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StevieDay1983

2019 Cricket World Cup

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I can see it happening if someone blitzes a couple of games and tops up in the others but I'm not convinced it's a big enough price for that line so I'll swerve it. Buttler is as big as 10/1 to hit most 6s in the tournament.

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On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 2:47 PM, waynecoyne said:

I am looking forward to reading the racing post preview which will probably be published on the Tuesday of next week (i'm guessing -championship play off final on Monday). Anybody know when it will be published?

this is on wednesday

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On 5/25/2019 at 1:12 PM, Stegosaurus said:

Australia to win the tournament for me.

 

I think England’s price is far too short - the straight-knockout format of the semis and final doesn’t give enough advantage to the better teams - the tournament should have gone with some sort of weighted play-off structure. England will surely find some way to mess it up, I don’t think their bowling will hold up under pressure and they’ve always got a batting collapse in them.

India won’t win outside the Indian sub-continent, especially with Kohli out of form.

Australia are proven winners time and again, and Smith and Warner will feel they have to redeem themselves. Warner’s IPL form was ridiculously good, and if he can repeat that in one of the two knockout matches, Australia will be well on their way to winning the tournament.

 

By the way, I only started following cricket in 2013, through the IPL. Was MS Dhoni an amazing player before this? I regularly hear commentators and Indians going on about how great he is, but I’ve seen very little evidence of this in the past six years. He scores so slowly (out today for 17 from 42 deliveries), he usually kills an innings stone dead. On the occasional occurrence that he manages to stick around and then make up his scoring rate enough to win the match, he is hailed as a legend. The only role I’ve seen him able to do is come in in the last four-five overs of a comfortable T20 chase and finish the job calmly, but I’ve not seen him do enough to be included in a team, let alone hailed as a legend!

Do you know what, I was thinking this after watching them against England. I think the boo boys could motivate Smith et al to performing better than expected. Plus, they are like Germany in the football. No matter how poor they are during the years between World Cup tournaments they always seem to step up their game. Winning 4 of the last 5 tournaments shows that. I was listening to the preview show on 5 Live the other day and Phil Tufnell said you can't rule out India. They arguably have the best batsman and best bowler in the world. Can they deliver it on British soil though? I still think it is England's tournament to lose but if it isn't England then I'd be astonished if it's not India or Australia.

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Outsiders for me in the top batsman line up. I do like Smith to be honest, but at 16 it's not quite enough for me to be tempted so I'll go with these boys who all have good chances and will get plenty of time to bat.

1pt E/W F.Du Plessis (WC Top Batsman) 33/1 betvictor (paying 4 places)
1pt E/W S.Hope (WC Top Batsman) 33/1 bet365 (paying 4 places)
0.5pt E/W KL Rahul (WC Top Batsman) 50/1 ladbrokes (paying 4 places)
0.5pt E/W T.Iqbal (WC Top Batsman) 66/1 ladbrokes (paying 4 places)

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Be gentle with me but here's a few more specials I've backed! :unsure

You might think I've gone a bit OTT here but I've been through hundreds of these bets and rejected most as rank bad value. Where relevant, I've compared the spread expectations to the line/price I've taken and had a look at the player stats. I've ranked the bets as A, B or C bets based on my assessment of the value to "muggyness" ratio having looked at them again after a night's sleep.

A Bets (confident the price is value)

Maxwell and Finch to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 7/2 with Lads - stats say this may be a stretch but the spreads have them in for 30 so, at such a big price to hit that line, it seems a solid enough bet.

Woakes and Archer to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 9/4 with Lads - spreads similar here, 30 being pretty much their expected haul but stats seem more encouraging so happy that this is a similarly strong bet despite the shorter price.

B Bets (reasonably happy with these but not quite as confident)

Root to score 500+ runs at 5/4 with Lads - Spreads pitch him at around 525 while elsewhere he's 10/11 to go either under or over 500.5 (down from a higher line previously). Stats suggest none of these prices or lines are way off but I think I'm getting odds against about a coin toss at worst. Just realised I've already posted this bet but might as well leave it here having typed that rationale out!

De Kock to take 10+ catches at 6/4 with Lads - No spreads as such for this but seems to be the minimum they have him in for when you look at SA wicket keeper performance being pitched around the 600 mark (1 point per run, 10 per catch and 25 per stumping). Again, much closer to a coin toss for me.

Starc and Cummins to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 6/5 with Lads - Spreads have them in for 35 so I think the price should be shorter or the line should be higher. Not a mouthwatering price for a tournament long bet but it was good enough to tempt me in.

Buttler and Stokes to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 3/1 with Lads - Spreads put them in for around 25 so this bet is more likely to lose than win but the price still seems a bit generous.

C Bet (mug/fun punt)

Gayle to hit a 6 in every group game at 20/1 with PP - small stakes, one of those bets that caught my eye and I'd rather be on it and lose than risk the regret of noticing it but choosing not to back it!

