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StevieDay1983

2019 Cricket World Cup

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West Indies Vs India :

It's going to be hard to find any kind of value in this match. West Indies are already out. Gayle looks like he can't be bothered. Well, they all do to be fair. Lewis is out. Andre Russell is out. Everything screams "INDIA!" in this one and i'm not going to argue with that. The match-line just doesn't appeal. I can't touch anything that includes 6s because on their day, West Indies hit them for fun, so for me I'll look at top batsman bets.

For West Indies, Hope seems to be the only guy that settles in and tries to accrue runs. The only batsman who isn't playing a T20 match and I am going to take him to be top batsman tomorrow. 

If West Indies bat first and fall to pieces, India could well only need 3 batsmen to do the job so with this bet I'm probably hoping that India start with the bat. I'm going to take a punt on Pant. I'm not 100% sure he will play tomorrow but if he does, he likes playing West Indies. In the tour against them in India late last year, he managed scores of 92 in both matches. 

3pts Hope to be top West Indies batsman 10/3 betfair
2pts RR Pant to be top India batsman 5/1 marathon

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No Pant today which is a shame because that middle order was crying out for Pant to deliver. West Indies look so bad. I was tempted to go India most 6s today and I wish I did. They just don't look like they can be bothered. 

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Pakistan v Afghanistan (on Saturday)

Pakistan's best two batsmen imo are babar azam and haris sohail

the two openers are inconsistent and hafeez a little reckless

sohail has scored 68 and 89 in his last two innings and whilst I think babar is the most likely to be top Pakistan batsman at 7/2, sohail is surely too big at 7/1 with unibet /888

the danger to the tip is Afghanistan bat first and don't post a competitive score as sohail comes in at 5, nevertheless:

bet: haris sohail top Pakistan batsman at 7/1

Edited by waynecoyne

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Sri Lanka Vs South Africa :

Normally I would be saying South Africa all day. Their head-to-head against Sri Lanka just says it all. But, South Africa look really poor at the moment and although Sri Lanka are by no means playing amazing, that extra motivation that they could potentially make a top 4 spot may push them on here.

Sri Lanka will need everybody on form tomorrow. Malinga will have to bowl like he did against England. All the batsmen must be up for it and totally committed and concentrated.

I'll take a small chance on Sri Lanka. I'll also take Malinga Man Of The Match. They will need him to be on fire in this match. I'll finish with an outside bet on Morris to be top batsman for South Africa. Van Der Russen looks another solid bet at 6/1 but i'll stick with Morris at a huge price.

4pts Sri Lanka to beat South Africa 15/8 betway
1pt L.Malinga Man Of The Match 16/1 ladbrokes

0.5pts C.Morris top SA batsman 33/1 ladbrokes

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On 5/23/2019 at 2:03 PM, harry_rag said:

Right, I've done some analysis looking at the last 4 World Cups and focusing on games played between the 10 teams taking part this year. In total, there have been 103 games between those 10 teams (between 23 and 29 in any one tournament). This year, there will be 45 games between those ten teams (45 round robin and 3 knock out).

Over those 4 World Cups, there have been 4 hat tricks in games between the 10 teams (and another 3 in other games). There were 2 (0) in 2015, 0 (2) in 2011, 1 (0) in 2007 and 1 (1) in 2003. On that basis, I'm happy to take 6/4 about there being at least 1 hat trick this year.

:okMissed it yesterday but see that Boult did the honours for this bet. Starc and Cummins have also covered the 30+ wickets line with something to spare. One or two others still in the mix as we approach the end of the group stage.

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England Vs New Zealand :

I think England here all day. With Roy back it has steadied the top order down and with this being such a big game I think Roy, Bairstow and Roy can all score well here today. I'm taking England to win and get the most 6s at just shy of evens. I'll also take Kane top scorer for NZ.

6pts England to win and Most 6s 5/6 betfair
4pts K.Williamson top batsman for NZ 9/4 Paddypower

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What a bizarre way for Kane Williamson to go out. Never would have thought the other bet would have won with just 1 six on the scorecard but thanks to Bairstow and the England bowlers it was the only six.

Afghanistan Vs West Indies -
Value has to be on Afghanistan. Both out already ofcourse and Afghanistan losing every one of their 8 matches but West Indies just do not look they can be bothered. I've had the same kind of reasoning for laying them throughout the last month and I'll continue to back any team that play them. Afghanistan have had their moments in this world cup and they have enough power to beat West Indies.

5pts Afghanistan to beat West Indies 16/5 betfair

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29 minutes ago, Fader said:

What a bizarre way for Kane Williamson to go out. Never would have thought the other bet would have won with just 1 six on the scorecard but thanks to Bairstow and the England bowlers it was the only six.

Well done on the win. Another antepost bet landed for me as Root smashes (well, bumps up against) the 500+ runs barrier! :lol

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On 6/24/2019 at 2:40 PM, harry_rag said:

I spent half the tournament thinking this was a proper mugs bet until I realised he was shown a "Gulbadin" on the scorecards when I was looking for Naib! :$

It's actually in reasonable shape after 7 innings as he's on 9 with the others on 7, 6, 5 and 4. Fingers crossed he can stay in front over the remaining couple of games.

