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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - May 13 - May 19

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Naomi Osaka to beat Kiki Bertens at 1.87 with 888sport

Osaka is not at her best on clay as far as I know but she can as everyone play to some extent on the surface and she's after all world no.1 and her game in Rome hasn't looked bad.

Kiki has already dropped sets to Amanda Anisimova and CSN and doesn't feel as hot as last week and she should be happy with a title and quarterfinal before Roland Garros. I think Naomi want's this more than Kiki.

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5 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Diego Schwartzman to beat Kei Nishikori at 2.40 with 888sport

I think Diego deserves a lot of credit for getting to the quarters and here he's up against Kei who had lots of problems last match when he beat J-L Struff. I think Diego has found his game on clay again after lots of poor performances, he's my favourite to get into the semi in this match.

Yes, i have the same signal from my radar, hope opinion of three people wouldn't disappoint.

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3 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Roger Federer at 1.71 with 888sport

Stefanos could acctually accomplish this. He can beat Roger this time. He got a chance on clay and he's already beaten him on hardcourt. Reason why Roger won last time so easy was probably that Stefanos was a little fatigued so this time I think the odds are correct and the greek takes it.

I bet on Federer instead :)

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4 hours ago, four-leaf said:

btw @CzechPunter it looks like you were one week to early with Roy Smith to beat Di Wu since he did it in straight sets this week. So that's a pity but I think you were just unlucky on that one when Roy wins the week after as it showed that he acctually could beat the chinese but he just fell apart last week. To bad you don't know how well the guy can hold up from time to time, he doesn't seem to be able to string back to back wins togheter either. I don't think he has done that so far this season but this time he met Dudi Sela in second round so I think he's excused for that loss.

Seems to be the story of my recent weeks, just bad beats. Good thing that I did well before that. :ok

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1 minute ago, CzechPunter said:

Seems to be the story of my recent weeks, just bad beats. Good thing that I did well before that. :ok

I feel like creating a new topic about updates on our off-season bets like last season. Can I create a such topic so we can have updates on those bets there? Just to see how it goes.

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Sandro Ehrat to beat Lorenzo Giustino at 2.03 with 888sport

Matchup problems here for Lorenzo. They've met twice in 2013 and 2014 and Sandro won both in straight sets on clay and Sandro is surely on the rise big time. I like Sandro a lot since seeing him play this tight match with Tennys Sandgren in Tallahassee. He pushed Tommy Paul the week after to and he's been rocksolid in Lisbon this week losing no sets yet. Time for Lorenzo to leave the tournament at the hands of Sandro I belive.

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9 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Diego Schwartzman to beat Kei Nishikori at 2.40 with 888sport

I think Diego deserves a lot of credit for getting to the quarters and here he's up against Kei who had lots of problems last match when he beat J-L Struff. I think Diego has found his game on clay again after lots of poor performances, he's my favourite to get into the semi in this match.

@four-leaf Totally agree with you and I followed your recommendation. Diego Schwartzman may not go much more further, but it was definitely a lot better than Nishikori, who is recently struggling, especially on clay. Good call!

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Stefanos Tsitsipas/Rafa Nadal total games first set over 10.5 at 3.75 with betfair

Stefanos looks better this week than last and has had some suitable rest with rain delays, short matches and a walkover. I don't think we will see any easier match for Rafa this time. Nando Verdasco fell apart and it's not a big surprise but Stefanos shouldn't fall apart. I see this match as one that should be tight but the only value I can find on betfair is over 10.5 games in first set. How likely is that to happen? It's just as likely as the odds suggest I'd say but where there's value I want in and since bet365 is 3.50 on the same bet I think there is value on betfair.

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Marc Andrea Huesler to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 7.73 with pinnacle

I'm not allowed to bet on this myself since pinnacle has blocked swedish customers from betting with them since January 1 this year because of the new swedish bettinglaw. Anyway Marc is coming into this in a pretty good spot. He's at his best on clay and has recently won his first challenger title but it was on hard but doesn't matter here. While I think Marc comes in a good spot I think Grigor comes into this in a pretty bad spot and he literally sucks nowadays so I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here.

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Since @DrO so kindly asked - I don't think that there's any value in the match of the day. Nadal is finally in a clay finals, but Djokovic has been the better player by far so far in the clay court season and I'm not getting the right vibes from Nadal right now. He's clearly not in a great shape fitness-wise and Djokovic is going to push him much more than any of the other guys so far. Had the Serb not played two long back-to-back matches, I'd be on him at the current odds. But he has - and he had to run a lot against both Diego and Juan Martin, quite late on both days as well, that might be a factor if this goes to the third set, which it very well might. If I was absolutely pushed to post a bet, I'd back Djokovic to win a set.

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I'm a little surprised to see Nadal so short (4/7 best price).  I know he's been playing better recently and appears to be getting stronger as the clay season progresses and was impressive against Tsitsipas in the semi.

Djokovic by contrast has been mugging about in some of his recent matches and should have lost to Del Potro in the quarters. But we know he raises his game massively when playing Nadal and has has the better of him in recent years, even on clay. 

I agree with you CP, although Nadal appears to be getting stronger, I still think he's missing something and I'm not convinced he can regain some of his old mojo. Djokovic is a bad match up for him, so at the prices I'll be on the Serb.

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