Feel free to let me know if any of those strike you as diamonds or dogs!

 

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12 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Be gentle with me but here's a few more specials I've backed! :unsure

You might think I've gone a bit OTT here but I've been through hundreds of these bets and rejected most as rank bad value. Where relevant, I've compared the spread expectations to the line/price I've taken and had a look at the player stats. I've ranked the bets as A, B or C bets based on my assessment of the value to "muggyness" ratio having looked at them again after a night's sleep.

A Bets (confident the price is value)

Maxwell and Finch to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 7/2 with Lads - stats say this may be a stretch but the spreads have them in for 30 so, at such a big price to hit that line, it seems a solid enough bet.

Woakes and Archer to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 9/4 with Lads - spreads similar here, 30 being pretty much their expected haul but stats seem more encouraging so happy that this is a similarly strong bet despite the shorter price.

B Bets (reasonably happy with these but not quite as confident)

Root to score 500+ runs at 5/4 with Lads - Spreads pitch him at around 525 while elsewhere he's 10/11 to go either under or over 500.5 (down from a higher line previously). Stats suggest none of these prices or lines are way off but I think I'm getting odds against about a coin toss at worst. Just realised I've already posted this bet but might as well leave it here having typed that rationale out!

De Kock to take 10+ catches at 6/4 with Lads - No spreads as such for this but seems to be the minimum they have him in for when you look at SA wicket keeper performance being pitched around the 600 mark (1 point per run, 10 per catch and 25 per stumping). Again, much closer to a coin toss for me.

Starc and Cummins to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 6/5 with Lads - Spreads have them in for 35 so I think the price should be shorter or the line should be higher. Not a mouthwatering price for a tournament long bet but it was good enough to tempt me in.

Buttler and Stokes to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 3/1 with Lads - Spreads put them in for around 25 so this bet is more likely to lose than win but the price still seems a bit generous.

C Bet (mug/fun punt)

Gayle to hit a 6 in every group game at 20/1 with PP - small stakes, one of those bets that caught my eye and I'd rather be on it and lose than risk the regret of noticing it but choosing not to back it!

Feel free to let me know if any of those strike you as diamonds or dogs!

 

i had a look on paddys website for the chris gayle bet (the worry with this is will he play every game?)

and noticed they are offering 11/1 on him to hit the most sixes which seems generous and maybe safer

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22 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

i had a look on paddys website for the chris gayle bet (the worry with this is will he play every game?)

and noticed they are offering 11/1 on him to hit the most sixes which seems generous and maybe safer

Took me a minute to find it (a boosted "Power Price") but I've had the modest stake allowed on that. 7/1 best elsewhere, shouldn't be double digit odds if SPIN's take on the individual player sixes total is in the right ballpark.

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4 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

west indies have scored 421 v new zealand. Their outright win price of 20/1 looks too big (hills)

West Indies remind me of Brazil at football on their day brillant but build you up then let you down

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On 5/23/2019 at 2:47 PM, waynecoyne said:

I am looking forward to reading the racing post preview which will probably be published on the Tuesday of next week (i'm guessing -championship play off final on Monday). Anybody know when it will be published?

As you subsequently said; in the paper tomorrow but it's available to read on the website now.

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14 hours ago, Stegosaurus said:

I might back the West Indies to win a Super Over competition, or a six-hitting competition, but to win an 11-match, 50-over tournament is way beyond their capabilities as a team.

Any inclination to lay them, given how bullish you are about their (lack of) prospects? Or might you just oppose them selectively in individual games? I tend to agree with the prevailing consensus that they can beat anyone on their day but are too inconsistent to win the tournament but they’re neither a back nor a lay for me at the odds on offer.

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World Cup is on us again. As a Saffer disappointment is just a game away.  One of the first times SA comes into a world cup, under the radar. I'm actually quite happy AB de Villiers is not playing, as it has created a void, that players have to step up and fill.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how Aiden Markram goes in the tournament. He is young, but supa talented, with a great eye.. My feeling is that he will break a lot of records, and will captain SA for years to come in multiple formats of the game. Balance, power,  mentally strong, with that extra 1/15th of second of time.  He captained the SA under 19's that won their world cup a few years ago.  Aged 22, the world is at his feet ... now step up and deliver on your talent and capability.

This kid is going to open a lotta eyes here ... world cup top run getter perhaps ?

The beauty of this world cup is that all teams play 9 group games. So it is a truer test because you all face each other. Every individual player has a possible 9 chances to shine, so individual bets (top run getter, top wicket taker etc) make more sense here.

My feeling is it is better to go for top run getter, rather than a bowler and Markram is my pick.  Hopefully a perfect sunny day on Thurs...