Naib nabbed on the line by Nabi! Fell 1 wicket short. He only bowled 3 overs today. I blame the captain! ;)

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Pakistan Vs Bangladesh :
Very different kind of scenario today in the sense that if Bangladesh bat first, Pakistan are instantly out. Pakistan need to win by 300 odd runs and it's just not going to happen. With that in mind I think there is some value on Bangladesh. Yesterdays gamble on Afghanistan didn't come off but it was a very close match in which I still thnik Afghanistan would have won if they batted first. If Bangladesh DO bat first, I think it's even more likely they win.

I'll also take Al-Hasan as top batsman for Bangladesh. I'll take a long-shot for Pakistan in Sohail.

4pts Bangaldesh to beat Pakistan 13/8 betfred
2pts Al-Hasan top Bangladesh batsman 11/4 bet365
1pt Sohail top Pakistan batsman 7/1 betfair

 

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Sorry guys. Had abit of a cold last few days. Al Hasan done the business atleast in the Bangladesh match. I didn't see much I liked in the match today. I fancied India to win quite easily. Annoyingly, I would have taken Kane as top batsman but hey ho. I'm just looking at the match Thursday. I'll certainly have something for that match.

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Australia v England

Alex Carey has been in good form despite batting at no. 7

In the last 2 games he has scored 85 v South Africa (2nd only to warner) and 71 v New Zealand (2nd to Khawaja).

With injuries to Khawaja and possibly Stoinis i'm hoping that he is moved up the order which will give him more time.

The Aussies say they won't do this but they wouldn't tell us if they were thinking of doing this (witness the attempts at mind games).

I think that he is overpriced and have backed him to be top Aussie batsman at 14/1 with betfred (16/1 with blacktype).

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Australia Vs England :

With India struggling so much currently this could well be a "winner takes all" kind of match, with no disrespect to New Zealand. I think either of these teams would beat New Zealand and ofcourse in a matter of an hour these teams will know who they would face in a final. Perhaps it brings an added bit of pressure. 

In the group-stage match between these two, Australia won ofcourse but Finch scoring 100 and England scoring just 39 for 4 wickets really dented any chance. England also was missing Roy as opener. I think things will be different tomorrow and I'm backing England to win.

England have a fantastic record at Edgbaston and Australia quite the opposite. Not winning on the ground since 2001 believe it or not. 

England bat much deeper than Australia and if Warner/Finch go early or if Roy/Bairstow get going early (whichever way the toss goes) then England should be well on their way. 

I am also going to take Carey as an outsider top batsman as I think Australia after the top 2 are very weak. Smith hasn't come to the party really in this world cup.

5pts England to beat Australia 4/5 betfred
1pt A.Carey top Australia batsman 16/1 Blacktype
1pt B.Stokes top England batsman 10/1 bet365
1pt J.Archer Man Of The Match 14/1 betway

 

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I've been persuaded to join the Carey plunge! :)

Had a bit on the top Aus bat at 14/1 and have bought his player performance at 40 with Spreadex (1 point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket and 25 per stumping). I make his average 61 and that he's covered tomorrow's spread 8 times in 9 matches.

I've also had an interest in 3 player performances with 888, all at 17/20.

Root >45.5 (averages 78.4 and gone over in 5 out of 9)

Roy >41.5 (58.5 4 out of 6)

Warner >45.5 (75.3 and 6 out of 9).

Those lines all look low if you use the spreads as a guide, lowest sell prices being 57, 49 and 53 respectively.

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I've been persuaded to join the Carey plunge! :)

Had a bit on the top Aus bat at 14/1 and have bought his player performance at 40 with Spreadex (1 point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket and 25 per stumping). I make his average 61 and that he's covered tomorrow's spread 8 times in 9 matches.

I've also had an interest in 3 player performances with 888, all at 17/20.

Root >45.5 (averages 78.4 and gone over in 5 out of 9)

Roy >41.5 (58.5 4 out of 6)

Warner >45.5 (75.3 and 6 out of 9).

Those lines all look low if you use the spreads as a guide, lowest sell prices being 57, 49 and 53 respectively.

carey's performance looks low @harry_rag seeing as he is wicketkeeper-good spot

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I'll take that; a 16 point profit on the Carey buy and 2 out of 3 on the fixed odds performance bets. (Also right to swerve Buttler who was the only other player who made the shortlist.) Woakes and Archer also obliged in getting the 30+ tournament wickets bet over the line.

Thanks @Fader and @waynecoyne as without your prompting I wouldn't have looked at this match.

I'll have a look to see if anything appeals ahead of the final on Sunday.

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I'm always a bit surprised that these stats about "they don't play well there" get as much coverage as they do, because the sample size is so small it's unreal. I really don't think it applies at all.

As for NZ at 11/4, it's definitely too big, but if England are on song it looks a fairly comfortable win. Perhaps trading NZ in play might be the right move. :ok 

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