forced to bet in one of the WTA semifinal matches it will be for Anisimova because is the better payed and shes too young so there will be no pression on her (and no nerves considering that she has win over Sabalenka and Halep..), the pression will be on Barty. 

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WTA Bol 125k

Tamara Zidansek 2.10 v Timea Bacsinszky

I don't think Zidansek has started off great in her first two matches. It took her time to get into both matches but she eventually got the job done. She's the form player out of the two this year on clay, finalist here last year. Timea hasn't really been impressive on clay this year, also had two soft matches to come into this (Nao Hibino and Anna Tatishvili). Also bombed out of the French to Kurumi Nara in qualifying. There is value imo in the slight outsider whose massive forehand is a weapon when on and is fairly quick in her movement

Edited by KennyDelight
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I don't know - Konta at least had some form going into the FO - a final in Rome.

But I guess as always is whether she can maintain her level that she did against Stephens....but her opponent in the SF is probably easier for Konta than Stephens in the sense that Stephens is a proven 'big stage' player. Also Konta beat this opponent in Rome. However as @darko08 said, the WTA side is so unpredictable, who really knows...

Edited by South_African_Punter
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3 hours ago, eros said:

So, nothing can go wrong. :D

Thanks mate, i wouldn't bet without your opinion.

 

2 hours ago, vvararu said:

It sounds like you are connected to the universe and get signals from somewhere far away :)

Universe called math, but i'm concluding that users analysis makes it much much better.

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17 minutes ago, Stegosaurus said:

Behave - there was no way to predict who would win either match today, as we saw with how they both panned out. Both matches could have gone either way, and both nearly went the opposite way to what they did.

Maybe there's no way for YOU to predict. Like I said I usually do OK picking winners unless it's set betting where I'm crap. 

If I was to choose the set betting picks today I would have picked Barty 2-0 and Vondrousova 2-1 so would have lost them both. Now I stick to just match odds nearly all the time. Pic attached. I don't just make things up. 

Capture.PNG

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I know I never mentioned it but I backed Vondrosouva at the start At 40-1 so getting to the final it is a 20-1 to be in the final,what with my darts bet winning yesterday all is looking good.I might have a saver on the  set match betting in the final as they are better odds than backing a player to win the match.GoodLuck.

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6 minutes ago, notanotherdonkey said:

I know I never mentioned it but I backed Vondrosouva at the start At 40-1 so getting to the final it is a 20-1 to be in the final,what with my darts bet winning yesterday all is looking good.I might have a saver on the  set match betting in the final as they are better odds than backing a player to win the match.GoodLuck.

Good shout. Yeah I would cover that bet with some bets on the final, win either way then!

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Cheers, was just about to do that myself! :ok

On another note, if the tennis association is fair, they should default Djokovic for all his antics today. So pathetic - and he's supposed to be the number one. Leaving the court without an official umpire call is one thing, leaving the stadium is something else entirely.

Edit: Apparently I'm not alone thinking this, most of the commentators I've heard think that it was ridiculous to suspend the play for the day so early. Really hoping Thiem copes with the situations and wins for fairness sake.

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54 minutes ago, eros said:

I can't understand why Vondrousova should be the outsider tomorrow. Barty was not good today and the conditions here don't suit her. Vondrousova has beaten the much tougher players than Barty and to me she's the better clay court player.

Vondrousova @ 2.40 Pinnacle

10/10

Interesting. Barty has played 4 american players (Collins, Kenin, Keys and Anisimova). All of them have hard courts as their favorite surface so the only "clay" courter that she has played here is Petko.. She has dropped 2 sets (Kenin and Anisimova). W/L record on clay: 45-24

Vondrousova has played against Potapova, Carla Suárez (pure claycourter), Sevastova (W/L record of 230-95 on clay), Martic (the player with most wins on clay this season) and Konta (not a claycourter but the match she played against Stephens was absolutely amazing..). All of them in straight sets! W/L record on clay: 72-19

I repeat what i say for the Anisimova-Barty match, the pressure will be on Barty again (she lost the first set when she was 5-1, 15-40..!). Vondrousova is the youngest player, i have not seen her playing nervous (her comeback against Martic in the first set was so good) and like you said, she's a very good claycourter.

I don't know if i will bet on this match but if finally I do this will be my bet for sure.

 

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5 minutes ago, darko08 said:

i have not seen her playing nervous

She did get really nervous at one point in the second set against Martic when she was on serve, produced a double fault with both attempts almost bouncing on her own half. Even admitted it in an interview, but she seemed to do well after that and today. I'd certainly agree that Barty should feel more pressure.

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4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

She did get really nervous at one point in the second set against Martic when she was on serve, produced a double fault with both attempts almost bouncing on her own half. Even admitted it in an interview, but she seemed to do well after that and today. I'd certainly agree that Barty should feel more pressure.

Yep, thats true, i remember that. I can't imagine any player destroying the other (both have been playing so well and have a lot of variety) but taking a look at the opponents that they had looks like Vondrousova's way was tougher.

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Marius Copil to beat Dan Evans at 2.63 with Pinnacle

I've checked Dans grass statistics and he's 14-11 on grass on the challenger tour. Marius is 12-5 on grass on the challenger tour. They have met once before in 2016 and it's was on grass in Surbiton and Marius won easily in straight sets. Marius haven't droped a set all week and toyed with Matt Ebden yesterday. He's better than Dan on grass and should have more than a decent chance of winning this matchup again.

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6 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Marius Copil to beat Dan Evans at 2.63 with Pinnacle

I've checked Dans grass statistics and he's 14-11 on grass on the challenger tour. Marius is 12-5 on grass on the challenger tour. They have met once before in 2016 and it's was on grass in Surbiton and Marius won easily in straight sets. Marius haven't droped a set all week and toyed with Matt Ebden yesterday. He's better than Dan on grass and should have more than a decent chance of winning this matchup again.

I've got Evans as 17-12 in challengers on the grass, going all the way back to 2007, all Nottingham, Surbiton and two Manchester matches. 

And in their first meeting Evans took 0/5 break points. He needs to do better than that to win. I've attached a spreadsheet screenshot of his grass results for you. 

Capture.PNG

 

Copil is also a more impressive 15-5 on grass court challengers. I've added his results for you too. 

Capture.PNG

Edited by Tennis Picks
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17 hours ago, eros said:

I can't understand why Vondrousova should be the outsider tomorrow. Barty was not good today and the conditions here don't suit her. Vondrousova has beaten the much tougher players than Barty and to me she's the better clay court player.

Vondrousova @ 2.40 Pinnacle

10/10

I have a signal from value radar so i'm on board!

Vondrousova to beat Barty at 2.46 with Pinnacle

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