Edited by neilovan

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England vs South Africa

It's finally here! The 2019 Cricket World Cup starts with host nation England taking on perennial under-achievers South Africa in the opening game. First ball is at 10:30am at the The Oval. Can the favourites to win the tournament get off to a positive start or will there be an early upset?

England are considered by many both on here and in the media to be the team to beat. An array of quality one-day batsmen and bowlers appears to show little weakness and it would be hard to argue that they don't have the best squad. The format of this tournament also means the better teams have more chance of putting results together to reach the final stages.

South Africa have got the odd fan amongst the pundits but many are deeming it to be a shock if they manage to qualify for the final four. They may possess two of the top five ODI batsmen in the shape of Faf du Plessis and Quinton de Kock but after that their talent is in short supply. The bowling attack in particular is suffering with the absence of Dale Steyn and Anrich Nortje. Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi have also been hampered by injuries recently so might not be 100% match fit after their IPL seasons finished early.

This is a game that could have posed problems for England if South Africa were at full strength but the severely limited bowling attack of the visitors means this should be a standard win for the host nation. Backing Jason Roy or Jonny Bairstow to be England's top batsman looks to be a solid bet with Du Plessis as the South African top scorer is also decent value. I can't see anything other than an England victory.

Highest First 15 Overs: England @ 1.62 with William Hill

Top South Africa Batsman: Faf du Plessis  5.50 with Paddy Power

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40 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

England vs South Africa

It's finally here! The 2019 Cricket World Cup starts with host nation England taking on perennial under-achievers South Africa in the opening game. First ball is at 10:30am at the The Oval. Can the favourites to win the tournament get off to a positive start or will there be an early upset?

England are considered by many both on here and in the media to be the team to beat. An array of quality one-day batsmen and bowlers appears to show little weakness and it would be hard to argue that they don't have the best squad. The format of this tournament also means the better teams have more chance of putting results together to reach the final stages.

South Africa have got the odd fan amongst the pundits but many are deeming it to be a shock if they manage to qualify for the final four. They may possess two of the top five ODI batsmen in the shape of Faf du Plessis and Quinton de Kock but after that their talent is in short supply. The bowling attack in particular is suffering with the absence of Dale Steyn and Anrich Nortje. Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi have also been hampered by injuries recently so might not be 100% match fit after their IPL seasons finished early.

This is a game that could have posed problems for England if South Africa were at full strength but the severely limited bowling attack of the visitors means this should be a standard win for the host nation. Backing Jason Roy or Jonny Bairstow to be England's top batsman looks to be a solid bet with Du Plessis as the South African top scorer is also decent value. I can't see anything other than an England victory.

Highest First 15 Overs: England @ 1.62 with William Hill

Top South Africa Batsman: Faf du Plessis  5.50 with Paddy Power

Hmm, not sure the talent is in short supply as Amla, Markram, Morris, Miller, van de Dussen are all capable. You just don't walk into a world cup side if you can't play a bit. They will probably bat around Amla or Markram, so I would expect one of those 2 to go quite deep into the innings. Toss seems a big one to win, as the ball could do plenty early.

I think the highest 15 England is a good bet, but I don't fancy du Plessis as top scorer. One of the top 3 (de Kock, Markram or Amla will get there).

The bowling attack of Ngidi, Rabada, probably Chris Morris and Andile Phehlukwayo, and a very tricky Tahir will cause plenty of problems.  If SA win the toss I would back them for the win here.

Edited by neilovan

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I have SA on other bets otherwise I would see SA as value here. I fancy Amla to be top batsman and for England i think Stokes or Buttler as I can see a couple getting caught by in my eyes the best bowling team in this event. There is more talent in this SA team then people think.

Are you sure Makram is playing? I think they'll side with Van Der Dussen. I expect a decent match here. Phehlukwayo could be the wildcard today.

2pts J.Buttler top england batsman 11/2 bet365
2pts Amla top SA batsman 4/1 bet365
1pt Stokes top england batsman 9/1 bet365

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33 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Hmm, not sure the talent is in short supply as Amla, Markram, Morris, Miller, van de Dussen are all capable. You just don't walk into a world cup side if you can't play a bit. They will probably bat around Amla or Markram, so I would expect one of those 2 to go quite deep into the innings. Toss seems a big one to win, as the ball could do plenty early.

I think the highest 15 England is a good bet, but I don't fancy du Plessis as top scorer. One of the top 3 (de Kock, Markram or Amla will get there).

The bowling attack of Ngidi, Rabada, probably Chris Morris and Andile Phehlukwayo, and a very tricky Tahir will cause plenty of problems.  If SA win the toss I would back them for the win here.

Yes, sorry, forgot to mention Amla because he's just returned for this tournament. I still think the others lack the consistency needed to cause any real problems that can counter their lacklustre bowling attack. As I said, I just think due to the recent injuries of Ngidi and Rabada they might struggle against an aggressive England batting order.

@Fader, I see what you mean about South Africa being value but I think having felt similarly about Pakistan in those ODI matches I've decided to learn from my mistakes and back the England win. :lol

I should also add that I do have a soft spot for South Africa. Their head coach Ottis Gibson was Glamorgan's overseas player when I started going down to Sophia Gardens to watch their games. Met him quite a few times and he was always a pleasure to speak to.

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1 hour ago, Stegosaurus said:

312 should be a fairly routine chase really, that’s disappointing from South Africa, although the Amla injury might have been a big contributing factor there.

Jofra Archer is noising me up already, it’s gonna be a long month or two having to listen to the English media wanging on about how great they think he is.

A strange game. SA pegged them back pretty well and 310 looked possible. No demons in that track at all.

But it looks like they have team selection wrong. Amla has been an incredible servant and ambassador for SA cricket but his powers are on the wane. Duminy is a bits and pieces player, who has not put in a match winning performance for 5 years. Gotta be playing Miller and Morris instead. Miller (to his credit) has never been the same since the incident in the IPL (he hit a six in a game that hit a spectator in the eye, and blinded the person) . It really messed him up with subconscious guilt.  Both are potential match winners. Miller also had the additional problem of always batting in a sticky situation. Either have a blast at the end of an innings, or dig the team out early. Very infrequently is the table set for him.

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2 hours ago, Stegosaurus said:

312 should be a fairly routine chase really, that’s disappointing from South Africa, although the Amla injury might have been a big contributing factor there.

Jofra Archer is noising me up already, it’s gonna be a long month or two having to listen to the English media wanging on about how great they think he is.

I thought archer's black arm strapping contrasted nicely with the pale blue shirt

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West indies Vs Pakistan

I fancy West Indies here. Pakistan just do not feel me with any kind of confidence. I picked West Indies as an outsider pre tournament and if they cannot win matches like this they are not going to make the top 4. On such a tiny pitch I would expect many runs today and many 6s. Indies have so many powerful players who can hit the boundries. I have Hope as a top batsman bet this World Cup, otherwise I would be on him to top score for WIndies today.

4pts W.Indies to win / Most sixes / Highest 1st 15 runs 11/4 Paddypower
2pts F.Zaman top pakistan batsman 4/1 paddypower
1pt S. Hope Man Of The Match 12/1 paddypower
0.5pts W.Indies to score over 500 runs 66/1 paddypower

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52 minutes ago, Stegosaurus said:

How does that work in terms of your payout?

Is it the same rules on different sites?

Is it the same rules if bowlers take the same number of wickets, or does it go to economy or number of balls bowled or something like that?

Thanks

Yeah, I think it's different everywhere. Rather annoying really because Zaman had the better rate which in my eyes mean he should have won but with PaddyPower they gave me half the winnings.

Also good to see Pooran get the 6s at the end. the 11/4 was also a winner.

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1 hour ago, Stegosaurus said:

How does that work in terms of your payout?

Is it the same rules on different sites?

Is it the same rules if bowlers take the same number of wickets, or does it go to economy or number of balls bowled or something like that?

Thanks

Sorry just saw the last part of your question. Normally I think with bowlers, it's economy.

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NZ Vs Sri Lanka :

Another mis-match tomorrow I think. I can't see anything but a New Zealand win. I think the likes of Dilshan could still be in this team. The quality is very poor. The only shining light for Sri Lanka is the legend that is Angelo Mathews who is still around and should be able to put a 30-50 away hopefully but other than that I expect a precession for NZ. Boult should be the man for the job with the ball although Ferguson is one to watch.

5pts NZ to win the match AND have the Most 6s 6/5 paddypower
2pts T.Boult top NZ bowler 7/2 William Hill
2pts A.Mathews top SRI batsman 4/1 paddypower
1pt T.Boult Man Of The Match 15/1 unibet

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On 5/23/2019 at 1:15 PM, harry_rag said:

I'd already decided to go with the lowest team total <100 bet at 7/2 before I'd realised there were less minnows taking part this year. I've had a saver on it being <120 at 2/1 with Skybet which seems a more likely outcome for the 10 teams taking part.

Nearly landed both of those with just 2 matches played but at least the saver part is already in. On reflection, 2/1 was clearly a great price while it lasted given that the <120 line ended up being offered at between 8/11 and 6/5 by 4 different firms.

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13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

NZ/SL: Boult top NZ bowler at 7/2 with Hills.

RP tip this at 11/4 so looks worth chancing at the boosted odds.

I was thinking this was a great bet but Boult hasn't been up to his usual standards today. Quite frightening given New Zealand are giving Sri Lanka a bit of a battering at the crease. I know nobody is expecting much from Sri Lanka who are a lifetime away from the World Cup winners of 1996 but this will be an encouraging display so far for the New Zealanders.

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